Shifting fortunes

Vote-share arithmetic often prevails over political chemistry in the building of alliances in Tamil Nadu. The Pattali Makkal Katchi, in deciding to ally with the front led by the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam rather than with the grouping headed by the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, factored in the winning capability of the alliance more than anything else. As a party enjoying support among sections of the Vanniyar community, a Most Backward Class in Tamil Nadu, the PMK was confident of taking along its vote share to either of the fronts. Beginning with the 1998 Lok Sabha election, the PMK has managed to be on the winning side in every general election, whether to the Lok Sabha or to the State Assembly.

PMK founder S. Ramadoss was keen to ensure that there was no blemish on this track record. Thus, although relations between the PMK and the DMK had been strained for the last couple of years, their leaders were in negotiations over sharing of seats until the very end. Indeed, PMK leaders were talking to both the DMK and the AIADMK at the same time.

While the number of seats on offer and the identification of constituencies did figure in the calculations of Dr. Ramadoss, what tilted the scales was the growing realisation that his party together with the Left parties, the AIADMK, and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) could make a formidable combination.

Ideological affinity did not turn out to be a decisive factor in alliance-formation, though the Sri Lankan Tamils issue was a major concern for the PMK. Even before the party took the decision, both the fronts already had within themselves constituents with very different positions on the issue.

The Tamil chauvinist Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, which took a stridently pro-Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) stance, was part of the DMK-led alliance that had the Congress as a major constituent.

Similarly, while the AIADMK took a tough line against the LTTE, one of its allies, the MDMK, toed a pro-LTTE line.

With the PMK finally making its decision known, both fronts now appear to have taken a final shape. The only significant party still out of the two alliances is the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) led by actor Vijayakant, which secured 8.38 per cent of the votes in the 2006 Assembly election. Unlike caste-based parties, the DMDK might not be able to transfer its entire vote-share to an ally, and therefore its value as an alliance partner remains unproven. As of now, the DMDK is planning to go it alone, but no matter what the party decides Tamil Nadu seems set to witness what is basically a battle between two major fronts.

(Courtesy: the Hindu)