The 'give and take' in Sharif-Obama talks

By Stanley Mathews

Talks between Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the US President Barack Obama held in Washington on October 22 have stabilized relations between Pakistan and the United States. The joint communiqué issued after the talks indicates a 'give and take approach' which should take the relations towards stability and sustainability.

Nawaz Sharif and Barack Obama talk in Washington (The Hindu)

Relations between the US and Pakistan - America's oldest ally in South Asia -were under strain as a result of US drone attacks on Islamic militants and civilians in the tribal areas of Western Pakistan bordering Afghanistan, and America's perceived tilt towards India in a wide range of spheres including the strategic, nuclear and economic fields.

Sharif failed to get for Pakistan a Civil Nuclear Cooperation Deal of the kind the US entered into with India in 2005, and that remains a sore point. The US has been wary about any such deal with Pakistan because it is extremely concerned about Pakistan's vigorous nuclear weapons program and possible proliferation of nuclear bomb technology.

According to analysts Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, Pakistan's nuclear bomb stockpile could go up from 110 (in 2011) to 250 warheads by 2021 which would make it the fifth largest nuclear weapons state after the US, Russia, China and France.

The US is also scared that Pakistan might give nuclear weapons technology to Islamic countries or militants going by the proliferation which took place earlier because of Pakistani nuclear scientist A. Q. Khan. The latest area of concern is talk in Pakistan about developing tactical battlefield nuclear weapons to blunt a massive Indian conventional military attack. Such tactical weapons could easily go into the hands of Islamic terrorists, the US fears.

No nuke

But while denying a nuclear deal, the US has pledged to help Pakistan beef up its energy production program and has stressed the need for Pakistan to enter into regional deals for energy resource exploitation and energy distribution.

An US-Pakistan Clean Energy Partnership, based on the initial work of the April 2015 Energy Working Group under the US-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue, has been announced. At its core, the Partnership aims to facilitate US private sector investment in Pakistan's energy sector, including generation, transmission, and distribution. Through the partnership, US and Pakistan will cooperate to: attract local and international investment; develop an investment plan for expanding the role of clean energy systems; expand transmission capacity through selected infrastructure projects; and mobilize development financing to help attract private sector investments in hydropower, wind, solar and natural gas projects.

The joint communiqué indicates that the US is moving away from the deep-seated notion that Pakistan is an unreliable state in so far as cooperation to fight terrorism is concerned. In Washington, Islamabad has been perceived to be in cahoots with the Islamic terror groups it is supposed to be fighting against on behalf of the US.

The joint communiqué corrects this impression by mentioning the realization of the need for US-Pakistan cooperation in ensuring peace and stability in Afghanistan during and after the projected withdrawal of US and NATO forces from there. The US has given Pakistan the role of a mediator to get the rebel Afghan Taliban to go for talks with the US-backed government in Kabul.

Democratic recognition

Significantly, the communiqué recognizes Pakistan as a democracy and says that US-Pakistan cooperation rests on the fact that both are committed to democracy and human rights. This is a shot in the arm for civilian rule in Pakistan in general and Sharif in particular, given that civilian rule and civilian rulers in Pakistan are always under the threat of a military takeover.

In return for these favourable changes in Washington's perception of Islamabad, Sharif has said that Pakistan will not allow its territory to be used by terror groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba or the Haqqani group to stage attacks against any country (read Afghanistan and India).

However, the communiqué is silent on the US drone attacks in Pakistan's tribal areas. The US has so far carried out about 376 drone strikes in Pakistan killing over 2500 people including 926 civilians who had nothing to do with terrorism. The drone strikes have made the Pakistan Government very unpopular among a cross section of Pakistanis. Instead of curbing militancy, drone strikes have only given a fillip to it and has made the Pakistan Army, seen as a stooge of the US and hence a target of militant attacks. Pakistan has tried to influence US drone strikes to avoid civilian casualties but not very successfully.

Sharif failed to get the US to intervene and mediate in Pakistan's long standing dispute with India over Kashmir, which is a Muslim-majority State currently in the possession of India. But the US agreed to insert a paragraph in the joint communiqué mentioning Kashmir as being among Pakistan-India disputes to be settled through talks, albeit only bilaterally. This has raised hackles in New Delhi, but Washington had to mention the "K word" to get Islamabad on board on other issues of vital concern to it.

The joint communiqué ignores Pakistan's complaint that India is fomenting terrorism and separatism in Baluchistan Province through its bases in Afghanistan. The communiqué also does not mention Pakistan's complaint that India is preventing Pakistan from playing its legitimate role in Afghanistan.

Nevertheless, in return for Pakistan's help to pursue its various strategic interests in the region, Washington has pledged a huge economic and military aid package to Islamabad - aid which will give the latter a sense of security vis-à-vis India. Such American support is critical because, in Islamabad, India is seen as a rising economic and military power which could threaten the very existence of Pakistan.

According to the New York Times, in April, the US State Department approved a billion dollars worth of military hardware to Pakistan. On May 14, combat aircraft and 59 trainer jets and 374 armoured personnel carriers were handed over. There is also a promise to sell eight F-16 fighter jets, though this could be shot down by Congress.

On the general economic front, the Sharif-Obama communiqué mentions Obama's commitment to help create conditions in Pakistan which will make that country attractive to US investment. The General System of Preferences (GSP) has been re-authorized. There is already a US-Pakistan Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA). More specifically, Obama told Sharif that Pakistani companies could participate in US Department of Defence procurement opportunities related to the operations in Afghanistan.

Interdependence

The Sharif-Obama communiqué underscores the fact that despite deep differences in interests and perceptions - and existing mutual suspicions - both countries need each other to pursue their economic and geo-political interests. The US needs Pakistan to fight its war against Islamic radicals entrenched in Afghanistan and spreading their tentacles all over the world. It also has to keep Pakistan from going the China way or the Russian way. It also needs Pakistan to help conduct dialogues with its adversaries in Afghanistan.

But at the same time, the US has to keep Pakistan on the leash so that it does not become adventurous vis-à-vis India which the US sees as a huge economic market, and of late, a strategic ally too. The US has been deftly using the carrot and the stick to bring Pakistan to toe its line vis-à-vis India and Afghanistan.

As for Pakistan, it needs the US to keep itself economically afloat and meet any threat from India. Experience shows that it is only the US and not China, which can help control India. While making friendly noises, China had failed to come to Pakistan's aid in the 1965 and 1971 wars with India, the latter resulting in the secession of Pakistan's most populous part - East Pakistan/Bangladesh. And it is only the US which can goad India to talk to Pakistan on the Kashmir issue.