The probability of a white Christmas

For four decades, it has retained (maintained) a simplicity cherished by those who appreciate the traditional values of Christmas.

But the tried and tested means by which Britain's Met Office decides whether it is a white Christmas has become the latest victim of the ceaseless (unstoppable) march of progress.

Instead of a trained scientist watching for a flake of snow falling on to the roof of one of the organisations's eight offices, the process will now involve the use of radar, webcams and amateur enthusiasts (those who do something as a hobby and not as a profession) in internet chat rooms.

News of the change, revealed in a Met Office memo written by Wayne Elliot, the organisation's chief press officer, has angered staff and will dismay some of the gamblers who enjoy a flutter on the result. Elliot's memo says: "I realise some of you may disagree with this, but given our access to the technology, a number of private weather sites on the web and the fact that we could run a campaign on our website when we expect snow, I agreed that the operations centre will act as a verification (establish the correctness) point for snow on Christmas Day."

He insists that the new system will be "95 per cent accurate" and says he is simply "trying to bring the Met Office into the real world".

However, one senior meteorologist condemned (disapproved) the decision, arguing that it was "purely about

 saving money".

He warned that when the temperature is close to zero, it is extremely difficult for a sensor to differentiate between drizzle, sleet or flakes of snow.

He also suggested that those who place bets on the outcome might send in false reports of snowfall in order to ensure personal profit.

"To suggest that 21st-century technology can do the job of the trained human eye is so much eyewash," he said.

The most recent white Christmas was in 2004. Snow fell last year, but only on the roof of the Met Office in Aberdeen, thus failing to qualify as a white Christmas anywhere else.

The Sunday Telegraph