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| Sunday, 23 March 2003 |
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Features |  |
| News Business Features Editorial
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Today is World Meteorological Day : Climate change concerns us all Sri Lanka faces a number of risks from climate change. Altered rainfall patterns that could affect crops, a rise in sea levels causing sea erosion, an increase in intense droughts and cyclones, as well as in vector-borne and water-borne diseases are some of them. by Vimukthi Fernando What could be more innocent than using liquid petroleum (LP) gas for
cooking your food, driving your car to work and turning a switch for a
little bit of light ? These are the very basic everyday acts we carry These issues of 'development', especially modern energy, transport and land use, and its linkages to climate change was the focus of the 'expert meeting' of the Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) held in Colombo recently. What is climate change and why should we bother about it? Let us look at some statistics. The earth and the sun are estimated to be 3,500 million years old, and the sun is believed to be at its half-life. Human civilization is only 10,000 years old, as initially it took billions of years to evolve a climate conducive for human habitation. But in comparison, the past century has brought about many a change. Man had started to pollute the skies with carbon and dust particles that had been sequestered in the earth's bowels for millions of years. And what is the consequence ? Global warming and climate change. The third assessment report of the IPCC released in 2001 says that the climate will change more rapidly than expected. Global mean surface temperatures are projected to increase by 1.4 - 5.8 degrees centigrade by 2,100. and mean sea levels by 9 - 88 centimetres. Changes in rainfall patterns, increasing the threat of drought or floods, extreme weather events such as heat waves and intense storms, flooding of many low lying coastal areas prompting the 'disappearance' of many small low lying islands are expected as a result. The Asian region is already suffering from some consequences of climate change. * Extreme events have changed in temperate Asia, including floods, droughts, forest fires and tropical cyclones. * Thermal and water stress, flood and drought, sea level rise and tropical cyclones would diminish food security in countries of arid, tropical and temperate Asia; agriculture would expand and increase in productivity in northern areas. * Reduced soil moisture in summer may increase land degradation and desertification. Sea level rise and increase in intensity of tropical cyclones would displace tens of millions of people in low lying coastal areas of temperate and tropical Asia. (Source: Impacts of climate change by region: Poverty & Climate Change - Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor - Oct 2002)
What does all this mean ? Less rain, more thunder and lightning, and days and nights growing warmer and warmer ? Not only so, says Prof. Mohan Munasinghe vice chairperson of IPCC. A panel of 30 leading experts researching on impacts in different sectors has found out 5 major risks of climate change to Sri Lanka. Food and water resources have become extremely vulnerable to climate change, changing precipitation and rainfall patterns will adversely affect crops (grain in particular) and may create a shifting of seasons. Farmers who depend on rainfed agriculture will be the highest affected. Water shortages will not only affect the dry zone but other areas too. The potential sea level rise threatens coastal areas with erosion and submersion. There would also be an increase of extreme weather events such as intense droughts and cyclones. Not to be out done, the increasing temperature will set about an increase in vector-borne and water-borne diseases. And Sri Lanka has a potential threat of malaria. How do we face the challenges posed ? Sustainable development seems to be the key. But unfortunately the warmer world seems to be growing colder at heart. "The relative vulnerability of different regions to adverse impacts of climate change is largely determined by their access to resources, information and technology and by the stability and effectiveness of their institutions. "This means that possibilities to promote sustainable development will be affected more negatively by climate change among developing countries and among less-privileged populations", states the IPCC report. Major challenges faced by the developing world and countries such as Sri Lanka would be to provide adequate food and water, clean air, modern energy, transport and housing to its populations and of proper land use. Sri Lanka in its country report to the 8th conference of parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, October 2002 recognised the "need to move towards integrated approaches such as integrated coastal zone management, and further developing integrated assessment models as well as identifying effective adaptation strategies and assessing how these could be integrated into national development programmes." Sri Lanka's National Forestry Policy, Transport Policy and Policy on Air Quality Management were stated under policies, legal enactments and plans that contribute to mitigation of climate change effects. Sri Lanka also accepted the sustainable development process and boasted that "environment protection is an integral part of the development process and any breakdown in the environmental stability would have serious implications to the stability of long-term development in the country," in its national report to the World Summit on Sustainable Development in August 2002. Though policy, legal enactments, plans and reports look very encouraging on paper, the ground situation at implication and grass roots levels stay increasingly dismal for over the last two decades. Climate change is not just an 'environment concern' anymore. It has become a concern of each and every individual and more so of the decision makers for "human activities in the short-term would set in motion a chain of events with long-term consequences for the climate that cannot be reversed quickly, if at all." The spectre of climate change is awaking, stretching its tentacles beyond greenhouse gases, and into the realm of social justice and social responses. It is time that we wake up from our slumber as well. |
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out,
most of the time mechanically, to make our lives more 'comfortable and
easy'. Yet, these 'innocent' acts of an ever-rising standard of living
possess the greatest threat to the future survival of mankind.
And Sri Lanka, an island nation cannot escape from the effects of
climate change either. The Department of Meteorology which had faithfully
recorded meterological data over the past 100 years reports an increase in
the annual mean air temperature over the entire island, "particularly
during the period 1961-90. this increase was found to be approximately
0.16 degrees centigrade per decade. Rainfall trends were found to be
complex. A decreasing trend was evident over most of the island except in
some isolated areas in the north west, where an increasing trend was
indicated. Thunder activity, which showed an increasing trend was found to
be positively correlated with air temperature."
