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| Sunday, 21 November 2004 |
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Political inability of LTTE Comments & Analysis by Sentinel There was a flurry of activities in Colombo and Vanni last week. The Norwegian foreign minister, Jan Patterson arrived with much expectation that he could inject some sense into the Vanni leadership and bring them out of the political siege. The Norwegians must have also persuaded Anton Balasingam to be present during their meeting with the reclusive LTTE leader. LTTE's intransigence There has not even been the usual joint press conference with both the LTTE and the Norwegian mediator. Observers believe that the Norwegians are becoming increasingly frustrated with the LTTE's intransigence. Mr. Prabhakaran's smiles and hand shakes with Jan Patterson or Mr. Solheim's gentle peck on Adel's cheek for the TV crew all looked fine and cultured, however they failed to disguise the political inability of the LTTE to meaningfully engage the Sri Lankan Government. Instead it provided yet another opportunity and excuse for the Government to postpone the discussions on Tamil Autonomy. Let us consider, what the real obstacles to the continuation of this peace process are and the reasons provided by the LTTE for their inability to continue this process. The LTTE argues that they do not agree with the Government's position that the negotiations on core issues; meaning negotiations towards a final solution; needs to begin now. In other words LTTE oppose negotiations for a permanent solution. Balasingam said to the press "The Tamil people have been talking about a permanent settlement, about federalism for fifty years. We can go on talking. But the urgent humanitarian needs of our people have to be addressed soon." This candid statement starkly exposes the political inability of the LTTE. Firstly, indeed the Tamil people have been trying to negotiate with the Sri Lankan state for more than fifty years in different form and in different contexts. It is also true that the Tamil leaderships failed to secure a meaningful deal to meet the aspirations of our people. But they did not just go on talking as Mr. Balasingam understood, they attempted to secure agreements such as Bandaranaike - Chelvanayakam pact or used opportunities such as Indo-Lanka accord to realise the dream of regional autonomy. On both occasions these attempts were torpedoed the first one by the chauvinists and the second by the shortsighted opportunists from both communities. The question now is how the LTTE is going to approach this differently? Years ago the LTTE said that the talks have always failed so the only answer is to establish a separate state through an armed struggle. The LTTE's about turn to come back to a negotiated settlement route is also an admission that its armed struggle failed to deliver. It is in fact a realisation of LTTE's limitation. Some people may even forget the past and forgive the LTTE for taking the Tamil nation on such a detour to arrive where we began at a very high cost. But the Tamils will be genuinely offended by the LTTE's attempt to project the negotiations as a result of their military success. Duplicitous notion The notion that LTTE is maintaining a military balance with the Sri Lankan state is duplicitous and an insult to the intelligence of the Tamils. It is true that the LTTE is in a position to inflict lethal attacks on economic and political targets. This does not constitute a military balance in relation to Sri Lankan state. Al-Quaida was in a position to inflict heavy damage on USA on 9-11; it does not mean that Al-Quaida and USA are in a state of military balance. On the contrary it only gave an excuse and legitimacy for the USA to execute its political agenda regarding Afghanistan and Iraq. We all knew when the Indian Peacekeeping Force (IPKF) decided to withdraw due to internal political compulsions, the LTTE boasted that they have defeated the fourth largest army in the world; implying that the defeat of the Sri Lankan army and the subsequent establishment of Eelam were imminent. It is almost fourteen years since that tragic episode and where are we now? We as a nation are fast disintegrating, our social fabric is torn apart, our youths in Vanni and the Eastern provinces are almost condemned to live under one or the other military authority. So let us stop this fantasyland story of maintaining military balance with the Sri Lankan state. The central question is what the LTTE can do to improve the lives of the Tamils. It is becoming increasingly clear that the LTTE has no answer to this question. LTTE's only response is that they will further militarise the Tamil society where they will reign supreme. Democracy It is the well-argued political position that needs to be advanced. LTTE is said to have put so much effort in constructing this draft document for the Interim Self-governing Authority (ISGA). There is no rationale to be obsessed about the 'interim' nature of the solution. Only plausible reason is that they see the permanent solution would impede their attempt to tighten and legitimise their military grip on the Tamil society, which can only be achieved via an interim authority. Any permanent solution mediated by the International community has to ensure democracy, human rights and pluralism. LTTE appears to be apprehensive that these concepts would negate their existence. This is one of the obstacles to the progress in the talks. Secondly, LTTE's talk of "urgent humanitarian needs has to be addressed" is an attempt to exploit the plight and anxieties of those people who are trapped in this war. LTTE has been saying this for the last nineteen months. In fact they used this as an excuse to walk out of the direct negotiations. If the needs are so urgent, dragging the negotiations for nineteen long months does not seem to be logical. The Tamil people do not seriously believe that injecting millions of dollars into the LTTE coffers will alleviate the hardships of the Tamils in any way. On the contrary, going by the past experience it will only lead to an intensified conflict and hence more suffering to the people. Humanitarian need Tamil people do have an urgent humanitarian need. The continuing political killings must stop. Almost everyday somebody is murdered. Victims mostly those unfortunate youths who were trapped in this quagmire of conflict. The extortion racket in the name of 'taxation' must to an end. Child conscription in all form and manner must stop. Lastly there must be transparency in the ongoing relief and reconstruction work. This can only be guaranteed by a democratically elected element present in the interim arrangement. If the ISGA draft is such an important document, LTTE must be prepared to have a consultative process within the Tamil community to assess the merits of it. Mr. Balasingam's arrogance and the casual manner in which he says that the ISGA has been endorsed by the Tamils in the last general election is farcical and an affront to the common sense of the Tamils. All the observers condemned the last general election in the Tamil area. The fact remains that probably many LTTE backed candidates might have even won. So, as others such as the articulate lawyer Mr. Srikantha of TELO/TNA in Jaffna and the prominent leaders like Mr. V. Annathasangary of the TULF also would have won. This would have given LTTE some legitimacy but they opted to impose the only way they know and as a result made the whole election a joke. Apart from that, there has never been any informed debate about the content of the ISGA or the negotiating strategy. LTTE's aspiration of becoming elected representatives of Tamils is a dream not likely to be realised in the foreseeable future. Probably LTTE is fully aware of this and understandably opposed to free and fair elections in the North-East. LTTE should pick this up as a challenge and go for an internationally supervised free and fair election to prove its self-proclaimed credential as the representative of the Tamils. Democratic Tamils must contest such election and call for a plebiscite to determine the Tamil agenda for negotiation. President's India visit and Tamil anxieties The Sri Lankan President was on a five-day official visit to Delhi. Political observers believe that Indo-Lanka relations are at an all time high. It went through a difficult time during the Premadasa-Rajiv period when both countries were almost on the brink of war. It has been almost one and a half decades since that unfortunate sequence of events and they are slowly becoming a distant historical memory. Since then both Sri Lankan and Indian leaders of all parties have taken much care and carefully constructed the present state of relationship. On the Sri Lankan side both the UNP and the PA have worked without any contradiction and continue to consolidate each other's work in this regard. There is a concerted effort on both sides that this relationship is built on a non-partisan basis, thus keeping the opposition in both countries informed of all developments. Ranil's visit to Delhi last week and CBK's meeting with Ranil on the eve of her departure took place only in this context. The bogey of a Tamil Nadu factor dictating India's Sri Lankan policy has decisively receded into oblivion. Following the assassination of the young and charismatic leader Rajiv Gandhi it is impossible to sustain any support for the Sri Lankan Tamil cause in any part of India as long as it is dominated by the assassins (LTTE). So one cannot blame pragmatic Tamil Nadu leaders when they turn a blind eye and stop with simply issuing formal statements as and when needed. Spoilt child Where does this leave the Sri Lankan Tamil issue? Tamils are rather like a spoilt child seeking attention by indulging in unorthodox tantrums. On the one hand the LTTE has been sabre-rattling for the last two years of waging a war, and on the other hand it is crawling on its belly to the Europeans, Indians and Americans to lift the ban on them. It has become abundantly clear that the LTTE is not in a position to wage or sustain a conventional war with the Sri Lankan Army. The main component of their war will be suicide attacks on selected targets including its political opponents. In the present global tendency of war against terrorism that would be the end game for the LTTE. The LTTE is fully aware of this and it is hard to believe that they will put themselves into that position. The only way they can show their 'potency' is by continuing to kill political opponents and their innocent supporters. This will hurt no one except those killed. It is a bizarre situation, killings are continuing unabated but the LTTE is rewarded for not upsetting the Sri Lankan political status quo. The role of the Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission (SLMM), in covering up these murders and the moral cowardice of those perpetuating the sanctity of this peace process, is breathtaking. Tamil issues have become almost irrelevant other than the context of the global agenda of containing terrorism. Thanks to LTTE leader's single minded pursuit to achieve this status. We argue about the Defence Pact that is being discussed between the two countries and passing comments on it as if our views have any consequence. We do not even know what the contents are in this proposed pact. We know from past record that India does not need a pact with anybody to contain any LTTE excesses in India. In the past India has sunk a LTTE ship with one of their top leaders in it. It imprisoned Mr. Gopalaswamy for almost a year when he was an elected MP and it is said to have supplied vital information and provided logistical support for the Sri Lankan Navy to intercept LTTE ships in high seas. What did the LTTE do? Nothing. The LTTE is neither foolish nor has the guts to engage India. The message is clear, if the LTTE is wrong footed then it has to face the consequences. The Tamil-speaking people of Sri Lanka are isolated and they have become voiceless. After the last parliamentary election, elected Tamil MPs have become a laughing stock, some of them were even denied visas to visit western countries and one of them was even deported from India. This is the first time that such humiliation has been inflicted on elected MPs. Tamil society is in a pathetic state to put up with such insults. They have been caught between a Sri Lankan government, which is not prepared to address the core issue of Tamil autonomy, and the LTTE, who are unable to gain recognition from anybody (except the Norwegians), but still claim to represent the Tamils. Devolution It is very convenient for any Sri Lankan Government to use the LTTE as an excuse for not seriously considering devolution of powers to the Tamil region, otherwise SLG would have taken serious steps to implement some form of devolution while waiting for the LTTE. In this context there are genuine Tamil anxieties, which are not likely to be addressed in this important meeting. Both India and Sri Lanka are expected to offer reassurance that they are for the resumption of the peace talks. In other words they will put the ball in the LTTE's court. Observers believe that the Defence pact is more likely to deal with the long term strategic objectives of this region rather than focusing on any single irritant. The broader parameter that brings together India and Sri Lanka is the unity and territorial integrity of Sri Lanka. Tamil aspirations for reasonable autonomy has to wait until the LTTE transform itself into an organisation with common sense or an alternative pragmatic Tamil democratic leadership emerge and assert itself. Balasingam's confusion According to a pro LTTE website LTTE's theoretician and godfather Mr. Balasingam, denied the existence of the Oslo declaration and describes it as a 'record of decisions'. He states, "... there was not any specific proclamation titled the 'Oslo Declaration'. The decision to explore federalism was included in the record of decisions at the Oslo talks and signed by the chief negotiators of both delegations and the head of the Norwegian facilitating team". He further confuses this by contesting the contents of that 'record of decisions' by saying 'The Liberation Tigers' decision to explore federalism on the principle of internal self-determination, as a solution to Sri Lanka's ethnic conflict, does not entail an unconditional abandonment of the Tamils' right to external self-determination and secession". The International community and Sri Lanka watchers all over the world believe beyond any reasonable doubt that the LTTE has violated the sprit of the ceasefire agreement and has gone back on its undertaking signed in Oslo. |
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