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Sunday Essay by Ajith Samaranayake

With five months of the year 2002 burnt out and the country embarked on the remainder of the year what is the state of play? The year was no doubt dominated by the euphoria which attended on the accession to power of the United National Front Government and while some of that euphoria still lingers the Government itself has had to face the realities of the situation. The Memorandum of Understanding signed with the LTTE has no doubt given the Government some much-needed breathing space but much will hinge on what progress the peace process makes in the months to come.

Year was no doubt dominated by the euphoria which attended on the accession to power of the United National Front Government and while some of that euphoria still lingers the Government itself has had to face the realities of the situation.

Writing in the 'Daily News' in December last year I said that the advent of the UNF would see the inauguration of a non-ideological phase of politics in the country and events have largely borne out this observation.

If at all the Government has posited any ideology it has been peace and this has been over-arching enough to bring within its fold sections of all kinds of persuasions and sometimes even no persuasion at all.

Government and Opposition, the Maha Sangha and NGOs, peaceniks and radicals, orators and songsters and even the Neelan Tiruchelvam Trust (incurring the jibes of some past admirers) have all joined the cavalcade to Jaffna in pursuit of the Holy Grail.

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, of course, had six years to learn the lessons of the PA Government's abortive peace talks with the LTTE which lasted a bare few months.

The PA then was anxious to discuss substantive political issues with the LTTE but the LTTE was more keen to talk of the day-to-day problems of the Tamil people and any possible infrastructural development of the North and the East. The present Government having seen the pitfalls of that process has reversed it and although the LTTE is still griping over some of the unresolved issues in the MOU it has shown a greater willingness this time round to give the peace process a chance with even its Eastern Province leader Karikalan, who had been painted as a hawk, suddenly surfacing last week to make some placatory noises over national television.

The point, however, is what success the discussion on substantive issues will meet when it gets off the ground in Thailand. Will the discussion be confined to the Interim Administration and if an LTTE-dominated interim administration is granted what will the reaction in the South be? If the talks proceed beyond that what will the maximum demand of the LTTE be? What interpretation will it give the new concept of 'internal self-determination' which was the new vogue-word to emerge from Prabhakaran's press conference? These are all questions on the answers to which will depend much of the developments of the future whether for good or for ill. Much will also depend on duration of the process of negotiations.

While the Prime Minister has repeatedly made it clear that the process can be long drawn-out on the other hand the longer the process takes the easier it will be for those who wish to scuttle it.

To be sure at the moment there are no takers for those who would wish to beat the war drums but partly the success of the process will also depend on how satisfied the people at large are that the absence of war has paid dividends. Of course the absence of war does not mean that military expenditure can be slashed overnight but if the people are not to be disgruntled there will have to be some kind of amelioration in their conditions of living.

This, of course, means faster rates of growth and the Government which is unequivocally wedded to an open market economy is certainly in a better position to tackle this problem than the PA.

But again any vigorous or full-blooded development can be brought about only in conditions of political stability and how long this takes is again anybody's guess.

The single heartening factor for the Government is the fact that the Opposition is so palpably divided over the issue of a settlement. The Old Left parties within the PA are obviously at odds with the SLFP while the SLFP itself is still ambiguous. It cannot be seen to scuttle the process but that is the only issue within sight which can mobilise substantial emotions.

The JVP has clearly realised this and hence its newly-mounted bandwagon which features such unlikely stars as Mr. Anura Bandaranike and Mrs. Ferial Ashraff. The SLFP is also handicapped by the fact that it has to contend with two poles of gravity, the President and the Leader of the Opposition.

Paradoxically enough President Kumaratunga, who was once shown as the best bet for peace has easily resorted to sabre-rattling when called upon on occasion while Mr. Mahinda Rajapakse who has never shirked the role of Sinhala champion is now caught in the posture of statesmanship as befitting his new office.

Again the agenda and campaign of the anti-Government forces will be determined by the nature of the talks which will take place in Thailand.

How much of progress can be made and how soon? If the talks drag on as they well can how successfully will the Government be able to contain the opposition to it in the South? In this sense the Government is not unaware of the powers the President enjoys under the Constitution to monitor the talks and demand that she should be consulted or even that she should actively intervene in the process.

The position is compounded by the fact that Mrs. Kumaratunga is the Leader of the SLFP and actively takes part in its political campaigns. How will the Government set about convincing her or failing that neutralising her? These are also vital questions.

So the rest of the year will be governed by two imperatives. What progress will the negotiations with the LTTE make? What strategies does the Government have to keep the people satisfied during this admittedly protracted period? And perhaps it may not be inopportune to keep a third factor in mind.

Will the LTTE do anything to put a spanner in the works as it has done so many times in the past?

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