World Meteorological Day fell on March 23 :

Deciphering the mysteries of weather

by Pramod DE SILVA

With the incessant heat prevailing in the afternoon and night, the word 'climate' is on everybody's lips. We yearned for some rain and Nature obliged, somewhat belatedly. Amid all these developments, there is one undeniable fact - the world's climate is changing. Consequently, there is a great deal of enthusiasm to learn more about the weather.

And we will never stop learning more about the weather patterns around our world. There are so many things we still do not know when it comes to climate, and climate change. This is where the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) with its 189 Members comes in. The WMO, the UN organisation devoted to the study of meteorology, celebrated 60 years on March 23. Coincidentally, it was also the World Meteorological Day.

This day commemorates the entry into force, on that date in 1950, of the WMO Convention creating the Organization. This year, the theme was "60 years of service for your safety and well-being".

This is an appropriate theme, since the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) was founded to promote international cooperation in the field of weather, climate, water and other related sciences.

The WMO used the Day to raise awareness of the work of its 189 members' National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS).

How does the WMO work ?

It works around the clock to facilitate the provision and exchange of real-time information from its 189 NMHSs and 35 regional specialised meteorological centres around the world. Data is collected from some 10,000 land stations, 3,000 aircraft, 1,000 upper-air stations and 1,000 ships and nearly 70 satellites.

The main aim is perfecting early warning systems and effective preparedness measures for natural disasters, which help to drastically reduce the loss of lives. But it is not all about 'immediate' warnings. The WMO is also looking at long-term effects.

For example, through monitoring surfaces and ground water as well as through quality controls, the agency has been able to issue authoritative warnings on dwindling water supplies.

It is also looking at the phenomenon of climate change, along with several other UN agencies. It has issued timely alerts on the thinning of the ozone layer and, together with the UN Environment Programme set up the Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In a message to mark the 'Met Day', WMO Chief Michel Jarraud said: "I am convinced that WMO, together with its members, will be even more relevant in serving humanity over decades to come. We owe this capability to successive generations of meteorologists and hydrologists from all countries."

Indeed, weathermen do a thankless job, perusing uninspiring satellite images and other charts to predict the weather as accurately as possible. Thousands of lives have been saved worldwide due to their efforts and research. We cannot control weather yet.

The best alternative is to accurately predict weather changes and natural calamities in order to save lives. Whereas in 1950 we only could hope for 24- to 36-hour forecasts, today we have fairly accurate seven-day predictions, an achievement of WMO's international coordinating role in observations, research, analysis and modelling, and also led to longer-range predictions, from a season to a year ahead.

Yet not all Member States of the WMO are fully equipped in this regard. As the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami amply demonstrated, nearly all the affected countries were totally unprepared for the catastrophe. There was no warning mechanism in place. Leave alone tsunami warning systems, some countries do not even have full fledged weather services. This is especially true in the case of some of the newer Members and the WMO is striving to provide them with the required facilities.

Research remains the key to weather prediction. Following the First World Climate Conference, organized in 1979 to consider the looming threat of climate change and its potential impact, the WMO established the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), subsequently also joined by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO.

Moreover, as a consequence of the Second World Climate Conference (Geneva, November 1990), WMO joined forces with UNEP and the IOC of UNESCO to establish the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS).

High technology is also essential in this quest. Several developments opened exceptional scientific and technological possibilities for weather prediction. The launch of weather satellites and the unprecedented possibilities they offered was a giant leap forward.

The development of computers and telecommunications also helped. All these have now converged to facilitate real-time international exchange of weather data, which is easily available to the public via television, Internet and smartphones. I can instantly know the temperature in any major city in the world via my iPod Touch. Now, isn't that progress?

Progress is the main factor that drives the worldwide meteorological community. While we have come a long way in terms of weather and climate prediction, there is a long way to go as well. Indeed, weather shall remain a talking point for ages to come. After all, there is something inherently alluring about its very unpredictability.