A week such eventful...

* President India bound

* Tiger Leader to deliver 'Maaveerar day' speech

* Tigers losing Vakarai

This week will be crucial in shaping the country's troubled peace process. The events lined up for the week is so vital that, they will, undoubtedly, determine the direction of the peace process.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa's Indian visit, second since his election would be decisive. Set against it is the Tiger leader Velupillai Prabhakaran's so called 'Mahaveerar Day' address, dubbed as the annual 'policy statement' of the Tigers.

Shiv Shankar Menon, the Indian Foreign Secretary who visited Colombo last week, as a prelude to President Rajapaksa's visit is on record as saying that he conveyed to the Sri Lankan authorities of New Delhi's desire to see " an early comprehensive political solution" to the ethnic conflict in her Southern neighbour.

Talks

Menon during his two day visit held talks with the political hierarchy including the President himself, Prime Minister, Foreign Minister and Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa.

A Press communique issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the Indian envoy held discussions on a range of issues, which included, among others, the current developments relating to the peace process, status of negotiations on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, proposed Indian investment in a Coal Power Plant in Trincomalee and on prospects for cooperation in the health and cultural spheres.

Geo-political sentiments across the Palk Strait in Tamil Nadu, would also impact on the President's visit.

The importance of the Tamil Nadu factor can never be overlooked.

It was early this month, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.Karunanithi wrote to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh over the plight of people in Jaffna since the closure of the only road link.

On Friday, the President before his departure to India told reporters that:"What I also want to do is to convey to the Tamil Nadu leadership that we do not consider every Tamil to be a supporter of the LTTE.

"We always look to their help and there is a lot that we can learn from them on devolution."

He added that discussions were underway to transport a consignment of some 7,000 tonnes of essential food from India to the Jaffna peninsula.

The President also said he would seek a greater cooperation with India on maritime patrol to prevent cross-border terrorism and arm smuggling.

The Presidential visit comes in the wake of an MoU between the two main political actors in Southern politics, The SLFP and UNP, which agreed to cooperate - for two years- to resolve problems which burnt this isle in the recent history, the ethnic conflict being the most devastating.

Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe will be following the President to New Delhi. Understandably, it is not an coincident. Wickremesinghe is expected to travel to Kolkata and then head to New Delhi for talks with Indian officials tomorrow (27).

Tomorrow holds an added importance to the Tigers also, but for different reasons. Prabhakaran would deliver his so called 'annual address' in the evening, the culmination of a week long remembrance of his fallen cadres.

Last year he described President Rajapaksa, who was then only a couple of weeks at the top most political position in this country, as a realist and offered to wait and see how the President put his acts together.

But, the Tiger leader did not live up to his announcement, instead, a couple of weeks in to his Presidency, Rajapaksa was greeted with claymore mine explosions in the North.

Trademark Tiger practice

That was part of trademark Tiger practice to intimidate the government into submission.

What Prabhakaran miscalculated at that time was the political will of President Rajapaksa to act decisively in the face of increasing attacks against the security forces.

His political will and green light for counter military actions heralded to number of successful military operations in the year to come.

According to senior military officials - as well as sources close to the LTTE it is highly unlikely - that Prabhakaran would say anything in effect to a withdrawal from the truce agreement, given the ground situation where his fighters are fast losing the grip and the ground also in some cases.

He could come out with many a rhetoric, but, he can not afford to abrogate the ceasefire agreement.

Indeed, the 'Mahaveerar week' commemorations in the Wanni was in a low key sans the presence of the senior Tiger leadership. The only exception was Wanni 'Tiger commander' Theepan's attendance at the inaugural event held at the Kilinochchi Kanagarapuram Maha Vidyalaya.

V. Balakumar, former EROS leader who disbanded his party to join the LTTE also took part in the event.

Whatever the Tiger leader would say tomorrow, the LTTE is planning a retreat in Vakarai, the last Tiger bastion in the East.

According to senior military commanders in the area, the LTTE is in a desperate bid to hold the territory till the end of 'Mahaveerar Week', in a damage control to its reputation.

Eastern Tiger 'commander', Soornam is reportedly have left Vakarai and is in the North of Trincomalee,according to intelligence sources.

Soornam followed Banu, the LTTE's 'special commander' in Batticaloa and Amparai who has now gone to the Wanni.

Gunam who was appointed in Soornam's place was killed in an ambush last week. Information on the nature of his death was not available.

According to intelligence sources, Gunam's successor is Paskaran who is leading the LTTE from Kathiraveli.

Meanwhile, 21 LTTE cadres were reported killed on Thursday when the security forces retaliated to a mortar attack by the Tigers.

The security forces used tank fire, heavy artillery and Multi Barrel Rocket Launchers (MBRL) during the counter fire which lasted for several hours.

Casualties

Seven soldiers were wounded, two seriously in the exchange of fire. Four LTTE cadres were reported killed in Kandi Muruppu in another confrontation with the security forces.

On Wednesday, a Presidential delegation visited Batticaloa to discuss the transport of humanitarian supplies to the besieged Vakarai. There are 10,000 internally displaced persons, who fled fighting in Vakarai, languishing in refugee camps in the Batticaloa district. Add to them is 30,000 people held up in the embattled Vakarai held against their will by the LTTE, according to disclosures by the people who made their way to the government controlled area.

An LTTE deserter who surrendered to the army last week confessed, to the shock of his interrogators, that his team had laid 8,000 anti personal mines in several areas of Vakarai to avoid the exodus of the people and infiltration by the army. He had said another team was also assigned to mine the jungle pathways.

Though the Vakarai residents who fled their villages earlier complained that the LTTE had mined the area, that was the first time, security forces were told it by the first hand sources.

During a meeting with the Presidential delegation attended by the Government Agent and Security Forces commanders, it was decided to send to Vakarai humanitarian supplies sufficient for a month in a single convoy.

In Accordance with this decision, plans are underway to send a convoy of food and medicine to Vakarai on Tuesday (28).

Humanitarian issues would hold an added value in President's talks in New Delhi. Donor co-chairs who met in Washington last week have also urged the two parties to depoliticise the issue of humanitarian assistance.Developments taking place in New Delhi and of course in Wanni, would shape the peace process. We could only have fingers crossed and hope for the better.

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