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Shooting down media hype

by Ranga Jayasuriya

Sometimes, media also thrives in chaos, that means an abundance of news. In the absence of chaos, desperate efforts could be made to suggest an impending crisis, that would add a little more weight to an otherwise not so important story.

Did the Tiger supremo give the government an ultimatum during his Heroes' Day speech? Does his announcement amount to a declaration of war?

Judging by the response made by the LTTE leadership last week, Prabha's speech does not amount to a declaration of the war, nor has he given an ultimatum.

But, media, specially those of foreign and news agencies, were full of gloomy predictions. That is partly a problem with the local knowledge of the reporters who have been uprooted from somewhere to be parachuted on foreign soil.

That is also due to the absence of an understanding of the complexities of the country's ethnic problem. Of course the Tiger supremo told, in his own words that," our people have lost patience, hope and reached the brink of utter frustration. They are not prepared to tolerate and wait any longer. The new government should come forward soon with a reasonable political framework that will satisfy the political aspirations of the Tamil people."

Tiger supremo

"If the new government rejects our urgent appeal, opts for a hard-line position and adopts delaying tactics, we will, next year, in solidarity with our people, intensify our struggle for self-determination, our struggle for national liberation to establish self-government in our own homeland."

The LTTE, more than any other party should be held responsible for the slow progress in the peace process. This was after all the most promising peace effort three years ago, when the Sudanese peace negotiations were at its infancy and no one dreamed of a negotiated settlement in the East Timor.

But, the LTTE withdrew from formal peace talks in April 2003, which saw the gradual collapse of the once promising peace effort.

Only rhetoric

But, going by the previous pronouncements of the LTTE supremo, for instance his last year's Heroes' Day speech, in which he had a message with the same wordings, it is obvious that the threat to intensify the "struggle for national liberation" is only rhetoric.

Understandably, Prabha also needs to keep the spirits up of his followers, of course, those living in the Wanni would not like to hear a war cry from the Tiger supremo, but his cash cows, long settled in greener pastures of the west want to hear something decisive in the annual address of the LTTE Leader.

In a frank assessment the world has changed a lot since Prabha's outfit joined or, as he suggested, has forced to take part in peace negotiations.

No longer is the anti-state militancy viewed with heroism. And the noose is gradually being tightened on LTTE's front organisations;not only the LTTE, which is already banned in countries ranging from the United States to India, but also the LTTE front organisations are facing an increased risk of being outlawed.

Though Prabhakaran wishes, this is not the ideal time for the LTTE to resume war with "the solidarity of our people," i.e mainly the expatriate Tamils. If Prabhakaran's speech amounted to a war cry, it was the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission Chief, Hagrup Haukland who should be most worried. Haukland on Thursday met the LTTE political chief S.P. Thamilselvan.

On Wednesday, he travelled to Jaffna by an Air Force helicopter and met the security forces commanders there as well as the LTTE political chief in Jaffna, Ilamparithy - who has now shifted to Pallai after a spree of attacks on the LTTE political cadres.

Haukland on Thursday travelled to Kilinochchi by road to meet the LTTE political commissar, S.P.Thamilselvan.

His visit came just a few days after Prabha's Heroes' Day speech.

Talking on his meeting with the Tiger political chief, Haukland told the Sunday Observer that contrary to media "pronouncements that the Tiger chief had given an ultimatum, he had not done so and Thamilselvan in his meeting stressed that Prabha's speech was not a declaration of war.

Indeed, the SLMM chief has to be on alert, should the Tigers plan to abrogate the Ceasefire Agreement; any party to the CFA could withdraw from the agreement by announcing the decision a fortnight ahead.

LTTE ready to give time

But, Haukland said that his meeting with Thamiselvan was held in a "relaxed" atmosphere and indeed the LTTE was ready to give time to the government to come out with proposals to resume peace talks.

" They (LTTE) understand that the new President and the government need some time to settle down before they embark on the peace process... and they are willing to give time to the government to come up with proposals to resume peace talks," Haukland told the Sunday Observer.

Referring to the delayed talks on the ceasefire review, The SLMM chief sounded optimistic.

The talks on the ceasefire review have been deadlocked due to a dispute over the venue of the meeting.

Haukland optimistic

The Government wanted the talks to be held in the government controlled areas, where as the Tigers insisted it be held either in Kilinochchi or abroad, citing security reasons as the cause for its refusal to meet the government in Colombo or the Katunayake International Airport, which was suggested by the Norwegians as a venue for talks.

But, Haukland told the Sunday Observer that, "I am optimistic that they will find a solution ( to the dispute over the venue)".

He said the LTTE political wing leader told him that the LTTE wanted progress in the ground situation and also the improvement on the civilian lives in the North-East through a concerted reconstruction program in the North-East.

One salient point in the Tiger supremo's speech was that he described President Mahinda Rajapakse as a "realist committed to pragmatic politics," even though "distance between him and us (on solution to the Tamil National Question) is vast".

Prabhakaran asked the President to come out with proposals to solve the National Question and offered to wait for sometime till he works out his proposals.

Contrary to popular misconception, all these augur, a new beginning for the peace process.

This is time for the President to take the opportunity for the revival of the peace process on a pragmatic approach, which needs a compromise with his coalition partners the JVP and the JHU.

If the President could strike a consensus on the peace front with his coalition partners, given the sheer strength of his coalition, understandably, he is at ease to promote his solution in the south. This is an advantage none of predecessors had when they negotiated peace with the Tigers.

Last week, when he met the Colombo based diplomatic community, the President himself renewed his invitation for the LTTE to return to the negotiation table.

The President has also promised that the reconstruction and development in the North- East would be accorded the priority parallel to peace negotiations. He is also expected to meet Southern political parties in the coming weeks to consult their views on the solution to the ethnic conflict. busy days

These are, indeed busy days as far as the planning of the future peace process in concerned.

Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera this week visited New Delhi to brief the Indian political establishment on the government's new peace initiative as well as to discuss a few bilateral trade agreements.

A joint communique by the Governments of India and Sri Lanka on Minister Samaraweera's visit stated that he " apprised the Indian side of the policy the Government of President Mahinda Rajapakse seeks to follow with regard to the peace process in Sri Lanka".

The joint statement also said that Minister Samaraweera " emphasised the continued commitment of the government to the maintenance of the Ceasefire and the desire for a review of its operations, so that implementation of the agreement can be made more effective".

Minister Samaraweera has also briefed the approach the Rajapakse Administration would adopt towards arriving at a broad Southern consensus.

Indian stance

The most salient point in the Indian stance on Sri Lanka's ethnic question, a position which remained unchanged for nearly a decade which has been reiterated in the joint statement is that," India believes that an enduring solution can only emerge essentially through internal political process".

India had been following a hands off approach on the Sri Lankan peace process and it seems it wishes to continue to do so, though going by the pronouncements of the Rajapakse Administration, it is possible to see a greater Indian involvement in the peace front.

One last point which spells out the Indian position on the nature of the solution to the National Question is that, "India supports the process of seeking a negotiated settlement acceptable to all sections of Sri Lankan society within the framework of a united Sri Lanka, and consistent with democracy,pluralism and respect for human rights".

India has spelled out that it wished to see a solution within a United Sri Lanka, that means within a federal structure.

India has not shifted its position on the solution to the ethnic question in Sri Lanka, even though successive governments in Colombo have done so.

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