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| Sunday, 19 September 2004 |
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Bush, Kerry camps both claim momentum in US race WASHINGTON, Sept 18 (Reuters) The campaigns of Republican President George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry both claimed momentum on Friday amid a mix of polls offering a less-than-clear picture of the U.S. presidential race. The Bush campaign said public opinion surveys released this week showed Bush still enjoying his post-convention bounce, despite a Harris poll that gave Kerry a 1-point lead and a Pew poll that showed the race tied. "The average of all of these polls shows President Bush with a five-point lead, 50 percent to 45 percent," said Bush campaign spokesman Scott Stanzel. But Kerry's campaign said the race was closer and discounted a Gallup Poll survey that gave Bush a 13-point lead among likely voters. "Any advantage that (Bush) had over the post-convention period was fleeting, and we now are back to prosecuting this race from a place where we thought we'd be at this time," said Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart. But Bush's chief campaign strategist, Matthew Dowd, questioned that claim. "They expected to be behind two weeks after our convention and the president's approval above 50 percent? In a close race I like our candidate's record and message and poll position a lot better than theirs," Dowd said. The Kerry campaign is keen to show Bush's post-convention surge has ended. Candidates typically improve in the polls after their exposure at national conventions, called a bounce, but often lose that edge over time. Democratic pollster Tom Kiley said: "There was a legitimate question as to whether the post-convention bounce for Bush was in fact a bounce, a temporary bounce or a longer-term trend. That question has been answered conclusively this week. And the structure of this race (is) what it had been for months. It is a very closely contested contest over what the voters want." Bolstering the Bush campaign were a number of state-by-state polls, including one showing the race extremely close in Minnesota, typically a Democratic-leaning state, and one that showed Bush in striking range of Kerry in New Jersey, which in recent elections has tilted toward Democrats. Kerry senior adviser Tad Devine doubted either New Jersey or New York would defect from Kerry. "In order for the president to win a state like New York or New Jersey, he would have to defy all the historical trending and precedents that we know." Some political commentators have suggested the number of key battleground states may have shrunk from 18 to perhaps 12 due to Bush gains in, for example, Ohio and Missouri. Bush has had a lead in recent polling in hurricane-hit Florida but Devine predicted a "tight, hard-fought, contested election" in the state where the bitter 2000 recount battle was fought. The Pew Research Center sampled voters in two waves. The first poll of likely voters, taken Sept. 8-10, found Bush ahead by 16 percentage points. The second poll on Sept. 11-14, which had a 3.5 percentage point margin of error, found Bush with a statistically insignificant 1-point lead. Among registered voters, it was deadlocked. The Harris Interactive poll, which was conducted Sept. 9-13 and had a 3-point margin of error, found Kerry with a 1-point lead. A Harris poll in June gave Bush a 10-point lead. The Gallup Poll said Bush had a 55 percent to 42 percent lead over Kerry in a poll conducted Monday through Wednesday with a 3-point margin of error. |
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