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| Sunday, 9 February 2003 |
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UNF-PA together - only guarantee of permanent peace Sixth Sense by Raj Gonsalkorale Every leader, at every Independence Day celebration has preached from the pulpit promising a better Sri Lanka for the present and future generations. These leaders and their flock then go back to their cocoons of luxury and comfort only to emerge one year later to deliver their next sermon and their excuses. Our most pressing issue is the fragile peace process, with no one really knowing where we are heading, other than perhaps knowing the very outer line for a settlement based on a sweeping generalisation made by the Prime Minister that anything and everything except a separate State for the LTTE is negotiable and is up for grabs. The difficult position that the Prime Minister is placed in and his achievement in having a ceasefire without any major violations for more than one year should not be undermined or underestimated. The Prime Minister deserves our kudos for this. One cannot forget though the role played by the President and the political settlement process begun by her some years ago. This peace process, like any other peace process which has begun after years of enmity, and suspicion and violent conflict, will be fraught with a countless number of obstacles and setbacks. Nothing less can be expected. It is not a negotiation process that has commenced as a result of conviction; it is something that has been forced on both parties. It is naive to expect the LTTE not to make ambit claims and it is naive to expect their cadres to lay down arms just yet. They will do so only when they have greater confidence in the direction of the peace process and when they see the format of a political solution. They have made a major strategic switch from insisting on a separate State as the only acceptable political solution, and have indicated their willingness to accept a model that provides significant devolution. The very likely reason for entering into a ceasefire is the acceptance that the Sri Lankan government cannot defeat the terrorism of the LTTE even if they hold them to a no win situation in conventional military combat. The bombing at Katunayake, which destroyed half the commercial air fleet of the country, as well as half the Air Force, put paid to any notions that LTTE terrorism could be defeated. LTTE domination in conventional and non-conventional combat has won them a place in the sun now, with various international agencies and emissaries of influential world figures trekking to the Vanni to meet this elusive terrorist leader. The reality The reality, unfortunately, is that politics and political expediency drives everything and might win most of the time, and right very rarely does. Some may also argue that LTTE domination is based on might, not right, considering that asymmetrical devolution which appears to be their guiding principle for a political settlement does not provide equal rights and opportunities to all Tamils in the country. It could be said that it creates two classes of Tamils within the country, with those in the North and East having greater rights than their brothers and sisters in the rest of the country. In the current circumstances, one might say that this is inevitable and that it is the only way to avoid war. This has come about due to the strength of the LTTE and it is an admission that might has won the day from right. If we are to believe what some doubters of the LTTE motives have been saying all along, this may only be the first step in LTTE attempts to have greater control of the whole country, as a pivotal balance of power force in National politics. By itself, it is not a bad thing for a major Tamil political grouping to exert a balancing influence in National politics, to prevent any future domination of National politics by a Sinhala majority. True cohabitation between the Sinhalese and the Tamils might then become a reality within a unitary State. In the present circumstances, the ceasefire, absence of war and an eventual political settlement are our priorities. This cannot be achieved unless all major segments of our political establishment are made inclusive members of the peace process. The government and the LTTE and a section of the Muslim minority of the East are not the only components of this process. The Peoples Alliance in particular has to be a part of this process as they represent at least 40% of the electorate in Sri Lanka. It would have been acceptable protocol if the President was a non-political appointee or an independent elected to that position, and she was kept "informed" about the progress of peace negotiations. She is, however, the head of a major political grouping, and she and her political grouping have to be an equal member of the negotiation process and not merely "informed" outsiders. Whatever that happened in the past and precedents established as per the Liam Fox agreement, it is not acceptable and advisable for the future of the peace process to keep the President just "informed" of discussions and not be made an equal partner of the peace process. The Liam Fox Agreement must represent contemporary reality and what is strategically relevant and wise. Notwithstanding the Liam Fox Agreement, the fragility of the Wickremesinghe government more than anything else should compel the UNF to include the PA as an equal partner of the negotiating process and make them co-owners of the outcome of a negotiated solution. Not only will this make it easier for Ranil Wickremesinghe to pass necessary legislation in Parliament when the time comes, but it will also ensure that the LTTE is not rewarded purely for might. The LTTE If the LTTE is interested in a genuine but durable political solution, they must accept this situation and the pivotal role that the President and the Peoples Alliance has to play in the ongoing peace process. It is not sufficient and it is bad strategy, for the government to negotiate, enter into an agreement with the LTTE, only to see it defeated in Parliament due to PA opposition. It is strategically and politically wise, and adds credibility to the whole process if the PA is represented at the Peace talks and they are co-owners of any in principle agreements so that Parliamentary approval will be guaranteed except for minor changes to details but not the principles. Outcomes from the current direction of the peace process could fail when an agreement is debated and voted in Parliament as the PA is bound to play politics just as the UNP did when the Chandrika Kumaratunga government negotiated the PA peace proposals with the UNP . The credibility of the government, and that of the Sinhala people, will be in doubt once again, and this time irreversibly, as the LTTE will have justification to announce to the world that they went down the path of peace, but as they suspected all along and said so all along, the Sinhala people demonstrated their inability to accept Tamils as equals and to live with them in peace. While this is certainly not the view of an overwhelming majority of Sinhalese, this is what the LTTE propagandists will announce to the world, and this time their propaganda will have credibility unlike in the past, as there will not be room for the Sinhala politicians to argue with any credibility that they are right and the LTTE is wrong. World sympathy will always be with the so called "oppressed" and the LTTE propaganda machinery will be doing overtime to show they are the oppressed. Prime Minister Wickremasinghe is undoubtedly in a difficult position. He has to keep his fragile flock together and remain the leader of his flock. One wrong move and he will be consigned to history. He has been astute so far, but the wolves from within and outside are not far away and they will pounce as soon as they detect a weakness in the Prime Ministers handling of the peace process. He is however at the crease and he must act with even more political acumen and foresight to avoid tripping on his own feet as all his predecessors did. One guiding principle must determine the peace process, and that should be equal rights, opportunities and security for all in any and all parts of the country. |
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