Issues of concern addressed and ignored
 

NCP voters between devil and the deep blue sea

by Ranil Wijayapala

The North Central Province, the largest province in land extent, which constituted two ancient kingdoms, is bracing for Mondays polls with renewed vigor as it has once again become a king- making province after the January 8 election.

The victory of Maitripala Sirisena, renewed the hopes of the people of Rajarata as they were able send a true son of a middle class farmer-family to the highest echelon of governance of the country. Whether this same enthusiasm of the people of Rajarata will be there to sustain the changes brought about on January 8 is a major concern for the rest of the country .

Therefore, securing the Rajarata vote base has become huge challenge to the two main rivals, the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) and the SLFP led alliance and the United National Front (UNF) for Good Governance the UNP led alliance, which are at the fray at this election.

However, the current politics in the main two parties have confused the voters in the province to a certain extent putting them in a doubtful situation as to which side they should switch in order to make their province a prosperous one in the coming years.

The most challenging task for the people of the Polonnaruwa District is how they could take forward the January 8 victory amidst all the political storms to obtain the support of President Sirisena for a predominantly an agricultural district.

Under these circumstances the 637,733 votes in the Anuradhapura District and the 307,125 votes in the Polonnaruwa District, though not large in numbers will be crucial to elect representatives to the legislature.Despite distancing himself from the main electoral platform on policy, the influence of President Maitripala Sirisisena will be a crucial factor for the UPFA to secure victory in the Polonnaruwa and Anuradhapura Districts. According to UPFA General Secretary, A.D. Susil Premajayantha, the North Central Province will be an easy victory for the UPFA despite Mahinda Rajapaksa's defeat in the Polonnaruwa District at the January Presidential polls. However, it will not be a cake-walk for the UPFA, if they do not take the ground realities into consideration.

For President Maitripala Sirisena to reunite with the SLFP, the UNF securing a clear victory in the Polonnaruwa District will be a decisive factor, though it was with its support President Sirisena secured 147,974 (57.80%) at the Presidential Election against Mahinda Rajapaksa who secured 105,640 (41.27)votes.

Though the UNF can be satisfied with the outcome of the Presidential Election, it will have to work hard to secure victory against the UPFA in the Polonnaruwa District considering it had its worst defeat in the district to the SLFP led coalition at the 2010 General Election, securing only one seat of the five allocated to the district.

However, the entry of Wasantha Senanayake into the fray from the UNP shedding his differences with the party and contesting as its district leader will give renewed strength to the UNP supporters to launch a strong campaign against the UPFA. Despite this situation, people's realization that President Maitripala Sirisena will be there with them whatever the government in power will once again dilute the stiff competition the two parties would have in the Anuradhapura district.

Although the two districts in the North Central Province share similarities the behaviuors of voters of Anuradhapura District has always been different from Polonnaruwa.

At the January 8 polls while Mahinda Rajapaksa secured more votes from the Annuradhapura District, President Sirisena polled more from Polonnaruwa . .

There is an aura of enthusiasm among the UNP supporters in the Anuradhapura District as they gained momentum in their campaigns with the Ministerial portfolios the UNP Members of the constituency got after so many years. "That will give a boost to the vote base but it will not bar the UPFA from securing a clear victory in the Anuradhapura district", people observed.

The UNPs minority government has not been able to influence the vote base in Anuradhapura as they are more aligned towards the UPFA rather than the UNP despite the differences the party stalwarts are having in the district at present. Minister Duminda Dissanayaka's aligning with the President will not bear any impact on the UPFA vote base as expected but would have a positive impact on the UPFA preferential votes.

The opinion of the public is that the ongoing campaigns by the two main parties in the Anuradhapura District will not be able to make major shift from the Presidential Election results in which UNP backed Maithripala Sirisena secured 238,407 (45.44%) against 281,161 ( 53.59%) votes obtained by the UPFA candidate Mahinda Rajapaksa.

However, according to analysts the Anuradhapura east and Anuradhapura west electorates are more aligned towards the UNF to pose threat to the UPFA securing a land slide victory in the district. Under such circumstances the victory of the UPFA in Kalavewa with bigger margin would ensure its victory at district level. Appointing Duminda Dissanayake as the Kalawewa SLFP organizer along with former Minister S.M. Chandrasena is considered as key towards securing victory for the UPFA.

However, the strong entry of the JVP with its Anuradhapura District leader, Wasantha Samarasinghe, into the fray has created ripples in the election campaign of the two main parties. According to people's opinion the JVP is having the strongest grass root level campaign in the district with members launching a house to house campaign to educate voters. Though there is no guarantee that all the people who are praising the JVP would vote for them at the election there is a strong belief the JVP securing one seat out of the nine in the district. But there is a possibility of the party getting two seats due to the dilemma of the voters..

Therefore, the voting pattern of the Anuradhapura District will be similar to that of the 2001 General election result, in which the JVP secured one seat from the Anuradhapura District after securing 40,005(11.13%) votes.

Apart from the electoral campaigning of the political parties there are issues in the province to be considered by the voters when deciding to vote. Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) will be a decisive factor in the elections. Around 400,000 people have fallen victim to kidney disease.

The commitment shown by President Maitripala Sirisena and the efforts taken by the Social Services Ministry to provide relief for the affected families will strike a balance when splitting the vote between the two main parties as Social Services Minister P. Harrison hails from the Anuradhapura District.

A certified price for paddy, though considered a priority will not be at the fore at the election , according to the people in the province, as it is unrealistic to offer higher prices for paddy by the political parties. Therefore, paddy prices will not be a decisive factor for the North Central Province voters in the general elections.

Since there were no major security implications in the province during the past few years, the issue of national security has also not made any apparent influence on the voters, though it was an issue highly considered by the people living in Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa Districts in the past. Though some political parties are raising concerns about the national security people tend to ignore the issue at the present election.

As a province with 53.6 percent employed in the agriculture sector there will be less focus on the unemployment issue . The 4.3 % percent unemployment rate in the Polonnaruwa district compared to the 3% unemployment in the Anuradhapura district will have an overall impact on the voters decision.

Education, health infrastructure and the irrigation issues will have an impact on the voters decision.