Crucial poll in Lanka's history:

Acid test for UNP and SLFP

by Manjula Fernando

The UNP and the SLFP will test their strengths tomorrow, in one of Sri Lanka's most crucial polls in recent history. The two major political parties, emerging as equal contenders will vie for a majority in the new Parlaiment to form the next Government.

Independent observers say the outcome would be a hung Parliament, with none of the two major parties being able to secure a majority.

The new Parliament will meet on September 1. A mammoth 6151 candidates with 3,653 under 35 registered political parties and 2,498 under 201 independent groups have entered the fray to secure 196 of the 225 seats in Parliament, excluding the National List seats.

However, this is a sharp drop from the April 2010 polls, where 7,537 candidates contested the post-war election, under 24 political parties and 310 independent groups.

Colombo and Kurunegala Districts, where Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa are running for Parliament, has become the centre of all activities. Highlighting the focus the UPFA has placed in Kurunegala, the Alliance ended its campaign with a final political rally there. It is predicted that UNP will regain its lost bastian with a strong team in Colombo leb by the Prime Minister Wickremesinghe.

As far as Kurunegala is concerned, a couple of traditional UPFA Parliamentarians could lose their seats to make way for Mahinda Rajapaksa. The former President is expected to emerge first in the Kurunegala list.

Colombo, a former stronghold of the UNP, the UPFA secured 10 seats and UNP seven seats at the last General Election.

The DNA led by Sarath Fonseka emerged the third force winning the remaining two seats. In the Kurunegala District too, the UPFA bagged 10 seats with the UNP winning five.

Although the former President had declined a straight answer for his decision to contest from the Kurunegala District, the fact that it has the third highest number of registered voters and the third highest seat allocation after Colombo and Gampaha, could have been a major factor for the former strongman.

Colombo, a UNP traditional bastian and Gampaha former President Chandrika Kumaratunga's family stronghold could not have been a comfortable choice.

Namal Rajapaksa's safe return to Parliament from Hambantota may also have been a concern, given the fact that senior MPs and family members, Chamal Rajapaksa and Nirupama Rajapaksa are also contesting from the Hambantota District.

At the last General Election, Elections Commissoner Mahinda Deshapriya was compelled to hold a re-poll in the Nawalapitiya and Tincomalee electorates which reported irregularities. The election was held on April 8 and the re-poll on April 20. It was one of the lowest attended elections in Sri Lanka's history with only a 61% percent voter turnout.

The eroded public interest was attributed to having two elections at short intervals, a Presidential election in February 2010 recording over 74% voter turnout.

Civil society groups backed by election observers are striving to whip up voter interest on August 17. PAFFREL Chairman Rohana Hettiarachchi, at a media briefing on Wednesday, said those who boycott the election will be helping the worst party or the candidate to enter Parliament and manipulate crucial decisions that concern the people's future.

They called upon voters to turn up in numbers and choose the best men in the fray. According to the Elections Department 15,044,490 electors are eligible to cast their vote at the upcoming polls including 316 first-time voters from the Jaffna, Vanni and Batticaloa Districts who were included in the supplementary list.

This is an increase of 822, 200 voters compared to the last General Election.

The Returning Officers accepted nominations from registered political parties and independent groups from July 6 to 13. The Department rejected 12 nomination papers from parties and 24 from independent groups due to discrepancies.

A special day of postal voting was held on August 3 for teachers and officials on duty at the GCE Advanced Level examination. For others, the postal vote was held on August 5, 6, 8 and 11. Of the 627, 259 applications received for postal voting, nearly 60,000 applications were rejected by the Elections Department for failing to fulfill the criteria. Despite 35 political parties fielding candidates in the upcoming polls, only four will be contesting in all 22 electoral districts. The JVP and their rivals Peratugami Samajawadi Peramuna in addition to the SLFP led United People's Freedom Alliance and the UNP led United National Front are contesting all districts.

The TNA (ITAK) which has the electoral dominance in the North is contesting only the Jaffna, Vanni, Batticaloa, Ampara and Trincomalee districts while the SLMC is going solo in Vanni and Batticaloa, they are contesting several other districts with the UNF. The TNA had not filed nominations for Colombo possibly to avoid a clash with the Mano Ganeshan led coalition. The party formed by the ex-LTTE cadres, Crusaders For Democracy, is contesting only in Jaffna as a separate political force.

The TNA emerged the third force in Parliament at the last election but the JVP which suffered a humiliating defeat retaining only three seats in 2010, is set to make a comeback this year.

The former upcountry heavyweight CWC will contest under the UPFA banner. They have been sidelined by the tripartite front of Mano Ganeshan, P.Thigambaram and V.Radhakrishnan who are contesting on the UNF ticket.

What is unique about this election, is the entry of 80 bhikkhus in the fray.

A majority of the candidates are from the Bodu Jana Peramuna (BJP) led by Ven.Galagodaaththe Gnanasara, the leader of Bodu Bala Sena.