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| Sunday, 10 July 2005 |
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P-TOMS: Agitation loses firepower by Jayatilleke de Silva P-TOMS has been signed and the signed version introduced to Parliament. Consultations regarding its implementation are going on at present. Soon P-TOMS would be a reality.
The anti-P-TOMS agitation has lost its firepower. Those that vowed to fast unto death are no more heard of or no more seen on the streets. Instead what we see is a withdrawal into the realm of litigation. Politicians are going to the Courts en masse and in competition with each other. They are paying huge sums as lawyer's fees. The latter too would not mind as long as they could acquire a spirit of 'patriotism' while not denying themselves the financial benefits of long-drawn litigation. The basic argument of the petitioners who throng Hulftsdorp is that P-TOMS is ultra-vires the Constitution. In the same way, the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) was also ultra-vires the Constitution. Both the JVP and the JHU did not, however, challenge the CFA in Court. The former was in the government too. Why this sudden burst of "patriotism"? We have to understand that both the CFA and the P-TOMS were responses to extra-ordinary situations, situations never even dreamt of by the forefathers who founded the Constitution. The first was a response to the stalemate in a two-decade old war when neither side could hope for complete victory. The latter was in response to an unprecedented and gigantic natural disaster - the tsunami. Extraordinary situations demand extraordinary responses or solutions. Hence, the genesis of both. Dire consequences Let us for a moment presume that the Courts would decree P-TOMS as unconstitutional and order its abrogation. What would be the political fall out of such a decree? If the Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL) obliges and abrogates P-TOMS, it would give the LTTE an opportunity to present a case before the international community that the Sri Lankan State is not ready even to grant minor relief to hapless victims of tsunami and hence they have no alternative other than separation in deference to the wishes of the Tamil community in the Northeast. That means, it would strengthen not weaken the intransigence of the LTTE. The likelihood of them receiving international assistance would also increase with dire consequences for Sri Lanka. So is the possibility of another Eelam war breaking out. Ultimately the question whether P-TOMS is constitutional or not would be decided not in the corridors of Hulftsdorp or the Mansion by the Diyawanna but by the people, the only authority that is sovereign under the Constitution. In the so-called learned discourse on P-TOMS another argument put forward is that P-TOMS is the same as ISGA or Eelam. Anybody with commonsense would, however, see that they differ very widely in extent, content, scope and powers. Only similarity is that they all grant some authority to the LTTE. The nature of authority in the case of P-TOMS is administrative and in extent it is confined to a coastal strip in six tsunami-affected districts in the Northeast whereas the ISGA or Eelam would encompass the entire Northeast. There is no devolution of power in the P-TOMS as against the ISGA or Eelam, which are self-governing bodies. UNP campaign As far as the main Opposition party, the UNP was concerned they have already forgotten P-TOMS except a lukewarm attempt to capitalise on its so-called defects while officially supporting it - a case of running with the hare and hunting with the hound. For it, the main issue is to grab the Executive Presidency. That is the objective of the Janabala Meheyuma or Operation Peoples' Power a la Philippines. Whether this is due to the haste in which Ranil Wicremasinghe wants to sit on the throne or whether this is to provoke the SLFP to select its Presidential nominee or whether this is to preempt the JVP from harnessing the opposition to the Government is not clear. It may also be a ploy to heal the fractures and fissures within the party or it may have all these as its objectives. Whatever that may be there does not seem to be a mass response except from the old and faithful party folk. Constitutionally it is the Commissioner of Elections that could decide on the date of the next Presidential poll. Hence the UNP campaign calling for an early election seems misdirected. It should be directed to the Election Chief as the President or the Cabinet cannot constitutionally decide on it. If there is an ambiguity as to the exact date of the poll, the matter could be sorted out in the Supreme Court, which would interpret the provisions of the Constitution. The UNP leader has been once again making solemn promises to deliver if he is elected. Ignoring the reality that he could not provide even a single job during two years in office he is promising jobs galore. To the tsunami victims he promises houses in three months. In reality most of them would get houses long before the next Presidential election. Perhaps Ranil has started too early. A case of getting into swim gear when the river is miles away. 'Shock and awe' Even government rankers have not realised the full impact of the JVP exit from the Government. Though the dissolution of Parliament is not imminent most of the parliamentarians, including those in the government side have felt a sense of insecurity. Many seem confused as if they have been treated to a US type 'shock and awe' military blitzkrieg. They seem to be more interested in ensuring their personal return to Parliament or obtaining or retaining portfolios in a future winning political combination. Since political alliances for a future election are yet to be born most MPs and even some Ministers have thought it more prudent to keep mum on vital political issues, and on P-TOMS in particular. Not only politicians even intellectuals who used to issue press statements by the day during an election seem to in a no-talk mode. Opposition politicians are capitalising on this situation and are throwing challenges at government politicians. For example both the JVP and the UNP challenged the Premier to declare his 'sincere' thoughts on P-TOMS. The Premier obliged by tabling the signed P-TOMS document in Parliament to the dismay of both challengers. One of the major drawbacks that the peace process faced after the .assumption of the UPFA Government was the lack of a coherent strategy to handle it. This was largely due to the position of the JVP which considered any dealing with the LTTE as anathema. As the President has said since the signing of the P-TOMS and the exit of the JVP chances of wooing the Tamil community have increased. Yet, there seems to be still some element of confusion and lack of clarity on the way forward even among members of the Cabinet. The media has recently highlighted certain utterances of the Foreign Minister and have tried to show that there are differences in the Government even after the JVP left. The Foreign Minister had openly criticised the Norwegian facilitators and has called for their replacement. One could recall how he called for Indian mediation at a Seminar in New Delhi a few months ago, embarrassing both the President and the Indian Government. It would have been more diplomatic and prudent had he expressed his personal opinion through other channels. As the Foreign Minister once told an audience in Colombo the art of diplomacy is more on keeping silent than articulating your thoughts openly. Coming back to the theme of alliances politicians are speculating on many fronts. The JVP has openly declared their intention of forming an alliance under their leadership. So far there have been no takers except for some small Muslim groups who also remain non-committed still. The strategy of the JVP seems to be to split the SLFP and if possible the UNP on communal grounds and form a grand alliance to save the country a la the Patriotic National Front so that next time it need not be the Remote Control but could become the helmsman himself. In the Western Provincial Council a new alliance has been formed between the UNP and the SLFP. As expected there are dissidents on both sides. A Deputy Minister welcomed the new alliance and hoped that it bodes well for the country when the two main parties come together on major national issues. Whether the recall of the WP Chief Minister is a national issue or not, we leave it to our readers to decide. Anyway, there is scope for plenty of permutations and combinations in the electoral politics of Sri Lanka. They would baffle even the most erudite mathematician or defy all theories of probability. |
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