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| Sunday, 2 November 2003 |
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Toppling the Government Is the PA's threat wise at this juncture? Sixth Sense by Raj Gonsalkorale The People's Alliance has claimed that they have the support of some UNF parliamentarians to defeat the government of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe during the budget vote in December this year. If this comes to pass, it will be due to the short sightedness of the government in the way they made the dealings with the LTTE such an exclusive process leaving the President and the PA out of the process, and also on perceptions of elitism and isolationism it has created around itself arising from an image it has built around itself. The corporate image projected by the UNF government, and what it represents and does not represent, as well as the way they have managed the negotiation process with the LTTE, may lead to its downfall judging from the rhetoric of the PA and its supporters when announcing plans to spearhead a protest campaign, bring in one million people to Colombo, and topple the government in December. Where does the UNF image come in with regard to the PA campaign? It comes in rightly or wrongly with perceptions many people have that the UNF government has been more concerned with the corporate community at the expense of the "common" man, people who earn low wages, and those who have not been fortunate in finding employment, and others like farmers and fishermen, all or most of whom belong to the middle or lower middle income class. The astronomical cost of living has hit these people so hard, they are bound to turn against the UNF government even though the PA has not articulated any significant economic and social policies to address the cost of living issue. In some ways, it is unfortunate that the UNF government has not been given time to demonstrate results of their policies. Recent Central Bank statistics indicate that the economy has grown by some 5 1/2% during 2003, a healthy rise over the figures in year 2000. It may be argued that it is too early for the benefits of such a growth to percolate down to the ordinary person who is undergoing tremendous suffering today on account of the high cost of living. Again, the image comes in here, as the government led by the Prime Minister is seen strutting the world looking like westerners, very corporate looking and sounding like that, when we are not westerners. Such an observation may be very unkind to the Prime Minister who is as concerned or even more concerned about the welfare of the ordinary person than some opposition politicians. However, that is not what the image projects and arguably, even results project. Our ready embrace of things not home grown or "national" and our ever ready willingness to ape the west, does not do justice to our culture, and when leaders openly act to reconstruct our image, it certainly marginalises many Sri Lankans and it also makes a laughing stock of our people who are seen wearing suits in sweltering heat just to keep up with the image that is being promoted at the highest levels. The other issue that might impact on the future of the UNF government is the way they have handled the peace process, and perceptions, real or imaginary, that they have given in, far more than necessary to the LTTE to maintain the peace process. Whether the PA would have or could have done any different to the UNF is a matter of conjecture. It is always easy to criticise from the Opposition, as they have the luxury of freedom without responsibility. However, perhaps what the Prime Minister has not realised is that the current Sri Lankan political situation is different, and that the Opposition, represented by the President, is also in power. It is one thing to marginalise an Opposition. But it's a folly to marginalise a powerful President. The Presidents contribution to the peace process is well known, even though the LTTE has and still is unfairly criticising her and labelling her as an impediment to the peace process. It is well known that the President was the first to initiate a dialogue with the LTTE and also propose wide ranging constitutional changes to address the ethnic issue. She is also credited with initiating changes to move the focus of the conflict from war to peace. She is also the leader who invited the Norwegians to act as peace brokers. However, her efforts were not fruitful and the war intensified when talks with the LTTE broke down. Her constitutional proposals also did not move forward when the UNP basically abandoned discussions more than 80% of the way of progress on a joint effort to find a resolution to the conflict. It seemed that nothing had changed from past experiences and the undercutting of initiatives taken by past Prime Ministers since 1956. However, in this instance, much credit should go to the President and the PA for not standing in the way of the initiatives taken by the Prime Minister, even though no consultations have occurred between the two major political parties about either the CFA or subsequent interim administration proposals submitted to the LTTE. No doubt, this must be testing the patience of the President and the PA for being sidelined in this manner. It is interesting to note that, in contrast to this lack of consultation among the major political groupings in the South, or even for that matter, any consultations and research into possible self-governing models on the part of the government, the LTTE has had very wide consultations amongst Tamil political groupings and also researched widely on possible models. It is very likely that the LTTE model, when it is proposed, will have the backing of all major Tamil political groupings, whether this is by choice or coercion. While no coercion is possible or advocated in the more democratic South, it is more than likely, yet again, that the major political groupings and the two power centres will disagree on the detail of proposals that the LTTE will submit next week. Lack of consultation and making this an exclusive process maybe taken as the principle reason for a very likely impasse that is looming, and it is possible that the decision of the President and the PA to take advantage of the situation and move to bring down the government is based on their reading that it is the opportune moment to act. Such an act may be construed as detrimental to the peace process, detrimental to the economic progress of the country and the political stability in the country. All political leaders and political parties are opportunistic, and the President and the PA are no different. However, one cannot brush aside the short sightedness of the UNF, in not making the President and the PA co owners of peace negotiations, as their own folly. In addition to this glaring strategic mistake, the UNF has also committed another blunder in giving in to the dictates of the LTTE and not making the Muslim community an inclusive member of the negotiating process. A recent speech made by Mr Lakshman Kadirgamar in Parliament clearly outlines the danger of this shortsighted strategy. The political turmoil that may unfold in the coming months is definitely not good for Sri Lanka, and whatever economic progress the UNF government has made in the last two years is bound to get affected as a result. To make matters worse, the PA has not spelt out how they would address the ethnic issue, other than saying their starting point would be the constitutional proposals initiated by the President some years ago. The LTTE rejected them at the time, and they do not appear to have changed their mind about them since then. In economic management, the PA has not identified measures that they would introduce to bring down the cost of living. Neither have they articulated policies they will adopt to improve on the economic growth achieved by this government. While the Wickremesighe government may be seen by some as an elitist government, virtually run by a kitchen cabinet with no links to, or an association with the ordinary people of the country, the PA has not shown that they have the expertise or the persons or the policies to deal with the ethnic issue or the economy. One initiative taken by sections of more enlightened leadership of the PA, to broad base their appeal by including the JVP in the alliance was undermined by other sections of the Alliance with less awareness of reality. This could prove a costly mistake for the PA, as the JVP is a major force to be reckoned within the country today, particularly in the South. A change of government may occur due to the shortsightedness of one political group. Whether this is best for the country at this stage remains a burning question. |
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