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Sunday Observations: The Political Column

The split, it turned out to be an April fool's joke one day before April fool's day. The votes were in on Friday morning, and the envisaged grand split of the vote between the UPFA - the President's party - - and the JVP never materialized.

We had Ranil Wickremesighe dropping by at the Speaker's party for SAARC Speakers on Friday night, looking pretty relaxed, as if he had not lost anything except perhaps his regular attire. '

He wore a particularly vogue looking shirt to the dinner. Wickremesinghe promised to look into some matters for Indian High Commissioner Rao. No need to panic here just regular matters.

We do not subscribe to the notion at all being advanced by some political analysts that Wickremesinghe was invited to tour India because president Rajapakse was touring Pakistan.

Wickremesinghe has always been India's friend, but so has Rajapakse. Presidents may come and Presidents may go but there is no doubt that Indo Sri lankan relations have never been at a high point as they are now. India is a friend, and does not manoeuver in the away a jealous lover does.

Decisive landslide victory

Therefore, no truth whatsoever, we say, to the assertion made in some local forums that Wickremesighe got his invite because Rajapakse took off to Pakistan. Before he emplaned though, President Rajapakse had more than just international diplomacy on his mind.

His party had won a decisive landslide victory at the Punchi Chandaya the mini poll. Winners and losers of a hard fought election had emerged. The UPFA is the clear winner and there are two losers.

The main opposition UNP is the loser in the main battle. The UPFA's one time junior partner Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna is a loser of sorts, having failed to make any impression contrary to pre(c)election hype. But it's a loser of a different variety as the JVP was on an experimental learning curve.

The JVP won the Tissamaharama Pradeshiya Sabha which was under its control since 2002. The split theory did not work, barring Homagama, Kesbawa and Dehiwala-Mt Laviniya, where the UNP won due to the alliance vote going two ways. However, having gone it alone, the red comrades managed to increase their lot to 366 councilors from 210 councilors in 2002.

Conciliatory approach

The JVP gained a ten per cent increase of total votes. That is not an entirely bad showing for a party which joined the mainstream politics only a decade ago The punchi-chanda mandate had to now read as an acceptance of President Rajapske's peace effort.. So if the election is viewed as a referendum on the peace process, the Southern electorate has voted for a more conciliatory approach. No More instant jingoism for the south of the country.

The sweeping victory of the UPFA would give President Mahinda Rajapakse a greater space to manoeuver in the peace process . At the time of going to press the UPFA had secured 222 local bodies in contrast to the UNPs 32.

This was a disaster for the UNP, because the UPFA's number is almost seven times that of the UNP! The UNP has suffered the fourteenth successive electoral defeat under the stewardship of Ranil Wickremesinghe, by the way, notwithstanding any sweet nothings muttered at Speakers house on Friday. (With his wife we mean.) This defeat has mounted tremendous pressure on Wickremesinghe and his leadership now hangs in the balance, we'd have to say, but what's new - he always takes it in his defeatist stride?/ In the above context, its pertinent to ask what President Rajapakse poised to do now??

Will he declare the parliament dissolved soon? Will he or won't he? He gave some indication at a social function before elections, saying he does not want a national government - but a strong opposition. The results of the election clearly proved that it was difficult for a third force to emerge in the current political scenario of this country.

The JVP's performance was well below par but that's another story. The UNP is at sixes and sevens, but has nobody but itself to blame for it. The UNP lost Municipal Councils which they controlled for many years. At the last local government election, the UNP swept the board.

It almost turned table completely after four years. The UNP hopes in the Colombo Municipal Council too are shattered with rejection of the nomination list with party men Mohamed Maharoof and Milinda Moragoda being in the doghouse for list tampering. The defeat at this election has given new life to the CMC issue.

Tension within party

The UNP leader is scheduled to take off to India today to meet Indian leaders. He is to be accompanied by Milinda Moragoda. This move has created tension within the party. The factions opposed to the Moragoda-Maharoof combine has demanded that stern action be taken against the duo over the CMC crisis.

The two member committee that probed the issue has reportedly submitted the report to Wickremesinghe. The UNP leader says he would release it after the court case is concluded.

The matter was concluded in the Court of Appeal with the application being rejected. But, Mayoral aspirant Sirisena Cooray has appealed to the Supreme Court with the backing of Maharoof. With the issue pending in court, Wickremesinghe decided to embark to India in the company of Moragoda. This move has raised eyebrows in the party. As there was growing dissension within the rank and file, Wickremesinghe, a fortnight ago decided to drop Moragoda when he visited Norway.

But, now he has decided to take him to India. Can he never drop him, no mater what?/ Party insiders say that the 'new alignment' between the two may result in the report of the two committee being swept right under the carpet.

In the meantime, Maharoof had reportedly spoken to CMC Councillor, T. M. Sanghadasa on March 24 over the telephone to make amends over 'tippexing' the latter's name from the nomination list. Sanghadasa told the Sunday Observer that Maharoof had dropped a cheque for Rs. 500,000 as a 'gift' requesting him to stop attacking him (Maharoof) and Moragoda.

Sanghadasa added that Maharoof had assured him that Moragoda and J. K. Fernando (former Development Lotteries Board -Chairman and Proprietor, Care Kleen Ltd.) would offer Sanghadasa ten times more than his gift to compromise nd not spill any more beans.

Sanghadasa said that his political future had been destroyed by Maharoof and claimed that the 'gift' is tantamount to a bribe. "I will complain to the Bribery Commission and produce the cheque", he stressed.

The move by Wickremesinghe to take Moragoda to India and Maharoof's move to befriend Sanghadasa is viewed by UNP seniors as a step towards supressing action against Maharoof and Moragoda. But, the humiliating defeat at Thursday's local election now has given fresh ammunition to seniors demand the ouster of Wickremesinghe.

Change in leadership

They feel that if President Mahinda Rajapakse decides on an early parliamentary election, the UNP would suffer a heavy defeat. Therefore, they are of the view that a change in the leadership has now become absolutely necessary to reorganise the party.

In the move to reorganise the party under a new leader, there are two camps within the UNP. One group backs Karu Jayasuriya to succeed Wickremesinghe while the other backs S. B. Dissanayake. The Jayasuriya group is backed by seniors such as Gamini Lokuge and Gamini Jayawickreme Perera while Mahinda Wijesekere spearheads the group that backs Dissanayake.

However, Dissanayake after being released from jail promised to actively campaign for a UNP victory. But he abandoned the campaign at the eleventh hour to proceed to Australia with his wife Tamara to be in the company of his sons studying over there. Dissanayake's sudden decision to fly overseas put the UNP campaign on the reverse gear.

No place for Ranil Wickremesinghe

Meanwhile, UNP Deputy General Secretary, Tissa Attanayake has hinted that there would be major changes in the leadership structure in the near future. There are moves within the party to have Wickremesinghe as the Opposition Leader with the leadership being offered to Karu Jayasuriya. In that event, S.B. Dissanayake is likely to be made the Deputy Leader in addition to his present status as National Organizer.

Contrary to these proposals, another set of proposals have emerged from Maharoof's camp to have Moragoda also as a deputy with Sirisena Cooray being given the role of National Organiser. A chart drawn up by the Maharoof factor to this effect outlining the leadership structure of the party has now got into the hands of many seniors.

That chart has no place for Ranil Wickremesinghe. According to that chart, the new leader would be Karu Jayasuriya, with Milinda Moragoda (Deputy Leader), Sirisena Cooray (National Organiser) and Lakshman Yapa Abeywardene as General Secretary.

Party seniors say that this leadership floor plan of the Maharoof faction has being designed immediately after last presidential elections. Following the defeat at the hands of President Mahinda Rajapakse, Wickremesinghe met his family members and informed them of his idea to quit politics and proceed to the United Kingdom with his wife Maithree.

Tremendous pressure

On the afternoon the results were announced, Wickremesinghe also had a meeting with Moragoda at his Charles Drive residence to spell out his plan to quit politics and take wing to UK. But Moragoda opposed that move and requested Wickremesinghe to stay on as the UNP leader. The same evening Moragoda was reported to have met Karu Jayasuriya where the exit of Wickremesinghe from politics had been discussed.

Party insiders say that the Mahroof chart had been designed following this meeting. When Wickremesinghe returns from New Delhi he is likely to face tremendous pressure from the rank and file as a result of the fourteenth defeat under his leadership. S.B. Dissanayake is also expected to return this week. The Ravi-Rajitha faction is prepared to take on the Moragoda-Maharoof combine over the CMC set back.

They say the rejection of the CMC list was a bad omen for the party. Party stalwart, M. H. Mohamed has other plans to bring Thilanga Sumathipala into the Colombo Central Course to gallop and beat Maharoof in the future. Mohamed also plans to have Sumathipala as an aspirant on the CMC Independent list in case the UNP loses the case in the Supreme Court.

Mohamed says that Cooray cannot be made the Mayor because the list has been rejected. The Independent list belongs to the SLMC. While the UNP keep hopes on that list, the SLMC is in discussion with the UPFA of future moves. If the SLMC goes with the UPFA, the UNP will be left in the lurch. The question is whether Wickremesinghe has the guts or the ability to take Moragoda and Maharoof to task over the CMC issue.

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