War and Peace: The Defence Diary by Ranga Jayasuriya

LTTE down, but not out

Navy foiled major Tiger arms smuggling attempt

Tigers could target major military assets

No doubt, the recent fighting in the North and the East had a heavy toll on the LTTE. Going by the realistic assessments of the battlefield casualties, at least 30 per cent of the LTTE fighting cadre has been "neutralised" during the recent fighting.

If we are to go by even the most generous estimates, LTTE's fighting cadre is not more than 6,000 -7,000. These figures reflect the vast number of desertions caused by the split of Eastern Tiger commander Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan alias Karuna who demobilised 4,000-5,000 strong Eastern LTTE. His split also affected the recruiting of the LTTE from the East, which was earlier, the main supplier of fighting cadre to LTTE.

During the recent fighting with the security forces, at least thousand cadres were reportedly killed. This includes the Tiger toll as a result of the attacks on the Security Forces' forward defence lines in the North and simultaneous attack on the security forces camps in Mutur, Kattaparichchan, Mahindapura, Palathopur and Selva Nagar. Equal numbers were wounded seriously which would keep them away from the battlefield for a considerable time.

The LTTE is down, but not out. In the recent history of the Northern insurgency, there have been many an occasion when the Tigers were on the run, battered by the security forces. When the security forces recaptured the Jaffna peninsula, the Tigers fled to the Wanni. And from the jungles of Wanni, they planned and executed one of the most fatalistic attacks on the security force, overrunning the Mullaitivu military camp, which had nearly 1,400 troops at the time of the attack.

In the second incident, Operation Jayasikuru, which envisaged to clear a land link to Jaffna from Colombo forced the Tigers to retreat to Mullaitivu. Troops advancing from Elephant Pass captured Kilinochchi while troops advanced from Omanthai up to Mankulam.

But within a matter of a few days, the Tigers in their Unceasing Wave, undid the gains of the troops.

The Tigers fought on two fronts, pushing troops back to Omanthai and EPS.

Air strikes

Later in the year 2000, when the LTTE was hard-hit by the air strikes and security force's counter offensive to LTTE push in to the city gates of Jaffna, the Tigers carried out a meticulously planned attack on one of the country's foremost economic assets, the Katunayake International Airport and the adjacent military airport.

Given the heavy losses of the Tigers in the recent battle, there is a greater possibility of an attack as a senior army official put it "a lucrative military or economic target".

Recent defeats have shattered the LTTE claim for the military parity between the security forces and the LTTE. The LTTE could attempt to redefine the military disparity caused by the recent setbacks in the battlefield.

With Velupillai Prabhakaran set to make his annual address in two months, the Tigers would like to attempt a military adventure to enable a few more bargain chips for the Tiger chieftain.

The changes in the post-9/11 world opinion stands to discourage the Tigers to take on a key economic target. Such conduct would, undoubtedly, put the Tigers to a bunch of garden terrorists, which is not a great achievement for an organisation clamouring for international recognition. However, the conduct of the LTTE is so unpredictable that there is no guarantee that the international opinion would keep the Tigers away from civilian and economic targets.

In the backdrop of a fast track economic growth measured at 8.1 percent for the first half of this year, which would enhance the government's affordability to spend on military hardware, there is always a possibility of the Tigers attempting to hamper economic growth.

Greater risk

Still a key military target is at greater risk. The Air Force and Navy have performed a crucial part in the current military successes. The air strikes carried out by Israeli built Kafir Supersonic fighter jets proved to be extremely successful.

Indeed, as it transpired, the eight defendants arrested in the United States over conspiring to provide material support to LTTE had sought to procure S 18 Surface to Air Missiles to down Kafir aircraft.

LTTE agents Nadarasa Yagorasa (Yoga) and Sathajhan Sarachandran (Satha) in a discussion with an undercover FBI agent posing as an arms dealer had specially referred to Surface to Air Missiles to be used against the Kafir, according to US Department of Justice

The Navy for its part routed sea Tigers in a number of encounters in the recent months. Indeed, sea Tigers attempted to blow up a vessel transporting two MI 17 helicopters after overhaul repairs in Ukraine. The four black sea Tigers who were arrested - along with explosive laden boat and magnetic bombs- had also confessed that the Dvora Fast Attack Craft (FAC) was their target.

Given the increasing importance of the Navy and Air Force, as shown in its recent performance, there is a looming threat that the Tigers could attempt a commando style suicide operation in a bid to neutralise a significant part of the operational capabilities of the naval and air assets.

The primary target of the LTTE attack on the Katunayake International Airport was Kafir fighter jets in the adjacent military airport.

Equally important, Dvora Fast Attack Craft (FAC) is the backbone of the Navy's operational capability.

Stepped up security in the city of Colombo and most important the counter espionage and counter terrorism operations have made its impact felt. Intelligence operatives of the LTTE and its support networks have severely affected. That is one reason for the city of Colombo not to experience the repetition of bombing on civilian targets. But, fighting terrorism is such that the terrorists could succeed due to a simple loophole of the security force.

Sea landing

Back in the Northern front; the LTTE attempted a sea landing in Nagar Kovil in the sunny morning of Thursday, which also marked the World Peace Day. Troops observed a flotilla of sea Tiger vessels off Nagar Kovil and suspicion was that they were trying to infiltrate the Nagar Kovil FDL.

Troops fired with heavy caliber machine guns. The Tigers provided the boats with artillery and mortar fire cover from 122 mm artillery guns positioned in Pallai. Troops retaliated with artillery fire, while Air Force Kafir fighter jets carried out a few sorties on the LTTE artillery and mortar locations in Pallai.

Nagar Kovil remains to be a possible target of a major Tiger onslaught to lay siege to Jaffna. According to highly placed intelligence sources, the Tigers could attempt an attack on the Thondamanaru Bridge, which link Thennamarachchi and Wadamarachchi across the lagoon.

Any damage to the bridge would cut off the troops in Nagar Kovil from the rest of the land mass. The impact would be heavier if the attack is carried out during the Northeast monsoon.

The LTTE strategy according to intelligence sources is to conduct a sea landing in Manal Kadu and attack the Bridge simultaneously fighting a frontal battle in the Nagar Kovil FDL.

Indeed, the Tigers attempted a sea landing in Manal Kadu, during the first day of the abortive bid to overrun the security forces' Northern Forward defence lines.

A flotilla of sea Tiger vessels was launched from Champian Pattu. They retreated when the troops positioned a Multi-Barrel Rocket Launcher (MBRL).

But, one senior military official well versed with the area remarked, "we should invite them there." "We are very strong there (Nagar Kovil)." As the fighting dies down in the Northern front and indeed, troops wait for the political green light to advance towards EPS, which would depend on the success or failure of the Norwegian bid to resume peace talks - operational structures of the LTTE during its failed offensive have been unearthed.

Theepan, the Tiger Wanni commander who is a colonel in LTTE ranks has been the overall commander of the operation. Senior Tiger member, Nagulan led the Charles Anthony Brigade, a battle hardened Tiger fighting formation, which was named after the first LTTE cadre killed by the security forces, Charles Anthony alias Seelan.

Female Tiger leader Durga led Malathi Brigade, an all female fighting formation named after the first female Tiger Malathi.

Vidusha, another female Tiger leader led the Sothiya Brigade, another all woman Tiger formation. Lakshman led Tiger border guards known as Ellaipadai and a team of ex Tigers.

Sea Tiger boss Soosai had been the overall commander of the sea Tiger operations. Mangalabesh led the Sea Tigers in the operation.

Victor led an Anti -Tank Regiment, which is a team of LTTE cadres armed with Rocket Propel Grenades (RPG). This team was trained during the ceasefire and Prabhakaran himself presided over their passing out parade.

However, according to well-placed sources, the Tigers did not commit another specialised fighting formation known as Imran Pandiyan in the recent battle. Imran Pandiyan is led by Ratnam Master. This team is also assigned for the security of the Tiger supremo since he removed the Jayanthan Brigade, dominated by Eastern cadres from his security following Karuna's split.

The understanding is that the Imran Pandiyan Brigade could play a pivotal part in an upcoming Tiger offensive.

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Deadly 200 ton cargo in sunken Tiger ship

On Sunday, former USA Coast Guard Cutter, Courageous ( P-621), re-commissioned as SLNS Samudura made initial contact with a suspected flagless vessel of about 35 m in length, off Sangamankanda in the Eastern waters. SLNS Samudura communicated the suspected vessel via the international maritime radio channel ordering it to stop for the inspection.

The suspected vessel, however, moved despite the orders. Initial warning shots were fired. The vessel responded with heavy calibre machine gunfire. "We suspected they fired with a 23mm gun," said a senior naval official.

The Chinese built Haizhui class Fast Attack Gun Boat, SLNS Ranajaya was dispatched to join the SLNS Samudura.

Air support was requested to hinder the movement of the ship. The initial plan was to tow the ship to the coast. However, LTTE members aboard fired at the Navy crew, making it difficult to approach the suspected vessel.

Air Force Kafir fighter jets attacked the ship, which even after the air strikes was on the move despite the fire raging inside.

The two Naval vessels engaged with the ship, which after a series of explosions went down in the evening around 4.30 in the seas 120 nautical miles off the East of Kalmunai.

Given the size of the vessel, it is estimated that around 200 tons of a deadly load of ammunition and SAM missiles would have been the cargo.

"We believe anti aircraft missiles and a huge consignment of artillery shells would have been in the ship," a senior naval official said. "There were a series of explosions before it went down' Given the route taken by the suspected vessel, the Naval official believes that the ship would have emerged from Indonesian waters, which has its dubious reputation for sea piracy.

It was the intense naval cordon guarding the Sri Lankan waters that crumbled the LTTE attempt to rearm at this crucial moment.

Indeed, during the latter part of the abortive push to Jaffna and later trying to hold on to Sampur, the Tigers show signs that it was running short of ammunition for artillery and mortar. Sunday Observer reported this a few weeks ago during the operation to capture Eastern Tiger enclave, Sampur.

Later when the government made its intentions on the capture of EPS, signals came from the Wanni - indeed made known from Brussels through Norwegians- that the Tigers were prepared for unconditional talks. Had the Tigers succeeded in smuggling the deadly cargo, it would have been a turning point. Given the thinking of the LTTE leadership, the Tigers, undoubtedly, are planning to counter military gains in the recent fighting.

This is not the first time the Navy sank Tiger arms smuggling vessels. The MV Ahat was sunk by the Indian Navy off Point Pedro on June 16, 1993, MV Horizon was sunk by the Sri Lankan Navy off Nayaru on February 14, 1996, MV Fratzescom was sunk by the Sri Lankan Navy off Mullaitivu on November 2, 1997, MV Mariamman was sunk by the Sri Lankan Navy off the Andaman islands on March 11, 1998, MV Koimer was sunk by the Sri Lankan Navy, off Mullaitivu on March 20, 2003, MV Shoshin was sunk by the Sri Lankan Navy off Mullaitivu on June 14, 2003.