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| Sunday, 2 June 2002 |
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War dramas or, how not to relax in Delhi Observations by LAKSHMAN GUNASEKERA "Relax!" says the red 'Stop' sign of the traffic light on Vikas Marg, just before the bridge over the Yamuna River (that's the word imprinted on the red lights in Delhi; I don't know about the red light district, though). But, boiling as I am in the incredible heat at a typical Delhi summer temperature of 46 degrees Celsius, I cannot, as I sit in the back of the taxi-cab and ponder at the casual jingoism of the shopkeepers I had just chatted up in the Inner Circle of Connaught Place. If their 'Retaliation Itch' to quote the latest cover headline of an Indian newsweekly was to be satisfied, Delhi may, at that very moment, be awaiting the arrival of Pakistani nuclear-tipped missiles, I think, as the cab driver searches the radio channels for a newscast on the latest on the (latest) 'Indo-Pak' tensions. With an acute feeling of deja vu I recall my same sense of rejection of the traffic red light's exhortation a few years back when I was in the Indian capital at the height of the Kargil War. Then, too, I felt trapped in the traffic jam as I worried over the possibility of the Pakistanis firing off their missiles at any moment in a 'pre-emptive strike'. That same trapped feeling was acute during my visit to the Indian capital last week courtesy of the United Nations' programme on HIV/AIDS (they had invited a few newspaper editors of the region for the launch of a new project). This time round, "first strike", that classic phrase of nuclear war terminology, was being so casually thrown about by some of the Indian intelligentsia I met that I soon realised that there were vast masses of people, probably on both sides of the border, who itched to use their new-found war toy. The Indians are so infuriated by what they perceive as Islamabad's continuing encouragement of insurgency in Kashmir that, after the latest round of atrocities in that beautiful, salubrious Valley, they seem eager to teach the Pakistanis a lesson 'once and for all', as it were. And, in nuclear war it really is 'once and for all'. And the Pakistanis, on their part, keenly aware of their inability to resist India's conventional military might, seem all too ready to immerse themselves in Jihadi frenzy and launch into that suicidal nuclear ultimate. 'Limited war', however, is the favourite scenario of the more staid civilian bureaucracy in Delhi, too aware of the economic (not so much the human) costs of atomic battle to go along with what seemed to be the popular nuclear bravado. Interestingly, the Indian military technocracy, no doubt knowing the sheer futility of a nuclear exchange as well as the non-viability of even a limited conventional assault to punish cross-border insurgents in Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, seem the least jingoistic. After all, it is they who know the reality of war. So, the hot-blooded pronouncements of Indian politicians, of all hues except the Left (both moderate and extreme Left), are clearly more a drama, of which the composers of the Mahabharata would be proud, rather than actual policy. Perhaps that is what the exponents of Hindutva politics, who currently dominate Indian power structures, wish they were enacting - a great cosmic epic. The antics on the Pakistani side too smack of the fantasies of religious fanatics eager to exploit the Islamic legacy to a self-indulgent extreme as they frantically flex their political muscle in self-reassurance of their identity in the face of 'external' Infidel enemies in both the East and West. We, in the rest of South Asia, accustomed as we are to both contemporary Bollywood melodrama as well as the fanatical politics of religious and ethnic extremists, can, on reflection, assess the limits of these pitiful fantasies, of even the limits of the realpolitik. But those in the Western global power centres obviously cannot. Hence, the procession of Western diplomatic emissaries to Delhi and Islamabad. In fact, within hours of leaving Delhi, in Chennai, I seem far away from the tensions of 'Indo-Pak' as I shop in teeming, happily consumerist, T'nagar and lunch, courtesy of my Tamil Nadu friends, in the genteel calm of the Madras Cricket Club. If people in Delhi were too immersed in northern nationalistic tensions to marvel over the dramatic emergence of South Asia's newest polity (yet emerging, no doubt) just across the Palk Straits, those in Chennai were sharply dismissive of the North's wasteful histrionics and were all too aware of the intense problematics of the Sri Lankan peace process. After all, ethno-cultural affinities south of the Krishna River more easily bridge the Palk Straits rather than the Krishna. Yes, my friends (media commentators, analysts, academics, social activists) told me, Chennai was fully aware of the implications of the Government-LTTE Cease-fire Agreement. Yes, they were equally aware of the difficulties of fulfilling all the provisions of the Agreement and of the complexity of the peace process beyond the Agreement. In fact, they seemed more aware of the possibilities and impossibilities inherent in the current Sri Lanka scenario than some people on this side of Palk Straits. When I speculated, for example, at the possibility of a new state of Eelam, analysts in Chennai scoffed at what they called 'Eelamist fantasies', pointing to geo-political parameters already laid down by Washington, Oslo, London and Delhi, to mention but some of the global political power centres playing various roles in the Sri Lankan peace process. No, a genuinely self-ruled confederal state is what the Sri Lankan Tamils will get, at most : was Chennai's perception. At the same time, people in Chennai were acutely aware of the danger of delays to the peace process caused by politics and politicking in the South. Interestingly, people I met in both Delhi as well as Chennai seemed more appreciative of the continuing role of Chandrika Kumaratunga than people in this country. Critical to them was the balance of power between the governing UNF and the PA. After all, Tamil Nadu has been too involved in the Sri Lankan ethnic conflict not know the complexities of political power contests within the Sinhala community that could impinge on the peace process (and have done so, in the past). Almost as if to confirm the practicality of these Chennai perceptions, I arrive home in time to hear the President give an assurance that she was not about to sabotage the on-going peace process by trying, among other things, to bring down the UNF government by dissolving Parliament. But just as much the panjandrums in Delhi insist that Pakistan's pronouncements about not exporting 'terrorism' (will someone please explain the exact meaning of this much-bandied term? None of the new UN treaties do, while the new Canadian and US laws make even small-town car hijackings a 'terrorist' offence!) can only be believed once there is evidence of a genuine halt to insurgent infiltrations across the Line of Control, here too, it will only be in practice that both sides of the interminable UNP-SLFP contest can show that that contest has been suspended at least for the purpose of completing the peace process. There has to be clear evidence that both sides have ended their efforts to undermine each other's political capacities. Whatever the pious pronouncements, both the UNP as well the SLFP must, in actual practice, end all actions that undermine or threaten to undermine each other. So far, there has been no indication of that. That is why, not just people in India, but the people of this country, have doubts about the feasibility of taking the current peace process to its logical conclusion - that is, a political arrangement that will ensure a long term peace and stability. Everyone knows that the Cease-fire is only a temporary phase. History has taught us that - all too violently. Unless long term political arrangements - in terms of constitutional reform - are agreed upon and implemented, there is every danger of the Cease-fire collapsing sooner or later. That has been past experience, not once but at least on three occasions. The contest between North and South can only be finally resolved only if the contest between forces in the South is suspended, at least temporarily in some form. Till then, there is no guarantee of peace. Till then, we, Sri Lankans, cannot relax. |
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