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Business sector hopes Iraq war will be short

Several sections of the business community hoped that the strike on Iraq by the USA would not last long, but warned that if it continued, it would have serious repercussions on Sri Lanka.

For the first time Sri Lanka has been selected as the venue for the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Rregional Co-operation (IOR-ARC)and IOR Business Forum (IOR-BF)meetings, scheduled from March 29-April 3 where 19 member states are expected to participate with Sri Lanka as the chairmanship of IOR-ARC.

A spoksman for the National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka said that upto now there have been no cancellations and it would be held as scheduled but everything would depend on the feed back from the member countries.

Concurrent to IOR-ARC, "IMEXPRO 2003," the international trade fair, organised by the Ceylon chamber of Commerce (CCC) will be held from March 30 - April 1 2003, at the Sri Lanka Exhibition and Convention centre. A spokesman for the CCC said that upto Friday morning there were no cancellations. The delegation from Saudi Arabia was due on Friday (21) while the delegates from Dubai and Oman too have confirmed their participation on Friday morning(21). Alltogether about 250 delegates are expected from abroad.

SLFVPPEA

Sri Lanka Fruits and Vegetable Producers, Processors and Exporters Association (SLFVPPEA) Chairman Sarath de Silva said that they are hoping that this would end soon. "At present the two main problems faced by our association is transporting cargo and recovering the money from the suppliers,"he said.

He said that at any given time total exports on unsecured credit was in the region of US$ three million and therefore their main fear is recovering the money from suppliers. "During the Kuwait war in 1991, our members lost around US$ 150-200,000 as we could not recover the money. SriLankan Airlines has minimised transportation of perishables while most of the other airlines will not accept perishable cargo as they have to take a large stock of fuel for a long distance of flying due to the war.

"We have requested the SriLankan Airlines to help us to keep the market going as we might lose business. due to the present situation."

De Silva said that as a result of motivating the farmers a bumper harvest of 3000 kg of water melon was achieved and it would either have to be processed or sold in the local market as exporting was difficult at present.

"We will take the best out of the bad situation and concentrate on growing the vegetables and fruits so that we can start exporting as soon as the war is over," he said.

Chairman, Tourism Cluster Prema Cooray, said:" There is no indication of any cancellations of hotel bookings from tour operators and as such the impact will not be severe at present but it may affect future bookings if the war continues indefinitely."

TEA

Joint Managing Director, Bartleet Group, Bryan Baptist, said: There is a temporary lull in the market and he is confident that the war will end soon. At present no tea is shipped for export as the markets are closed in the Middle East, but people should not panic as the war will hopefully end soon. "

He said "As soon as the war ends, the tea market will bounce back and the need of the hour is for banks to be flexible and extend credit to brokers who in turn can extend that facility to factory owners to help the leaf suppliers.

Chairman Private Tea factory owners Dr Sarath Samaraweera said:Factory owners in the low grown areas have to advance money to small holders. If this situation continues, we will not have money to advance them but the small holders expections are high as the Sinhala New year is around the corner. In our context the timimg of the war is very bad. Also as tea is not an essential commodity it is one of the main items that will be ignored in a crisis situation. Therefore if the war continues the amount of unsold teas at the auction may increase even by about 25-30 percent of the total amount.

Petroleum

A spokesman for Ceylon Petroleum Corporation(CPC) said fears on possible scarcities of oil in the country due to U.S-Iraq war gaining momentum, has been allayed by CPC. CPC sources said that they have adequate stocks of crude oil and refined products to meet the demand for fuel and by products for at least two months.

Despite the war, Sri Lanka continues to import its regular stocks of crude and refined products. The main suppliers are Iran and Malaysia.

In addition to these, the Indian Oil Company (IOC) too has agreed to supply Sri Lanka with stocks of refined products of petrol and diesel, the spokesman said.

A stock of two million tonnes of crude oil is refined annually at the Sapugakande refinery, the spokesman said.

"It is still too early to predict on difficulties in sea transportation, however if they do occur, Sri Lanka can look to India for increased supplies of oil," he said.

Emirates, the Dubai-based international airline, will continue to operate normal services despite the start of hostilities in Iraq, a media release issued by the Emirates Colombo office said.

The airline went live today with additional website pages, set up to provide full information, updated regularly, on any changes which may arise on scheduled flights as a result of military activity in the region, the release said.

Maurice Flanagan, Emirates Group Managing Director, said: "Safety remains a top priority. The airline will monitor the situation 24 hours a day, seven days a week to ensure everything , for the well-being of our flight and cabin crew and our passengers. "We are using alternative routes where necessary. These are well-established and recognised as safe by all international aviation authorities. Emirates has never flown over Iraq, even under normal conditions, and none of our routes takes our aircraft near to that country."

From Dubai, there are several different air routes eastwards and westwards which are long established and recognised by international authorities. An airline's use of alternative routes is not restricted to times of conflict. Sometimes they are varied to avoid poor weather conditions.

During the past few months, Emirates has prepared meticulous plans to route aircraft heading east and west along corridors which are safe and secure even in the event of military activity in Iraq. These options ensure that Emirates carries its passengers in safety and security, well clear from hostilities, to their destinations.

Flights to Europe, ie, can be routed north over Iran, Georgia and then west over the Black Sea or they can be routed in a more easterly direction over southern Saudi Arabia. Flights to the Pacific Rim can be moved to a more northerly route, again over Iran.

Central Bank

Central Bank sources said that there is no reason to panic at the moment as Sri Lankas foreign reserves are sufficient for five months, but if it does continue we will have problems. Central bank is closely monitoring the situation at present. Ceylon National Chamber of Industries Chairman Ranjith Hettiarachchy said that local industries will be affected if the oil prices rise, Therefore we should consider this as an opportunity and develop the local production of raw material and agriculture as the price of imports are bound to shoot up if the war continues and shortterm solutions will have no effect he added. We should also be mindful of the fact that we have a large workforce in the Middle East while tea exports too will be affected badly due to the war.

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