Welcome to the fast lane - circa 20 835

By Pramod De Silva

What kind of car will you be driving in the year 2035? Well, chances are it will drive itself while you read a newspaper on your 2035 version of the iPad or even on the OLED screen in your car. It will most probably be electric or powered by hydrogen. It might even fly. It will communicate with other cars, road signals and the road itself!

Driverless cars are being tested by some leading car-makers

Audi’s concept ‘Connected car’

Although this sounds futuristic, all these technologies exist more or less even now, though they will be far more sophisticated by 2035. But why focus on 2035? That is when most analysts and auto experts expect completely driverless cars to take the road.

A glimpse of the future was seen at two events held in the US - the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) and the Detroit Auto Show. While Google has been demonstrating driverless tech for years, mainstream car-makers have now joined the fray.

Technical building blocks

BMW and Audi unveiled their latest driverless car technology and conducted demonstration drives. BMW added its highly active assist technology to a modified 2 Series which can slide into a controlled drift to demonstrate how precise the control systems are and how it can handle a critical situation. “It’s like the best test driver you have,” says Dr. Werner Huber, BMW Project Manager.

The car uses steering, braking and throttle to control acceleration, deceleration and direction in very small, exact amounts. The demonstration is just one aspect of the technical building blocks required to make a self-driving car. BMW’s autonomous driving assistant is also intelligent enough to change lanes to overtake slower vehicles and then pull back in when the manoeuvre is completed - all without any prompting or action on the part of the physical (human) driver.

There are also sensors, environmental modelling and decision and driving strategy technologies that BMW and other car-makers are working on. The technology is getting smaller and the sensors and cameras are shrinking to barely noticeable sizes.

Audi demonstrated its Nvidia-powered system, used for key automated-driving tasks such as traffic sign recognition, lane departure warnings and pedestrian spotting.

Nvidia also makes 3D displays. For one on-road demo at the CES, Audi was allowed to tap into the Las Vegas traffic control centre, which electronically monitors and controls traffic signals across the metropolitan area. An Audi sedan equipped with an in-car receiver could drive around town and display what the next traffic light on the road was about to do.

Google has been demonstrating driverless tech for years

An impression of driverless cars in Milton Keynes in the UK by 2017

Autonomous driving features are at least seven to 10 years away from becoming commercially available. The technology in the cars is developing fast, but the main problems are regulations and laws still mired in the 80s. Laws will have to be updated around the world to make it legal for automated cars to drive on the road.

As one report put it, “Insurance and liability are particular tricky. If a car driving itself gets into an accident that results in damages or injuries, who is responsible? The driver who was watching Netflix on a state-of-the-art car entertainment system, or the manufacturer that designed the car?”

Unpredictable human errors

On the other hand, makers of driverless cars say the technology will be safer than people-driven vehicles because they eliminate unpredictable human errors such as distracted or drunk driving, or poor reactions to emergency situations. However, these robotic cars won’t be completely accident-proof. The first major accident involving the technology will be a huge public relations hurdle for the entire industry.

It will most probably be a gradual process. Some cars already have automated parking features and traffic assistance technology that take over in specific scenarios. For example, literally at the push of a button, some versions of the BMW electric i3 will begin the hunt for a parking spot.

Once found, the driver will be notified on its large colour display and then, by simply signalling and holding down a button and nothing else, the car parks. Brake Assist and other emergency assistance features have been around for a decade or more.

Even in a completely automated car, someone will have to watch the proceedings and the road ahead. And car engineers need to take into account the reaction time of the average human confronted with an emergency-decision making process, which is at least five seconds.

Of course, there is also the question whether those who actually love to drive cars will fall for highly automated cars. For people who love the act of driving, taking a powerful car such as a BMW and turning the action over to an automated system might seem like a waste. For this reason, all cars are likely to have a manual override.

Privacy will be another big concern. The sensors and in-car systems can collect data about driving patterns and locations and save that data in the cloud.

The idea is to use this information to assist the driver, but fears have been raised that such information could be used by various public and private organisations in an unethical manner.

A driverless car

The car drives itself while the driver reads the newspaper and enjoys a drink

Information collection will become more prevalent in the future.

Lines of communications

Eventually, car-makers hope to open the lines of communications between individual cars on the road to better avoid traffic jams and prevent accidents. That technology could be even farther off than automated driving, since car manufacturers need to come together to agree on protocols and frequencies.

Future cars will even be able to talk to your house. A Mercedes system lets a car do just that. The interface is with the Nest home protection system, which can provide remote control of a house’s thermostat and monitoring of the smoke and carbon-monoxide alarms. A demonstration showed a car passenger raising the temperature in a mountain cabin so it would be cosy when the travellers arrived.

Audi also prototyped a tablet-based display system that “lives in your car” and lets passengers control many vehicle functions. A demonstration included a back-seat passenger adjusting the cabin temperature, radio selections and stereo volume.

The tablet can also connect to the Web through a new higher-speed wi-fi system that is being rolled out in many new Audis this year. The tablet, which would carry the Audi brand name, is powered by a new Nvidia Tegra 4 chip. Audi also showed its new laser lights at the CES.

Chevrolet also had an interesting option at the CES that will bring a near-professional grade performance tracker and recorder into the retail models of its flagship performance car. The system will allow Corvette drivers the chance to compare their timings on a race circuit, pull vehicle information - engine speed and gear selection, brake force, and steering-wheel angle, to help Corvette owners get the most out of their new cars.

With all these technologies on offer and undergoing further development in the years to come, I can hardly wait for 2035. I am sure most other drivers around the world are also waiting to let go of the steering wheel, for once.