LTTE has big plans on soft targets

War and Peace The Defence Diary by Ranga Jayasuriya

The claymore attacks on the passenger bus in Kebithigollewa did not come unexpected. The writing was on the wall for some time that the Tigers were planing for a big show.

Certain pronouncements by the LTTE last week were indicative that the Tigers were intensifying attacks. Last week, the so-called LTTE front, the Pongiyelum Makkal Padai, known as people's force warned to intensify attacks against security forces in the aftermath of the completion of the advanced level examinations in the North.

The Makkal Padai is trained and armed by the LTTE to function as a part of LTTE's civil militia in collusion with the undercover LTTE cadres in the government controlled area. According to intelligence sources, over 2000 civilians from the Jaffna peninsula had been trained by the Tigers in basic warfare during the ceasefire. They are responsible for the hit and run attacks on the security forces and claymore mine explosions.

Added to the warning by the Makkal Padai, LTTE peace delegation which aborted talks with the Sri Lankan government hinted a re-examination of its commitment to the ceasefire agreement - of course, very little Tigers had committed to the CFA from the very outset.

LTTE political commissar S.P.Thamilselvan was on record saying Tiger supremo, Prabhakaran was disappointed with the Rajapaksa Administration and would decide on its new course of action once Thamilselvan and company returns to the Wanni. Furthermore, as we reported last week, sea Tiger chief Soosai in Mullaitivu outlined Prabha's strategy to a group of civilians trained as LTTE's auxiliary force.

Soosai said, "before the enemy starts the war against us, we must dismantle his positions and redeem our land. This is the best course of action". "...Our Leader will never say anything in words. He makes his intentions known through his actions.

All these developments were indicative of a shift in the LTTE strategy from a low scale war to a greater confrontation.

As for the tragedy in Kebithigollewa, the security of remote border villages in the North Central and Eastern province was also a cause for concern. Tigers have routinely targeted civilians during the past six months, reminiscent to their practice before the ceasefire.

Security precautions

Indeed, security precautions were in place in the border villages.

It is suspected that Tiger cadres planted the two claymore mines after the road patrol which was on the morning road clearing mission passed the place.

However, the claymore blast on the passenger bus, is the gravest LTTE attack against a civilian target for the last ten years, since the Dehiwala train bombing in 1996, turned out to be a miscalculation on the part of the LTTE. International condemnation of the attack would further isolate the LTTE internationally, but, going by the conduct of the the LTTE, it seems the Tigers are no longer bothered by international opinion, especially after the EU ban on the movement.

The claymore mine attack could also be a risky gamble by the LTTE to stir up a communal backlash in the island. It risked its already diminishing reputation to target the Sri Lankan government, but failed miserably this time, receiving a big blow on the movement. In the words of UN Commissioner of Human Rights, Louise Arbour," this attack is much more than a ceasefire violation, it is a breach of the most fundamental tenets of humanity."

But, in the immediate aftermath of the tragedy, the Tigers would have succeeded had it not been for the timely police intervention. Mobs were seen armed with knives and clubs in Abeipura and were dispersed by the police. Trincomalee town, where Sinhalese mobs went on the rampage after the bombing of the vegetable market on New year's eve was deserted as news of the Kebithigollewa blast reached the port city, fearing the repetition of a communal backlash.

Fortunately, that didn't happen and security forces and police were instructed to act decisively to avoid any communal clashes.

The government response to the claymore attack was a "coordinated, limited strikes" to deter further attacks by the Tigers, as described by the government's spokesman Minister Keheliya Rambukwella. 'Deterrent measure'

The government has been extra-cautious in describing the attack, calling it a 'deterrent measure" rather than a retaliation.

Soon after the claymore attack, the Defence Ministry gave the green light to a three pronged strike on LTTE targets. Artillery and multi- barrel rocket fire were directed from Monkey Bridge, China Bay and the Kattaparichchan security forces camp at the LTTE positions in Sampur, Rahalkuli and LTTE controlled parts of Mutur. A huge pile of smoke was noticed from Rahalkuli uncleared areas where the LTTE is believed to have a main camp.

Navy gunboats fired on LTTE positions in Sampur as well as LTTE controlled parts of Mutur. Israel built Kafir fighter jets in the afternoon dropped bombs on Tharavikulam, where a large LTTE camp is located. according to military sources, a training camp and an administrative headquarters in Tharavikulam had been targeted. The training camp was destroyed. The administrative headquarters is partially destroyed.

LTTE locations bombed

On Thursday Kafir fighter jets also bombed LTTE locations in Chalai, where the main sea going facilities of the sea Tigers are located, Pudikudurippu, which is a "High Security Zone' of the LTTE and Iranamadu, where the LTTE airstrip is located.

On Thursday night, the Air Force sent an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UMAV) to monitor the impact on the air strikes. The aerial pictures taken by the Unmanned aerial vehicle have shown a huge crater in the middle of the LTTE runway in Iranamadu.

The aerial pictures have also suggested heavy damage to the Chalai sea Tiger bases. On Friday, Kafir fighter jets carried out another sorties on Iranamadu and another on Chalai. Results on that strike are however, not available.

The pro-LTTE Tamilnet website,however, reported that the Air Force had targeted a tsunami refugee camp in Mullaithivu and that people had been evacuated before the air attack. Meanwhile, on Thursday night, intelligence reports warned that the LTTE was trying to penetrate towards Mandathivu Islands from the Punaryn side.

Forces were placed on high operational alert. However, no LTTE movement was noticed. The Tigers have admitted "a lot of casualties" due to the coordinated strikes. According to intelligence sources, the LTTE has barred civilians travelling in and out from Pudukudirippu and Mullaitivu.

Air strikes

One important point as for the air strikes is that its impact can be limited, but these can be effective in sending a message to the Tigers that the government would not cow down to terrorism. Certain intelligence sources have reported around 30 LTTE cadres had been killed in the aerial strikes on the sea Tiger bases . These figures, however, cannot be verified.

Soon after the Kebithigollewa blast, the LTTE peace secretariat denied any LTTE involvement and went on to charge that the security forces were behind the blast.

"The attack in Kebithigollewa timed to occur immediately after the arrival of the LTTE delegation from Europe is a reprehensible act of murder with the aim of blaming the LTTE for the act," the LTTE peace secretariat said in a statement.

But, only a few seem to have bought the LTTE version of the event.

Meanwhile, the sea Tigers yesterday morning made an abortive attempt to overrun the Navy sub detachment in Pesalai, Mannar.

Twelve LTTE dinghies were intercepted in the seas off Pesalai.

SBS (Special Boat Squadron) commandoes fought back, destroying eight boats, and three sea Tiger boats were partially damaged.

Six sailors died in the confrontation. Twenty-five sea Tigers were believed to have been killed in the Navy retaliation, according to the Navy.

This attack on the Naval sub detachment in Pesalai could be viewed as a retaliation for the bombardment of sea Tiger positions in Sampur and LTTE controlled parts of Mutur by the Navy gunboat. What took the sea Tiger by surprise was the deployment of SBS commandoes, the Sri Lankan equivalent to the American Seals.

Despite the two days of coordinated attacks by the security forces on the LTTE targets, the LTTE has not yet made its position known. If the Tigers choose to retaliate, it would, most likely, be the beginning of the fourth Eelam war.