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Sunday, 24 February 2002  
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A step at a time

It's only one more step, but it is, nevertheless, a step forward in a very important direction - towards a permanent peace and social reconciliation. When Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe trod the A9 upto the army frontlines near Omanthai after signing the Ceasefire Agreement, he must surely have wished he could go further. Sadly, in this land that is torn apart by war, the Premier could not.

Nevertheless, he and his fellow Sri Lankans are today hopeful that the stabled ceasefire is a development that will lead to greater things in the future: a bridging of the divide, an unifying of people and country.

If the first step in the renewed peace process occurred when the LTTE unilaterally declared a ceasefire and the Government reciprocated, an important second step occurred when the Government unilaterally took the initiative to ease security restrictions countrywide and lift the economic embargo against LTTE-held areas.

Given these confidence-building exercises, the ceasefire has held, on an ad hoc basis, for almost two months. The easing of hostilities was a catalyst for a burst of activity to further normalise civilian life in war-affected areas. It also created the environment and basis for moves to push the peace process further.

Last week Sri Lanka took a third step forward: the formalising of a stable 'cessation of hostilities' with the potential for this cessation to prevail in the long term. This third step, it is hoped, will enable further moves toward peace: preparations to begin formal political negotiations. The Prime Minister has already committed the Government to a start sometime in March.

Even in this, there will inevitably be many interim stages before actual negotiations begin. There will be 'talks about talks',that is, negotiations over the agenda for political negotiations, the venue, the time frame, the composition of the negotiating teams, their briefs and capacities and, a host of other matters, some quite mundane, some quite historically and politically significant.

The process of formal political negotiations itself will be complex and long-drawn-out. How it will conclude is best left for future developments to indicate. Given the tragic uncertainties of the peace effort over more than a decade, more interim steps need to be taken before we dare speculate about future success.

After all, what happened on Friday, is similar to what has happened at least twice in our recent history: suspensions of hostilities, the cautious initiation of talks. What could happen may be similar to that which has also happened twice in our recent history: the breakdown of ceasefires and the aggressive resumption of war.

Already there are ominous signs of the intrinsic dangers of this kind of process. Thursday's sea battle off Mullaitivu was the worst incident of fighting since the ceasefire began last December. In fact it was the only incident of actual armed confrontation between the two sides in the entire ceasefire period so far. Thursday evening also saw, in Vavuniya, the mysterious shooting deaths of five persons most of whom were cadres of a militant fighting outfit opposed to the LTTE.

As Minister G. L. Peiris has been warning repeatedly, we must expect such lapses in the ceasefire and respond to them in a way that the ceasefire itself does not collapse.

At the same time, that other critical factor, a consensual politics at national level, received a minor setback when President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga on Friday accused the Government of being secretive about the ceasefire agreement. Whether or not President Kumaratunga missed a Cabinet meeting,it must be acknowledged that the President requires consultation and so do the People's Alliance, other political groups, and finally, the mass of citizenry. Having come this far in dealing with this conflict, the lack of consensus should not be allowed to hamper much needed moves to peace.

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