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Press predicts defeat of Koizumi's key reform

TOKYO, Aug 6 (AFP) - Japanese newspapers Saturday predicted the defeat of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's signature reforms of breaking up the post office as he faced calls not to announce an early election if he loses.

The legislation to privatize the powerful post office, which many Japanese use as a bank, is set for a vote Monday in the 242-member upper house after squeezing through the lower house by only five votes last month.

As the government has a slimmer margin in the upper house, the bills will be voted down if at least 18 lawmakers from Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) join opposition lawmakers to cast dissenting votes. The liberal daily Asahi Shimbun said more than 20 LDP lawmakers would likely vote against the postal bills. The Mainichi Shimbun quoting an LDP official as saying: "The bills may be voted down by a wide margin."

Koizumi, who has made the reforms the cornerstone of his domestic agenda, has repeatedly said a rejection would be a vote of no confidence in him.

Asked if he would dissolve the lower house for a new election, Koizumi said, "I can't say it now, but I have already made up my mind." "I understand that some say I should not create a political vacuum or should find ways to avoid the dissolution, but I will judge the situation comprehensively," Koizumi told reporters in Hiroshima after a ceremony marking the 60th anniversary of the world's first atomic attack.

Japan's top-selling daily Yomiuri Shimbun said in an editorial Saturday that Koizumi should refrain from calling new polls.

"Depending on the results of the general election, political confusion could last until a new administration is formed, extending the political vacuum even further," the conservative daily said. Both the Yomiuri and Japan's leading business daily Nihon Keizai Shimbun said in editorials Saturday that privatizing the postal services was crucial in overhauling Japan's economy and society.

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