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The rise of stocks -- and a party’s free fall  

The stock market registered an upturn on Friday, (see our page 1 lead) which confounded the critics of the Rajapakse administration who said that the peace dividend was oh-so-slow in coming.

This is not to be premature in our assessment, but it appears that in spite of the fondest wishes of the pessimists —- there is a upturn in the market, a cause of optimism for most of Mahinda Rajapakse’s detractors, except the incurables from a certain section of the media.

It’s not easy for the Colombo business elite to buy into the kind of Rajapakse-economics. This was evident when the President said that the price for maintaining a TV channel will have to be increased by 300 per cent, and that there could be no import of cigarettes.

When he said that prime television time should not be used to telecast the draw on sweep-tickets, some were almost catatonic in their protest.

Sure, this was middle of the road economics at least to some extent in the grain — but it was greeted as if the President had violated one of the cardinal rules of business.

But the real movers and shakers of business —- the real brains behind commerce - - - - were not buying any such pessimistic judgment.

Come Friday, the day after the President talked of his revenue raising ideas, the stock markets performed. They looked positively bullish.

That may not necessarily have the President partying though, because when asked if he expected victory at local government elections he would only allow that ‘’we should all wait and see.’’

He said that he will take a different tack here —- unlike at the Presidential elections where he was sure he would win, and said so. That was because he was running.

But he wasn’t being wishy-washy about his prospects — not with a bullish stock market. When one Editor of a newspaper said jovially that ‘we should start attacking you from today’, he smiled his best mustachioed smile, and said ‘’now its difficult to unseat me even if you do attack.’’’

Translation —- you should have prevented me form getting to this seat in the first place if you had any designs on getting somebody else to occupy this place.

Hands- on is the name of the game though. The Tissa Devendra commission recommendations were being challenged by unions, which meant that there were some strikes. Public servants wanted the 65 per cent wage increase that accrued to the crime de la crime of the public service to accrue to them as well.

This was a tall order for a President, who understandably was speaking of revenue raising measures.

His detractors who said that he will have a hard time delivering on his promises for good economic tidings for all comers, were saying ‘’we told you so.’’

Rajapakse is planning to deliver. The joke is that if he can succeed being ‘’ all things to all men ‘’ - - he can deliver all kinds of economic benefits to all kinds of demanding campaigners, including striking unionists.

Time will tell if Rajapakse can deliver and keep the economy ticking - - it’s not easy giving a final verdict after barely four months in office

Strategically however, the President sees that if he attacks on all fronts, he can lose on some but will not lose on all. He can, for example, deliver on a excellent public service, and that will assuage public expectations even if he does not exactly deliver on things such as salaries.

So, he got himself ready to make a journey to the office of the Registrar of Motor Vehicles. There, he saw the files, and was so incredulous he blurted out ‘’what are all these bundles waiting here for..’’

Good question , which has been asked by the thousand of people who have lost themselves in the morass of the RMV bureaucracy previously. The President said that he will get these Aegean stables cleaned up.

But a bigger headache was public accountability. The appointments to the constitutional councils - - could they be carried out by sway of parliamentary select committee consultations.

At the apex of the system of accountability through independent autonomous bodies, is the Constitutional Council. If the appointments to this apex structure could be made via a system of consensus, it was argued by the president that maybe the mechanism of the Constitutional Commissions could be made workable.

Its figured out by presidential advisors, perhaps, that public accountability will ensure good governance - -and via good governance would come fiscal responsibility which will strengthened the public services. The result will eventually be streamlined public institutions, which will be profit-making rather than loss-making. That in turn will result in wage increases in the public sector.

Sounds a utopian dream, but it is a strategy that seems at the moment well worth the candlepower that’s needed to put it in place. The Rajapakse Presidency has the quality of an experiment anyway - - and so far, the alchemy in the test tube seems to be producing some pleasant formulations. That’s the mood at least in the President’s inner circle.

UNPers go hammer and tongs!

UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe was expected to arrive in the country in the early hours of yesterday following his visit to Norway. He was expected to jump-start the UNP campaign in the local government polls scheduled for March 30. The entire party machinery was in shambles by Friday with different groups within the party going their own way. This time the UNP enters the fray without momentum due to the crisis facing their list in the Colombo Municipal Council (CMC). It is like the 'body' asked to fight without the 'head' as the CMC was known to be the 'heart' of the party for over fifty years. The CMC issue now is being argued before court. A settlement seems remote before March 30.

UNP Mayoral candidate in Colombo, Sirisena Cooray is being sidelined by party seniors. His campaign is carried out by Messrs: Milinda Moragoda and Mohamed Maharoof who re-introduced him to UNP politics. Another section led by Ravi Karunanayake and Rajitha Senaratne opposed to Moragoda and Maharoof have distanced themselves from the campaign. Meanwhile, T. M. Sanghadasa whose name was reportedly deleted by aides of Moragoda and Maharoof in the nomination list, backs Ravi and Rajitha. The latest entry to battle, Moragoda and Maharoof combine is S. B. Dissanayake. With the entry of SB, the combine now has to  battle with a formidable foe within the UNP to support Cooray.

Latest investigations into the CMC nomination controversy reveals that Moragoda's aides have been involved in the 'operation' by the Maharoof faction without the knowledge of Moragoda. Close confidantes of Moragoda have now advised him to distance himself from Maharoof to avoid controversies of that nature in the future. The controversy has now pushed away Moragoda from his leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. The UNP leader has pledged that he would take action against the 'culprits' who tampered with the nomination list. Moragoda was the most trusted confidante of Wickremesinghe  till the CMC crisis began. Wickremesinghe has gradually distanced himself from Moragoda and this was quite visible with Wickremesinghe doing a solo trip to Norway last week.

Earlier, Wickremesinghe sought Moragoda's cooperation to make arrangements for his foreign visits. He even requested him to accompany him. This time, the UNP leader himself made arrangements with the Norwegian Embassy in Colombo and  kept Moragoda in the dark.

The differences in the UNP over the contest in the CMC have now given the edge to UPFA candidate, Vasudeva Nanayakkara. Cooray looks isolated with party seniors distancing  themselves in the CMC campaign. Vasudeva is seen at every doorstep in the slum and shanty areas of Colombo. People in Colombo appear to have placed their faith in the leftist leader Vasudeva, known as "Mr. Clean" in left politics for nearly five decades. Colombo was on fire in 1983 during Cooray's tenure as Mayor and allegations were levelled at him for failing to maintain law and order as the first citizen of the city.

The UNP vote bank in Colombo Municipal limits are now in groups. There is no direct support flowing towards Sirisena Cooray's camp with groups working towards different agendas.

Those opposed to Moragoda-Maharoof combine are campaigning for Azath Sally, a bitter critic of Maharoof. Another group from the Muslims led by M. H. Mohamed are solidly behind Omar Kamil, a former Mayor. The Colombo Central vote base of Maharoof is now in a poor state. The Tamil vote has been grabbed by Mano Ganeshan's Western People Front. The Muslim vote is divided between Azath Sally and Omar Kamil. A few Muslim's votes are still with Maharoof. The Sinhala vote is divided with the factions opposed to Maharoof carrying out a campaign not to vote for Cooray.

S. B. Dissanayake has now begun to flex his muscles within the party. He has openly challenged the decision to have Renuka Herath in Parliament. It was reported that SB has sent a letter to Wickremesinghe claiming it was wrong for the party to have nominated the appointment of Herath in place of him. SB is at present touring the country to gather crowds. It looks more a 'personal' campaign than an election campaign for candidates. Though Wickremesinghe permitted him to speak at meetings, SB continues to hold rallies and processions for personal glory.

In the absence of Ranil, SB has consolidated himself within the party to offer resistance if Wickremesinghe failed to comply with certain recommendations made by SB in the reported letter to Ranil. It is learnt that SB has recommended drastic changes in the party hierarchy with special emphasis on the post of Treasurer. UNP funds obtained from abroad during the presidential elections have not been released, party insiders alleged. A number of telephones and fax machines have been disconnected for non-payment of bills.

After complaints made by party Chairman, Malik Samarawickrema who had been paying most of the bills at his personal expense, the funds obtained from abroad during the November elections have now begun to flow, an insider at "Siri Kotha" said. The faction led by Mahinda Wijesekere in the UNP strongly back SB Dissanayake to be a deputy leader in the coming months.

They claim that the party should have two deputy leaders. The Wijesekere faction claims that SB should be made a deputy leader in addition to being the national organiser. 

The Karu Jayasuriya faction supported by Naveen Dissanayake opposes the move to have SB as deputy leader on par with Jayasuriya. They are of the opinion that the party should have only one deputy leader. But pressure mounted by SB supporters look strong.

In the coming days, UNP clashes may occur in the open as many factions are trying to consolidate themselves within the party.  Concentration and focus on the forthcoming elections seem to be lost within the rank and file of the party. Meanwhile, the UPFA government led by President Mahinda Rajapakse appear to be in full gear to face the local government elections.

Despite contesting without the JVP the SLFP and other coalition partners have already begun the house-to-house campaign. Pocket meetings and cluster group meetings are already on the way with senior  UPFA politicians leading the campaign at village, electorate and district level.

This unified process of the UPFA has given President Rajapakse much time to concentrate on the administration of the country and the peace process.The government's priority is the peace process. The process has been moving in the right direction since the Geneva talks.

The President summoned two meetings of the All Party Conference both prior to and after the talks. All parties present expressed their support to continue the talks in April. The main opposition UNP too issued a statement hailing the peace initiatives extending their fullest support to the President to make it a success.

 The UNP is just left with ten days before it should decide which way to go. Their internal rifts need much more time than that for rectification.

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