CPA's 'Key Points' summary reveals:

What Sri Lanka really thinks

By Dayan JAYATILEKA

"Seek truth from facts" (Deng Xiaoping) - There is an extensive survey of public opinion, the results of which will up-end all conventional assumptions about what the Sri Lankan people think and therefore how they are likely to act or react.

This is the Survey on Democracy in Post-War Sri Lanka, Topline Report July 2011, conducted and published by the Social Indicators unit of the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA), in association with the Friedrich Neumann Stiftung of Germany. Headed by Dr. Paikiyasothy Saravanamuttu, a well-known civil society critic of the administration, the CPA is and has been a trenchant critic of government policy.

Therefore, its findings cannot be tainted by association with government. Those findings will, to put it colloquially, blow your socks off.

Significantly, the statistics show a remarkable degree of congruence between Sinhalese and Tamils on key issues, and a surprisingly positive opinion being held by a fairly large percentage of Tamils on the most contentious and polarising issues.

"On the subject of the general security situation in the country, majority of Sri Lankans think that it has got better in the past two years. 68.2% said it has got a lot better while 23.1% said it has got a little better. When comparing the opinions of respondents across the four communities, it is mostly the Sinhala community (77.5%) and Up country Tamil community (57.8%) who said that the security situation has got a lot better."

The solid commitment of the Sri Lankan citizenry to democracy as a system, and rejection of any suggestion of military rule as a form of government, comes through unambiguously in the Survey data. Furthermore, the commitment to democracy is one major issue on which there is NO significant ethnic differentiation, let alone polarisation.

"A majority from all four communities (Sinhala - 68.2%, Tamil - 70.3%, Up country Tamil - 70.8%, Muslim - 87.8%) stated that democracy is preferable to any other kind of government. 52.7% of Sinhala respondents, 76.3% of Tamil respondents, 71.1% of Up country Tamil respondents and 70.1% of Muslim respondents strongly disagreed with the suggestion of having the army rule a country." Interestingly it is the Sinhalese who disagreed most with the notion of a strong, yet undemocratic leader, even if the situation necessitated it.

Parliament and elections

"Having a strong leader who does not have to bother with Parliament and elections - Respondents from all four communities mostly disagreed with this statement with 50.7% of the Sinhala community, 44.2% of the Tamil community, 41.7% of Up country Tamil community and 40.3% of the Muslim community strongly disagreeing... Having a democratically elected political leader - Around 80% of those from Sinhala and Tamil communities and around 85% from the Up country Tamil and Muslim communities agreed with this type of leader governing a country. 72.7% of urban respondents and 70.5% of rural respondents said that they strongly agreed with having a democratically elected political leader." (pp 21-22) The advanced character of the civic consciousness of the Sri Lankan people is demonstrated by their preference for a non-military, non-theocratic, civilian, elected democratic leadership, with a more meritocratic, expert driven decision making /policy process.

"Having experts, not government, make decisions according to what they think is best for the country - Agreement was high for this form of governance, with more than 62% of respondents from all four communities agreeing with this statement." (pp 21-22) The people, irrespective of ethnic identities, feel that Sri Lanka is more, not less democratic in the post war period. "Most respondents from all four communities believe that Sri Lanka is now more democratic, with 31.2% of Sinhala, 20.8% of Tamil, 32.8% of Up country Tamil and 33.8% of Muslim respondents stating that Sri Lanka is much more democratic."

Furthermore, the people of all ethnic communities believe that their vote counts, irrespective of all propaganda about vote rigging and stolen elections.

The Survey says that "It is noteworthy that most respondents from all four communities believe that their vote has an impact on the outcome of an election." Notwithstanding a noteworthy degree of alienation among the Tamil citizens of the Hill Country - most respondents in the Up Country Tamil community (41.2%) believe that they have no say in what the government does most in the Sinhala, Tamil and Muslim communities disagreed and believe that they do have a say in what the government does".

Free to express

What about the freedom of expression? "When asked if in Sri Lanka they are free to express their feelings about politics, irrespective of where they are and who they are with, most of those from the Sinhala community (50%) and Up country Tamil community (38.8%) believe that they are completely free to do so, while a much smaller percentage of the Tamil and Muslim communities believe the same.

"What do the majority of our citizens say about democracy during the administration of President Mahinda Rajapaksa? 58.8% of Sri Lankans think that the country has been the most democratic under President Mahinda Rajapaksa's period. This view is shared by 69.9% of Sinhalese respondents. On the other hand, only 23.6% of Tamil respondents, 13.1% of Up country Tamil respondents and 21.9% of Muslim respondents concur." Which political party do most Sri Lankans feel closest to? What is the picture in the South and North respectively? The results are striking, stark and massive. "Respondents were asked about which political party (specific party, not alliance) they felt that they are close to. 74% of Sinhalese respondents said the Sri Lanka Freedom Party while 19.8% said the United National Party. 53.9% of Tamil respondents said they felt close to the Illankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi party while 22.4% said the United National Party." Meanwhile the TNA is not as hegemonic among the Tamils as the SLFP is among the Sinhalese, but it has emerged clearly ahead, and is far more popular among the Tamils than the UNP is among the Sinhalese.

On the problem of a political solution and reconciliation, social opinion does seem divided. "On the topic of a political solution for Sri Lanka's ethnic problem, 29.7% of Sinhala, 59.1% of Tamil, 30.8% of Up country Tamil and 53.5% of Muslim communities agreed that the Constitution should be changed based on recommendations made by an all party committee to produce a political solution to the country's ethnic problem.

However, 17.6% Sinhala, 4% Tamil, 11.1% Up country Tamil and 14.2% Muslim communities said that there is no need for a political solution as the LTTE was completely defeated militarily. Most respondents from the Tamil (40.9%), Up country Tamil (32.5%) and Muslim (42.9%) communities agree that power needs to be devolved to the Provincial Councils while reducing the power of the central government. Only 15.3% of the Sinhala community concur. 50On the topic of reconciliation, 32.3% of people from the Tamil community are of the opinion that the government has done nothing with regard to addressing the root causes of the conflict which resulted in thirty years of war. On the other hand, 41.1% of people from the Sinhala community believe that the government has done a lot."

Though this is an extract from the CPA's 'Key Points' summary, the body of the main text provides the real 'key' to the solution: "...On the other hand, 31.3% of Sinhala and around 20% of Tamil, Up country Tamil and Muslim communities stated that it is alright to decentralise certain powers but powers of the central government should not be reduced. Once again, 37% of Sinhala and around 20% of Tamil, Up country Tamil and Muslim respondents said that they have no opinion regarding this." (pp.23-24) Paradoxically, the CPA statistics make it easier to formulate a political settlement, because the parameters of the possible are brought into sharp relief.

Cold, hard facts

The cold, hard facts revealed by the CPA Survey prescribe the avoidance of Constitutional change drastic enough to reduce, or be credibly perceived (before the Supreme Court, in the first instance) as reducing the powers of the centre and therefore necessitating a referendum.

Logic and reality combine to dictate that any political settlement must be limited to that which averts a Sinhala veto at a referendum, i.e. it must remain within the overall framework of the Constitution and must be limited to the actual implementation of its existing provisions for devolution of power to the provinces with perhaps a degree of stretching' by way of re-adjustment in the list of powers shared concurrently between centre and provinces In another surprising development, there is a broad consensus cross cutting ethnic fault lines, and belying the critique by oppositional economists, that the Rajapaksa administration is doing a good job on the macro economy.

This of course narrows the political space for the UNP, whose strong suit has been economic growth and development.

The Survey states that "Looking at the assessment of the economy, most of the respondents from all four communities believe that the government is doing a good job. 50.4% of Sinhala, 49.2% of Tamil, 54.4% of Up country Tamil and 60.6% of Muslim communities agree that the government is doing a good job in managing public services. 71.7% of Sinhala, 74.4% of Tamil, 55.9% of Up country Tamil and 64% of Tamil respondents who said that the Government is doing a good job in managing public services also stated that this favourable opinion increased since the end of war. 5.5% of Sinhala, 2.3% of Tamil, 20.3% of Up country Tamil and 7.9% of Muslim respondents said that it has decreased." This does not however, mean that the people, including the Sinhala people have no clearly identifiable problems, criticism and grievances. The big issues are those of Human Development or Physical Quality of Life including unemployment, inflation and poverty.

The big three are the Cost of living, corruption and unemployment. "65% of Sri Lankans, mostly from the Sinhala community, do not think that corruption can be ignored. According to a majority of the respondents, the most important area the Government needs to pay attention to is the cost of living. When it comes to the second most important area, respondents in the Tamil and Up country Tamil communities said it should be reducing poverty while the Sinhala community said agriculture and the Muslim community said unemployment.

When asked about the main results that people would like to see from the current development process, once again cost of living ranks as the top priority for respondents in all four communities. For the Sinhala community, improved infrastructure is the second result they would like to see while for the other three communities it is addressing unemployment and the creation of more jobs." Public opinion is enlightened, across the ethnic communities on the need to prioritise the development of the former conflict areas. "Most respondents from all four communities believe that priority should be given to rebuilding conflict affected areas, with the Tamil (73.6%) and Up country Tamil (65.2%) being the highest among the four communities who think so when compared to the 49.6% of Sinhala respondents and 46.1% of Muslim respondents who believe the same."

The Sri Lankan citizenry displays the same pragmatic enlightenment on two important civic issues, namely women's representation and the role of the news media. "72.6% said that the news media should constantly investigate and report on corruption and the mistakes made by the government while only 5.6% said that too much reporting on negative events, like corruption, only harms the country. Support for the idea of allocating a fixed quota for women candidates per district at the elections was high among respondents from all four communities." Lenin once said that "serious politics begins where tens of millions of people are".

It is therefore very difficult to take seriously, those who try to do serious politics or urge serious political change with no awareness of or respect for the opinions of tens of millions of Sri Lankan people. Perhaps things are simpler still. The best known injunction of the man who launched China's economic miracle, Chairman Deng Xiaoping, was 'seek truth from facts'.