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| Sunday, 12 June 2005 |
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Sethusamudram ship canal project : Is it worth the bother? by Rohan Mathes India doesn't have a continuous and navigable sea route around the peninsula, within her own territorial waters. Therefore, creating a navigable channel from the Indian Ocean to the Bay of Bengal, via the Gulf of Mannar, Adam's Bridge, Palk Bay and Palk Strait, within Indian territorial waters, has been a long-felt need. But the recent decision to go ahead with the controversial Sethusamudram Ship Canal Project (SSCP) has blossomed into a very contentious issue for Sri Lanka and the region. Proposals to build the canal had been considered since 1860, but not given adequate attention. After India gained independence, the government had constituted the Sethusamudram Project Committee in 1955. The Committee estimated a saving of 362 nautical miles in distance, if the canal was constructed, at an outlay of Indian Rs.998 lakhs at that time. This estimated amount was revised when the government of Madras wanted to increase the draft to thirty feet in 1963. On completion, the SSCP will permit ships otherwise circumnavigating Sri Lanka and sailing from the west to the east coast of India and vice versa, to save sailing time and fuel consumption. Sri Lanka after keeping mum for decades on the issue, has realised that the project would pose a major threat to the hub-port status of Colombo, and has come out strongly in several fronts. High-level Committees have been appointed to study and report on the repercussions of the proposed SSCP which has already been given the green light from the Indian government. Its environmental impact, the likely loss of livelihoods of the fishing community in the region, aggravation of natural calamities such as tsunamis and the presumed loss to Sri Lanka's maritime industry among others, are to be probed. Is there a maritime advantage for India from this proposed 300 meters wide, 152 km long canal? According to the Indian National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI), the average time saved for a single voyage would be around 24 hours, for an assumed ship speed of 12 knots. Nevertheless, the estimated saving does not account for reduced speeds during manoeuvring within the canal. So, analysts argue that in reality, the saving would drop drastically to around 12 hours, for a hypothetical 12 knots speed vessel. In contrast, analysts point out that in a case where a vessel sails from Singapore to Aden via Dondra Head, and the identical vessel sails from Singapore to Aden via Sethusamudram canal, the difference in distance would be negligible, if not more. Moreover, assuming the canal depth to be 12.5 meters, the vessels that could sail through the canal would have to be less than 11 meters in draft. Such vessels could only have a maximum capacity of around 2,000 TEUs. Nonetheless, vessels operating in the East West sea routes generally possess higher TEUs carrying capacities, and therefore would be deprived of passage via the said canal. Evaluating the scenario of Cochin becoming a transhipment hub, the assumption is that the main line vessels will come via Dondra Head, and only the feeder vessels operating through the East coast of India and Bangladesh would use the canal. Estimated number of feeder vessels sailing to this region as per current operations are 36 and these 36 sailings will transit the canal. Indian Shipping Corporation estimates 2004 vessels will transit the canal per year, or 6 vessels per day. In contrast, 47 vessels transit the Suez canal and 40 in the Panama canal, on average per day. Assuming transits per year are 2004 and the charge for each transit as US$ 10,000, the cost will be equivalent to the cost of time saved for a 2000 TEUs vessel. There is a possibility however, for the number of vessels transiting the Sethusamudram canal to decline with time, as shipping lines may use larger vessels which are unable to transit the canal. Therefore, the viability and the cost effectiveness of the project is in doubt. The SSCP will however pave the way for a shorter navigation route and substantial savings for shipping companies, exporters and importers, manufacturers and trade. It would facilitate coastal movements of domestic cargo and the rapid development of existing minor ports of Pondicherry, Cuddalore, Nagapattinam and Ramanathapuram. Fisheries harbours may develop and employment opportunities may be enhanced as a result of the development of new major and minor ports. The transhipment of Indian cargo from and via foreign territories would decrease and thereby save foreign exchange for India. The cost of building the canal at 12 meter depth is now estimated to be around US$ 400 million. There is some ambiguity on the Indian evaluation on its investment and return, as critics argue that there is little, if not nil commercial advantage in the project. Moreover, there are indications that the Sethusamudram channel, having the potential to transport high-energy waves from the North and the South during cyclones and tsunamis, may artificially make the region around the densely populated South Indian State of Kerala vulnerable to devastating tsunamis. Increased, consistent and unplanned dredging may unwittingly destroy a sea area which has one of the highest levels of primary production in the world. Instead of concentrating on a logical analysis of factors which indicate the project to be unfeasible and unviable, the project proponents expressed fictional discourses as to its potential utility. One such fiction churned out to obtain the green light for the project, from the Indian Premier Manmohan Singh, Congress President Sonia Gandhi and the rest of the hierarchy, was the canal's apparent capability of overcoming threats of the Sea Tigers led by Col. Soosai. India's defence strategy New Delhi's deliberations in the canal could best be understood by their ambitious and long-term strategic plans in becoming the naval superpower of the Indian Ocean. India had been largely pre-occupied with its mainland defence and security, with little interest and investment in naval matters. Nevertheless, two key events, such as the acquisition of Diego Garcia by the US and the US decision to send aircraft carrier 'USS Enterprise' to the Bengal Bay in 1971 December, to support Pakistan in the Bangladesh war, alerted their defence strategists to think more seriously of their naval security. Constructing the canal primarily for the provision of a continuous navigable route for the Indian Coast Guard and the Navy, could not be ruled out. A joint venture and a win-win solution The Sethusamudram passage would help India overcome naval deterrents and enhance economic and energy security. It would enable them to hold a power balance over strategic sea laws in the region, in their hands. It is in this context that Sri Lanka should examine the geo-political implications of the Sethusamudram, without ignoring the proximity of Jaffna to the project as well. It is quite unlikely now that India would abandon the proposed project altogether. Nonetheless, Sri Lanka should forward their case on its merits and demerits, with intent and will in order to draw the attention and persuade the Indian hierarchy to take decisions jointly and in consultation with their powerless but friendly neighbour, with goodwill and understanding. At best, Sri Lanka should press and opt for an amicable, profit-sharing and win-win solution for both countries, without being a part of the Indian 'big-brother' fiction.
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