Is Rafael Nadal's clay reign over?

There is something about Roland Garros, the home of the French Open, that turns the genteel rituals of lawn tennis into a blood sport.

The red clay and the whooping, jeering fans create a gladiatorial atmosphere, until the event becomes a test of heart and soul as much as technique and athleticism.Over the last decade, only one man has been able to give it the full Maximus in Paris, to clench his fist and salute the patrons of Court Philippe Chatrier in the knowledge that he owns the place.

That man is Rafael Nadal, the warrior prince of tennis, and arguably the greatest natural competitor ever to pull on a bandanna.But no dynasty lasts for ever, and with a month to go until the Babolat balls come out of their canisters, Nadal's grip on the French Open appears to be loosening. After his 4-6, 6-7 defeat by Fabio Fognini on Thursday night, the bookmakers are quoting him at 2-1 to lift the Coupe des Mousquetaires for the 10th time - his longest odds since he was a teenager.

Ridiculously, the tournament is unlikely to change its policy of matching seedings with world rankings. So, the most successful player in its history - a man with a mind-boggling win-loss record of 66-1 at Roland Garros - will probably go in as either the No.4 or No.5 seed, depending on results over the next couple of tournaments. Advertisement Should the draw go against him, Nadal could find himself playing Novak Djokovic, the favourite and world No.1, as early as the quarter-finals.His admirers continue to scoff at the doubters.

They shrug off their hero's gloomy comments after the Fognini match - "I am deeply ashamed and frustrated, such a performance cannot happen again" - with the riposte that he has spent his career talking himself down. They remind us that Nadal went into last year's French Open on the back of some chastening results, only to don his trusty sword and shield and vanquish every rival.

Yet all the evidence suggests that Nadal is carrying more mental baggage this year. A week ago, he switched to a new racket, saying "in theory [it gives me] less control but more power and more spin".

This was a big decision to make in midseason, especially before the clay-court stretch that provides most of Nadal's ranking points and prize money. Might we even detect a hint of desperation from a man who has defeated only one top-10 opponent - David Ferrer in Monte Carlo last week - since last year's French Open final?If the champion's laurels are slipping, the challenger grows stronger by the day.That man is Djokovic, who has won every tournament that matters for the past six months.

The only arena he has yet to conquer is Roland Garros. The frustration eats away at him; as he moved through the rounds in Paris last year, he suffered vomiting fits that left him short of his usual flawless conditioning.

For the third year in succession, he came up against Nadal - and for the third year he was bested.Not that last year's final was a completely miserable experience for the world No.1. When the Roland Garros fans - notoriously the toughest crowd in tennis - rose together to salute the runner-up at the presentation ceremony, it felt as though they were anointing him as the rightful successor."

I experienced one of the most touching moments in my career," said Djokovic last month. "I had tears in my eyes because the French public is not easy to conquer."

Whatever those crazy seedings might say, this year's French Open is surely a two-horse race, for clay-court tennis, with its grinding rallies and slow bounces, rewards steel and stamina over flashy racket-work.

It is also a race that Djokovic believes he can finally win.Roland Garros often feels like an independent state within the kingdom of tennis, with its own rules and royalty.

So, until he has annexed this bloodthirsty corner of Paris, his reign over the world's most global sport will remain incomplete.The Telegraph, London