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Sunday, 31 August 2003  
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Logic

Public protest demonstrations took place in parts of the country last week organised by the JVP and significant sections of the People's Alliance. The demonstrations were, once again, against the Norwegian role in our peace process and, specifically, against the proposal for an interim administration for the North-East region.

The JVP and the PA make up the bulk of the Parliamentary Opposition. Even if the JVP-PA do not succeed in swinging public opinion actively in their favour, they can, at the very least, confuse popular thinking and weaken public action or electoral decisions that were tending towards the other direction.

In recent years, the majority Sinhalese have, in a historic shift in collective political orientation, begun voting in elections at every level persistently in favour of inter-ethnic accommodation and peace, that is, in mass support of those political parties that actively point the nation in that direction. This is in contrast to the early post-Independence decades when the Sinhalese vote bank was the basis for an exclusively 'Sinhala' nationhood and a majority ethnic-dominated State.

Furthermore, public opinion polls in the past several years have indicated that in-between elections too, public opinion among the Sinhalese remains in favour of governmental policies that implement peace-making and a political settlement.

These polls also indicate that, while the citizenry of all ethnic communities - is broadly in favour of ethnic accommodation and power-sharing, there is considerable uncertainty and worry about the exact nature of this accommodation and the ramifications of any structural reform. Even here, it is not a general confusion. People are already beginning to acknowledge the need for third party intervention and also for some form of interim set-up in the North-East.

That is why the very same political leader who brought in the Norwegians as a third party facilitator and also first proposed an 'interim council' to the LTTE, got popularly re-elected as the executive President of the country. That is why this same leader's political party was briefly re-elected to governmental power in 2000 and then, in 2001, was voted in with the largest number of Opposition seats. That is also why the current Prime Minister who, while in Opposition, advocated a radical ethnic power-sharing formula, was popularly elected together with his United National Front coalition as the Government. And this growing elector sophistication is also why those that yet advocate either Sinhala majoritarianism or a military solution or both have not been voted either into Government or as the principal Parliamentary Opposition. And public opinion polls continue to affirm this general voter orientation in favour of not just peace and ethnic accommodation but also of some interim mechanisms.

What this all mean then, is that the basic need for inter-ethnic equality and power-sharing is no longer a major debate at national level. What needs intensive public discussion today is not so much whether there should be negotiations or even whether there should be an interim administration, but, what should be the specifics of the interim mechanisms and what should be the nature of the fundamental political reform that will ensure a permanent settlement.

The current JVP-PA protests are a continuation of the previous JVP posture of general hostility to the peace process and to radical structural reform. As in the past, the present protest actions may not necessarily mobilise large sections of the citizenry against the peace initiatives. But given the public uncertainties, especially among the Sinhalese, about specifics, such as the interim structure, this kind of radical dissent, will serve only to further confuse the mass of people and thereby slowdown the peace process. Even more confusing to the people is the fact that the PA, whose leader, the President yet ostensibly supports the peace process, is joining in with the JVP in the protests.

The alternative to the peace process is well known in this country because we have experienced the terror of ethnic rioting and secessionist insurgency and counter-insurgency. Do these political leaders want this to recur? Is the root of their logic social concern or, simply political power for themselves and their immediate constituency?

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