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Polls in Lebanon

Globescan by M. P. Muttiah

Lebanon goes to polls on May 29 for the first time in 29 years without Syrian presence in the country. Syrian presence was not illegal since it was legitimised by the Lebanese Parliament during civil war from 1975 to 1990. Though the civil war ended in 1976, hostilities continued.

An agreement was reached to end the civil war. The Taif Agreement, named after a town in Saudi Arabia, where it was signed, set a 50-50 balance between Christians and Muslims in the Parliament and with powers of the branches of government. However, two important features of the agreement were not implemented. One was the plan to dismantle the sectarian structure of Lebanese politics, which had been long organised by parties which belonged certain religious factions. Major politicians represented mainly the interests of their own community-Christian Maronites, Sunni Muslims, Shiite Muslims or Druze.

The Taif Agreement also envisaged the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanese territory.Fifteen years later, nearly 15,000 out of 35,000 troops initially deployed were stationed in Lebanon. Syrian presence in Lebanon helped to maintain stability, but its refusal to leave following Israel's withdrawal from South Lebanon came under severe criticism.

The United States had begun to pressurise Syria to withdraw its forces. After the February 14 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, several other countries started to oppose Syrian presence. US President George Bush, who was visiting Europe at the time of Hariri's murder, and the 25-member European Union condemned the killing and demanded to abide by the UN resolution and withdraw Syrian troops from Lebanon. Syrian opposition groups headed by Walid Jumblat, the Druze leader and Amine Gemayel leader of the Kataeb along with Hariri's family, blamed Damascus for the killing.

Under pressure from the Opposition, Prime Minister Omar Karami's government resigned and Najib Mikati formed a new one promising early elections.

There were other forces that were interested in Syria's exit, such as the far-right Christians who were anxious to rouse opinion against Damascus, which aimed to weaken Syria and severe its alliance with Iran and Hizbollah. Nevertheless, Syria continued to demand Israel return the Golan Heights which was captured in 1967 war.

The United States, instead of pressurising Israel to return Golan Heights, banned US exports, besides food and medicine, severed banking relations, barred Syrian flights to and from the US under Syria Accountability Act. Under these circumstances, Syria had no alternative but to withdraw its forces.

The United States and the Lebanese opposition hope to defeat Syria's political allies at the elections. The US interest in Lebanon was to see the end of Syria's influence in Beirut. Now, the question is whether the stability maintained by Syrian presence would continue as various religious and political sections are determined to establish their dominance in Lebanese political arena.

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