Whistling in the dark

The distribution of Tamil allegiance

by Kumar David

The LTTE’s claim to be the sole representative of the Tamils is dismissed by everybody, except the TNA, as plain untruth or sheer hubris. However, since no free and fair poll has been conducted in the Northern, and to a degree the Eastern Provinces, for more than a decade, the distribution of support among the Tamil people for different political entities remains a matter of conjecture, or at best an educated guess. But it is an assessment that must be made, even if in rough ballpark terms, because it has a bearing on future consultations for a new constitutional dispensation. Thus it is not idle speculation but a useful discourse to initiate an exchange on how Tamil sentiments are currently spread. This article attempts a first approximation and in part is based on subjective impressions; knowledgeable readers can improve it.

For convenience the word Tamil is used throughout this article to refer to the non-Upcountry Tamils who originated in the North and East but now include a large population living in Colombo and elsewhere. In any case the allegiance of the Upcountry Tamils is clearly known from the results of several national and local elections. The loyalties of the very large Tamil Diaspora, numbering between half a million and a million people, is also not taken into consideration in what follows.

The LTTE-TNA alliance Mouthpiece

Many commentators contend that the recent parliamentary elections in the North and East were farcical, several are scornful of the TNA as a mouthpiece and acolyte of the LTTE, notwithstanding, there is little doubt that it would have garnered the majority Tamil vote even in the fairest of elections. The TNA has its roots in the TULF and the Federal Party which commanded overwhelming majorities in Tamil electorates since 1956; its current MPs constitute almost the entirety of the continuity of that heritage. It is my view, from association with much Tamil opinion, that the TNA is the party of the large majority of non-militant Tamils; but mind you that doesn’t imply uncritical endorsement.

The case of the LTTE is more complex. Certainly it commands the allegiance of many youthful and militant Tamils and the active support of those who suffered in the racial pogroms and their relatives. More importantly there is an unmistakable realisation even among non-LTTE Tamils that, but for the fight that it has put up, the Sinhala state and community would not have an iota of interest in devolution, federalism, autonomy and the like. No power, no talk! The balance of terror is also seen as a deterrent that holds back another 1983. Hence, the great majority of Tamils accept the LTTE as a necessity at least until the national question finds some meaningful solution.

The JVP-JHU ideology probably carries some 10 to 15% of the national electorate, that is some 15 to 20% of the Sinhala electorate taken separately. In parallel, could one conjecture that the LTTE, taken alone, could count on some 25% of the Tamils as its exclusive supporters? Maybe, but so long as the LTTE-TNA alliance sticks together, it is safe to say that this combined entity commands the support of well over half, perhaps two-thirds, of the Tamil people of the country. For now this is the substantive statistic.

The UNP

Interestingly enough the second largest Tamil party in Sri Lanka is none of the other Tamil organisations, but the United National Party. This too is a phenomenon that goes back a long way, all the way to the time of independence. The Tamil bourgeoisie and the educated elite in the cities found their natural habitat in the UNP, but though they were not numerous they were the makers of opinion, the leaders. For example in bygone years in Colombo South, as many middle and lower middle class Tamils voted for JR as for Bernard. Truth is sometimes stranger than fiction given that the former is the most rabidly racist leader in the history of this troubled island.

The UNP used to collect a significant number of votes, not all Sinhalese and Muslim, in the Eastern Province. Some residue of this was apparent in the recent presidential election.

It is also the street-smart view that had the LTTE not imposed a boycott Tamils in the North and indeed elsewhere would have voted in large numbers for Ranil. Preference for the UNP over the SLFP does not of course mean preference for the former over a Tamil party, but even after allowing for this there is a residual Tamil vote spread out nationally which is clearly UNP; certainly more pro-UNP than pro-EPDP or pro-Anandasangaree. Hence in summary, it is safe to say that in electoral terms the UNP is the second largest Tamil party.

EPDP and Sangaree

Of course the two can’t be lumped together from considerations of size, but only from the consideration that they are the only two pro-government Tamil parties (the Upcountry Tamils do not feature in this article). Douglas and the EPDP have done good work in the Jaffna Peninsula during the period when this was possible hence the EPDP has a credible support base and has to be counted as a significant small party. Sangaree, though respected by some for his opposition to the LTTE’s trademark of totalitarianism and assassination has no mass base; at most he may win one seat in a constituency based electoral system. Overall then, taken together, the pro-government Tamil organisations, at best, count for less than a tenth of the Tamils. This is a key adversarial consideration in any constitutional negotiation the PA/UPFA undertakes with the Tamil people.

The EPDP and Sangaree cannot gain ground in the Tamil community because they need to lean on the administration for political survival and/or for security. They take a stand against LTTE human rights violations but remain silent on extra judicial assassinations and abductions that may be associated with the state. Hence the EPDP and Sangaree will not be able to contest the LTTE-TNA alliance for the leadership of the Tamil community.

The Mano Ganesan phenomenon

The Western People’s Front did well at the Colombo Municipal elections; it is an alliance of both Upcountry and Colombo Tamils and has won some respect among the Sinhalese in the city because it is home grown, indigenous. However, Ganesan and his group have support in the core upcountry areas as well.
It is a relatively new but potentially dynamic development that is worth watching and can be an important ally of the left movement whose base among the Tamils has disappeared.

The future of this organisation, that is its development from a personality-based entity to a political entity with a long-term future, will depend on two things, its programmatic evolution which is as yet unclear and the principled nature of the alliances that it chooses to form.