Uncertain outlook as Berlusconi rises in Italy vote

9 February AFP

A spectre of instability hangs over Italy's political future, with Silvio Berlusconi's comeback in the polls just two weeks ahead of the election increasing uncertainty over whether the frontrunning centre-left can form a solid majority.

Final polls published showed that billionaire Berlusconi, running in his sixth campaign, has narrowed the gap to as little as four points between the centre-right and the centre-left.

The left, headed by former Communist Pier Luigi Bersani, is now credited with between 31.1 and 35.5 percent of the vote, while the right has crept up to between 28.5 and 30.5 percent.

While no political analyst is forecasting a Berlusconi victory, several are concerned about the need for a workable government that can push through reforms at a time of deep crisis for Italy.

"The obvious risk is that (Bersani's) Democratic Party and (centrist leader Mario) Monti get into bed together and the government falls within a year or six months," said James Walston, a professor at the American University of Rome.

"The risks for the Italian economy should that happen are great," he said, in reference to Italy's debt crisis troubles, which observers fear could flare up again should Berlusconi get into power and undo key reforms implemented by Monti. Pollster Nicola Piepoli rejected the idea that the media tycoon's recent promises to the electorate -- such as refunding a controversial property tax -- could see him sweep into the lead.

"Berlusconi has done the most he can. But Bersani is ahead and that's where he'll stay," he said.

Roberto Weber, head of the SWG polling institute, agreed. "I expect the margin seen today to be confirmed after the vote," he said.