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H. L. D. Mahindapala

The weather in and around Chateau de Bossey where the Government and the LTTE met to hold talks dropped to sub-zero levels. But the delegates would not have felt the cold because the temperature of the room in which both parties battled to thrash out a final agreement was rising to solar heights.

In the end both sides emerged to compliment each other in public and thank each other for the cooperations and the spirit in which they conducted their affairs. Erik Solheim - call him devil or angel - summed it up neatly when he said that the agreement was "above expectations".

For once, I agree with Solheim. Earlier the media covering the talks were very pessimistic. With informed leaks circulating about the imminent collapse of talks hardly anyone expected this agreement to reach the heights of expectations. When the journalists, rigged up in the warm clothing, were kicking their heels waiting for hours for the delegates to front up before the international media, hearts sank again on the premise that last minutes snags had sunk the ship of peace launched in Geneva.

But when Solheim took the speaker and announced that both parties had agreed to meet again in Geneva on April 19-22 there was a sigh of relief. It meant that the government team had averted the most dreaded prospect of war raising its ugly head. This is a plus for Solheim who sat in between making a desperate bid to save his ship of peace from sinking in the adjacent Lake Leman.

The original fear that the Government and the LTTE holding extreme positions will not be able to arrive at a compromise was dispelled when Erik Solheim announced that:

1. The LTTE will not commit acts of violence against Sri Lanka Government's military and Police;

2. The GOSL will take all necessary measures in accordance with the Ceasefire Agreement to ensure that no armed group or person other than Government security forces will carry arms or conduct armed operations;

3. Both parties are committed to respecting and upholding the Ceasefire Agreement;

4. Both parties reconfirmed their commitment to fully cooperate with and respect the rulings of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM).

5. Both parties discussed all issues concerning the welfare of children in the North East, including the recruitment of children; and.

6. Both parties will attend the next round of talks in Geneva on 19-21 April 2006.

Viewed from any angle this is a positive document for the de-escalation of violence and, hopefully, to lay the ground rules for stabilising peace. Predictably the opposition will go on the offensive not because it lacks space to build on it to regain peace, if properly implemented, but mainly because of the political damage to Ranil Wickremesinghe's platform.

Ranil Wickremesinghe's cry from roof tops now is that President Mahinda Rajapakse is carrying out his policies in the peace process. Whoever advises him to make such a statement has not thought through the implications of such a claim. The logic of his argument undermines his defence or attack, whichever way you want to take it. If President Rajapakse is following his policies then it is Wickremesinghe's moral, political and constitutional duty to back him all the way without any reservations. Wickremesinghe is not saying that Rajapakse's policies are wrong. He is merely saying that President Rajapakse is following his polices. Well, if he wants to take the credit for that he must also go along with the president and agree fully to implement the Rajapakse political program without conditions or reservations.

Of course, in a kind of wishy-washy way, he offers his "cooperation" provided President Rajapakse desists from giving portfolios to his members. Here again Wickremesinghe reveals his inability (1) to be a guiding light to his own members who are deserting him in droves and (2) to adhere to his own declared politics and principles which could enhance his respectability and crediblity. Put simply, he has put his security, his position over and above that of the nation. What is worse, he has placed his self-centred interests above his own declared policies as enshrined in the Ceasefire Agreement. His malaise has spread deep into the UNP. The problem with the UNP, as it stands now, is that it lacks credible "Attanayakes". Right now it is over-loaded with "Nattanayakes".

Wickremesinghe's strategy from now on will be to focus on the following line in the Geneva statement: "GOSL will take all necessary measures in accordance with the Ceasefire Agreement to ensure that no armed group or person other than Government security forces will carry arms or conduct armed operations." This, they will argue, is a surrender to the LTTE because the Government has agreed in this to take on the Karuna group on behalf of the LTTE.

This line relates directly to the controversial Clause 1.8 of Wickremesinghe's CFA which states: "Tamil paramilitary groups shall be disarmed by the GOSL by D-day + 30 at the latest." The most significant point to note is that the operative word "paramilitary" has been deliberately omitted from the latest Geneva document.

In other words, Mahinda Rajapakse is not recognising any entity called "paramilitaries" which was introduced by the LTTE into the political vocabulary with the consent and approval of Wickremesinghe.

At the press conference Anton Balasingham defined "paramilitaries" as "auxiliary forces of the government". Significantly, in omitting the world "paramilitaries" the government has scored a victory over the LTTE because it does not recognise Karuna group either as a force in existence, or as a covert extension of the Security Forces.

Secondly, in this critical line the LTTE concedes that the state alone has the right to carry arms. Nit-picking legalism will contend that the phrase "in accordance with the Ceasefire Agreement" is a concession to the LTTE and its intentions to force the government to deal with the Karuna group.

The government rightfully responded arguing that it will deal with all armed groups in accordance with its sovereign rights to act within the framework of rule of law.

Whatever the spin the LTTE-Wickremesinghe camp wants to give it, it is clear that Anton Balasingham has once again let down his leader Prabhakaran by openly admitting that there are no "paramilitaries" (read Karuna Group). How Prabhakaran is going to react to this is not known yet. But he is most unlikely to forgive Balasingham for denying the existence of his hated and committed enemy. The Geneva document has erased not only Prabhakaran's most used and politically charged term "paramilitary" which was there in the Ceasefire Agreement but turned Karuna into a non-person. The LTTE cannot raise the issues of "paramilitaries" any more for the simple reason that it does not exist anymore.

How long Balasingham will last after this is irrelevant. This is his second big blunder. The first was when the CFA was sold as a document in which Balasingham agreed to a federal structure that recognises the sovereignty of the Sri Lankan government. When Prabhakaran realised his chief negotiator's blunder and hit the ceiling Balasingham quickly retracted placing Wickremesinghe and his chief negotiator, G. L. Peiris, up the gum tree.

But Balasingham cannot go back on this blunder because it is in black and white. Karuna is, perhaps, the most sensitive issue with Prabhakaran right now. Prabhakaran is not likely to accommodate Balasingham on this betrayal.

The rift between Thamilselvam and Balasingham on the brothel issue in Thailand will pale into insignificance if this issue blows up. However, it will not likely to shorten the political life of Balasingham as he is still the only man they have to front up in Geneva for the next round.

The skill of the government team is in denying the existence of "paramilitaries" and asserting its role as guarding and protector of rule of law. The subtle sub-text is also that the government can now rest all its operations only on the basis of the rule of law which must prevail over all other claims. Rohitha Bogallagama, the chief spokesperson, agrees that the place given to the rule of law is a positive development that can lead to the normalization of conditions in Sri Lanka.

One of the most relevant issues to the success of Geneva is the role of the SLMM. What was written down in Geneva has to be implemented to make the peace process meaningful. In answer to a question Balasingham assured that the LTTE will open its doors to the SLMM to freely investigate complaints within its areas.

This too may lead Balasingham into trouble. In the past, it has been the constant obstruction of investigations and refusal to give easy access to SLMM and other human rights organisations that has given the freedom for Prabhakaran to act with impunity in violating humanitarian laws and the CFA. If the SLMM also continues to play its role as Pontius Pilate then the war-weary people will have to kiss good-bye to peace once again.

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