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by FACTOTUM

The title of this piece was the topic that brought out a range of points leading up to a lively discussion at a seminar - a short two hour session really, at that centre for development studies-Marga Institute.

Historians we are told are story tellers and story tellers are known to set up imaginative scenarios. A historian who projects his mind to the future, steps beyond the parameters that are normally adhered to moving into the realm of speculation and uncertainty.

The main speaker at the seminar, a Professori, set up two polar scenarios qualifying his position that multiple scenarios could be set up but considering the constraints of time and other limitations he preferred to confer on (a) the price of peace and (b) the cost of war.Alluding to the fact that military victory either way is not feasible it was seen as clearly advantageous for both parties to strike a deal bartering the deproscription of the LTTE against adequate safeguards for all communities to live in North East. Trust building exercises such as releasing of prisoners was suggested. The setting up of an Interim Administration and the establishment of normalcy would accrue benefits that could help to transform the LTTE from a revolutionary outfit to a political one.

Thorny issues of budgetary allocations and the withdrawal of the army bases would have to be ironed out. Tigers in police service could lead to the politicisation of such a service and the all important question of latitude for dissent would crop up. But these were mentioned as the challenges that would have to be met. It was noted that the aspirations of the Muslim community had not been recognised in the MOU and the need to set up adequate structures to ensure the sharing of resources by all communities was stressed. Generalisation of the position taken up by the Bhikkhus could be dangerous but it was noted that they had proposed the deproscription of the LTTE. The price to be paid for peace was rated as high.

The second scenario presented a gloomy picture. A breakdown of the peace process would lead to the continuation of war and the stalemate of war may well lead to factionalism that would eventually bring about a collapse of the Government. The LTTE may have hopes of victory with teenagers as new recruits boosting their strength. With rival groups being disarmed there is general acceptance of the LtTE as representatives of the people. In an ultimate settlement will the North and East remain unamalgamated was a poser.

Responding to these two scenarios were two discussants. One of them plainly advanced his view as being pessimistic underling the fact that no peaceful solution was possible with fundamentalists (not in a religious sense) and fanatics and that the call for negotiations is, as has been always, for tactical reasons. The LTTE is a major influence in areas where ballot and bullet have failed. The only way in which a permanent ceasefire would hold is by bringing in the big guns as guarantors.

The second discussant steered away from the polar positions and stressed that there was space for an intermediate position. Political and civil society groups could influence the turn of events. Imbalance in land settlement, in recruitment to the police should be resolved. Special recruitment for the North East was suggested. Greater contacts between the communities and a reversal of ethnic cleansing leading up to the return of the displaced were seen as setting the stage for a delayed Referendum.

Delays in bringing about constitutional changes may give the impression that the situation has been let to drift. But any scenario in which time consuming discussions, negotiations, debates, arguments and even insults being traded was preferable to picking up the gun again.

Looking beyond the MOU then, presents a multiplicity of scenarios. Whatever the delays and constraints, working towards a successful finish with organisations like Marga providing the fora for the unwinding of taut and hard positions was considered salutary as opposed to the carving out of a State with hardly any inhabitants.

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