Passenger demand moderates in November
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) global passenger
traffic results for November 2013 showing a moderation in the pace of
recent demand growth. Total revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) rose
4.1% compared to November 2012. This was slower than the 6.5%
year-over-year growth recorded in October.
In November capacity expanded by 6.1% which out-paced demand growth.
This led to a 1.4 percentage point slip in the load factor to 76.3%.
Demand drivers such as consumer and business confidence, however,
continue to improve. This suggests that growth may accelerate in the
coming months.
"Demand growth hit a speed bump in November. But with continued
modest improvements in economic conditions the outlook remains
positive," said, IATA, Director General and CEO Tony Tyler.
November 2013 international passenger demand was up 4.8% compared to
the year-ago period. Capacity rose 6.3% versus November 2012 and load
factor dipped 1.0 percentage points to 75.5%. All regions except Africa
recorded year-over-year increases in demand. However, compared to
October, all regions reported slower demand growth for November.
Asia-Pacific carriers recorded an increase in demand of 5.5% compared
to November 2012. This was supported by the stronger performance of
major economies such as China and Japan. With capacity up 6.8% on the
previous year, the load factor slipped 0.9 percentage points to 75.4%.
European carriers' demand for international services rose 4.1% in
November 2013 compared to the year-ago period. Capacity expanded more
quickly at 4.8% leading to a 0.5 percentage point dip in the load factor
to 77%. Modest economic improvements and rising consumer and business
confidence are supporting the growth in demand.
North American airlines saw demand rise 1.7% over the 2012 period.
This was a slowdown on October growth, which was 3.6%. Capacity rose
4.7%, causing load factor to fall 2.2 percentage points to 77.5%. Recent
economic indicators have shown a solid fourth quarter, despite the
disruption of the government shutdown in October.
Middle East carriers had the strongest year-over-year demand growth
at 9.7%. Airlines in the region have benefited from strong growth in
business-related premium travel throughout the year, particularly to
Africa and other developing markets. Capacity rose 12.8% and load factor
slipped two percentage points to 72.1%.
Latin American airlines experienced a 6.9% rise in demand in
November, the second strongest growth recorded. Robust expansion in
business related travel is being driven by the strong performance of
economies such as Colombia, Peru and Chile. Capacity rose 3.6% and load
factor climbed 2.4 percentage points to 79.4%, the highest for any
region.
Africa was the only region to see a decline in demand: November
traffic fell 2% compared to the same month in 2012. Capacity climbed
2.6%, pushing load factor down 3 percentage points to 63.5%, by far the
lowest for any region.
Volatility in the air transport statistics rather than the start of a
downward trend may have contributed to the lower number, as the demand
environment is strong.
Demand for domestic travel rose 3.1% in November 2013 compared to the
year-ago period, a significant deceleration versus the October increase
of 5.9%.
There was significant variation in performance among markets. Total
domestic capacity was up 5.6% and load factor dipped 1.9 percentage
points to 77.7%.
US domestic traffic fell 1.2% in November versus November 2012.
This most likely is linked to the timing of the Thanksgiving holiday
nearer the end of the month, which caused some traffic associated with
the holiday to slip into December.
China's domestic traffic jumped 9.3% compared to the year ago, the
strongest performance for any market. The vibrant growth is consistent
with the robust economic activity.
Japan saw a 3.3% rise in domestic traffic for November
year-over-year, supported by sustained increases in business activity
and improving employment rates. Brazil's domestic traffic rose 4.5%, the
second consecutive month of solid performance after a difficult first
three quarters of 2013.
Indian domestic traffic rose 3.4% in November compared to a year ago,
after an 8.6% rise in October, signaling that conditions remain
volatile. Russia's November domestic traffic climbed 9.2%. Demand for
air travel is being supported by a resilient labour market in line with
government policy to maintain high employment and sustained income
levels.
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