Fools rush in where angels fear to tread

Mawilaru: Mistake or mendacity?

by Kumar David

The LTTE must be condemned, notwithstanding the reasons that it offers, for closing the sluice gates at Mawilaru and causing great distress and crop losses among thousands of farming families living downstream. Let me say this up front to silence the baying pack that sees a Tiger under every Tamil bed; but having said this let it also be said that the government has mishandled the issue and landed itself in a serious cock-up, or worse. And what could be worse; becoming hostage to warmongers and the aforesaid chauvinist pack.

Other agendas

Negotiations were not given a real chance; yes getting the water to flow again was imperative, yes the government pressured the LTTE for a few days, yes it made approaches through Norway, but it was in a mighty hurry to foreclose on negotiations, drop the bombs and roll out the troops. Like Israel in Lebanon the end result has been a fiasco.

The ongoing Norwegian and SLMM effort would have opened the gates, but admittedly no one can guarantee for how long, given the inscrutability of the LTTE mindset. However, to jump the gun (pun intended) and foreclose prematurely on the non-military option was asking for trouble in the form of spreading the conflict much further a field.

One does not need a doctorate in military science to fathom that once ground troops crossed over no-man's land and aerial bombardment of LTTE targets commenced there would be large scale counterattacks.

Since the LTTE counterattack was foreseeable, it must be asked: Was the objective of those who engineered military action that of eliciting precisely this response and eventually bringing about an abrogation of the cease-fire pact? It is no secret that there are parties in the UPFA as well as sections of the government and military and people in the Rajapaksa entourage who want the CFA annulled.

There is a school of thought that argues that President Rajapaksa is not a bellicose man but has been politically and militarily misled, while another view contends that the President is responsible for the confidants and commanders he selects and the advice he chooses to accept, hence he shares responsibility for the latest imbroglio. The two assertions do not contradict each other.

It is not clear which side has inflicted greater military losses on the adversary - truth is the first casualty of war, both GoSL and the LTTE habitually lie through their teeth, and the media in Sri Lanka is mistrusted by all for good reason - but it is quite clear that there have been a large number of combatant casualties on both sides.

Combatants aside, the Muslims of Muttur and the surrounding areas feel betrayed by GoSL and the LTTE has ethnic-cleansed them out of their homes and slaughtered scores as they fled. The number of Tamil refugees in the LTTE areas is also large and their plight just as miserable and the slaying of some sixty school kids (or LTTE prot‚g‚s) in aerial bombardment is deliberate criminality.

The death and suffering accumulating from this entirely avoidable disaster is huge; Muslim, Tamil and Sinhalese civilian casualties mount by the day and already run into the hundreds.

Killing of ACF personnel

What could have been the objective of killing 17 employees of a French based aid agency (ACF) engaged in humanitarian work in Muttur? No explanation makes sense other than one that dovetails the mendacious pattern outlined above.

The perpetrators calculate the government will not dare to move against the culprits, allegedly the army, since it fears resentment in the military numerous Presidential Commissions and Inquiries into alleged human rights violations by the forces have been stillborn and this instance will be no different. On the other hand, if this time, GoSL remains inert it will encounter international opprobrium. A catch-22 conundrum that is lost on no one.

The calculation seems to be deadly simple and possibly spot-on. GoSL will cover up for the forces, tension with international actors will be aggravated, and the deteriorating conditions will contribute towards getting Norway out and the CFA abrogated. We will have to wait and see how this game plan unfolds.

Madness beyond comprehension

In the meantime other killers run wild vide the Kethish Loganathan assassination; what on earth the LTTE, allegedly the likely culprit, stands to gain from this act of madness is beyond comprehension.

Humanitarian organisations, the democratic minded and the UTHR statement (Daily News, 17th August) bemoan the swelling slaughter, but all jumble their groans with concerns about the absence of a political settlement, without prioritising between the two issues.

Let me state categorically: Human rights violations by both belligerents will not abate, targeting of Tamil dissidents will not cease, nor will the Tamil people abandon the LTTE, until the Tamil national question is solved and a new ethno-democratic constitution enacted.

This is an unalterable priority cast is stone, not by this writer, but by the real world. To fail to hammer home this message, this unalterable priority of impending historical assignments, is a dereliction of responsibility.

LTTE offensive

The short-term question currently occupying centre stage is how the LTTE offensive in the Jaffna Peninsula will unfold. The next stage in the ethnic conflict is predicated on that outcome. Although SLMM Head Henricsson opines that the current 'military offensive was started by the government', clearly the initiative about whether to pursue it to a more decisive stage in Jaffna rests with the LTTE.

The battles at the time of writing depict an 'on again, off gain' modus, hence the LTTE's medium-term intentions are still obscure.

Certainly those who argued that the Tigers were hell bent on restarting the war have lost the opportunity to test their hypothesis thanks to GoSL's military haste.

It is probable that a battle for the city of Jaffna is on the cards. If the LTTE succeeds it will seek fresh negotiations from a position of advantage; if there is no decisive outcome and there is a prolonged military impasse, then both sides will be pushed to negotiate from positions of demoralised war weariness.

The indelible adage: 'There will never be a military solution to this matter', is once again proving its worth. When will they ever learn?