World economy bounces back
Five years after the global financial crisis, the world economy is
showing signs of bouncing back this year, pulled along by a recovery in
high-income economies, said the World Bank's latest Global Economic
Prospects report.
Developing-country growth is also firming, thanks in part to the
recovery in high-income economies and moderating, but still strong
growth in China.
Growth prospects for 2014 are, however, sensitive to the tapering of
monetary stimulus in the United States, which began earlier this month,
and to the structural shifts in China's economy.
The report forecasts growth in developing countries to pick up from
4.8 percent in 2013 to a slower than previously expected 5.3 percent
this year, 5.5 percent in 2015 and 5.7 percent in 2016.
While the pace is about 2.2 percentage points lower than during the
boom period of 2003-07, the slower growth is not a cause for concern.
Almost all of the difference reflects a cooling off of the
unsustainable turbo-charged pre-crisis growth, with very little due to
an easing of growth potential in developing countries. Moreover, even
this slower growth represents a substantial (60 percent) improvement
compared with growth in the 1980s and early 1990s.
Global GDP is projected to grow from 2.4 percent in 2013 to 3.2
percent this year, stabilising at 3.4 percent and 3.5 percent in 2015
and 2016, , with much of the initial acceleration reflecting a pick-up
in high-income economies.
For high-income countries, the drag on growth from fiscal
consolidation and policy uncertainty will continue to ease, accelerating
economic growth from 1.3 percent in 2013 to 2.2 percent this year,
stabilising at 2.4 percent for each of 2015 and 2016. Amongst
high-income economies, the recovery is most advanced in the US, with GDP
expanding for 10 quarters now.
The US economy is projected to grow by 2.8 percent this year (from
1.8 percent in 2013), firming to 2.9 and 3.0 percent in 2015 and 2016.
Growth in the Euro Area, after two years of contraction, is projected
to be 1.1 percent this year, and 1.4 and 1.5 percent in 2015 and 2016.
"Global economic indicators show improvement. But one does not have
to be especially astute to see there are dangers that lurk beneath the
surface.
The Euro Area is out of recession but per capita incomes are still
declining in several countries.
"We expect developing country growth to rise above five percent in
2014, with some countries doing considerably better, with Angola at
eight percent, China 7.7 percent, and India at 6.2 percent.
But it is important to avoid policy stasis so that the green shoots
don't turn into brown stubble," said World Bank, Senior Vice President
and Chief Economist, Kaushik Basu.
The report urges developing countries to implement structural reforms
that would help raise the capacity of their economies, if they are to
regain their pre-crisis growth rates.
It outlines some measures that policymakers could implement to set in
motion a virtuous cycle of stronger investment, including foreign
investment, and output growth over the medium term.
|