Census and Statistics Dept assures credibility

By Gamini Warushamana

The Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) has assured the accuracy and credibility of its socio economic indicators and categorically denied recent claims in parliament and the media that GDP and inflation figures published by the department are cooked up data.

The Director General of the department, D.C.A. Gunawardena with Deputy Governor of Central Bank Nandalal Weerasinghe and the officials of the department explained in detail how inflation and GDP figures are calculated, at a media briefing.

Gunawardena said that all statistics are compiled in accordance with the relevant recommendations of the UN, IMF and the World Bank and, therefore, they are accepted by the stakeholders and other international agencies. The compilation of these indicators are being done by a large number of officials in a transparent manner.

The processes are updated from time to time according to requirements and can be compared internationally. None of the stakeholders or users of our data have challenged the credibility of the data until allegations were raised in Parliament last month, he said.

"The base year of the CCPI changed to reflect the changing consumption pattern with the development of the economy and it is the international practice. Accordingly, the new index was introduced in 2008 with 2002 as the base year and updated in 2011 based on consumer income and expenditure survey of 2006 and 2007.

Alcohol was removed from the CCPI commodity basket on a government decision to discourage alcohol consumption. Prices are collected from 14 markets and the average price of an item is taken from the prices of 36 sales outlets including supermarkets," he said.

Recently JVP MP Anura Kumara Dissanayake said in Parliament that his party has credible evidence that the rate of economic growth in the first quarter of 2013 which was included in the budget was increased to 5.5 percent from 5.4 percent over the telephone, and later it was further inflated to 6 per cent, on an 'order' given by the Director General of the DCS. This statement created ripples and created lot of media reports and discussions on the credibility of economic indicators. Gunawardena said that the allegation of inflated GDP growth rates, is false and based on a partial statement given by National Account's Division Director at an inquiry. Compilation of quarterly national accounts is a complex process depending on primary data provided by over 300 institutions. Estimates are revised regularly with the update of data and the department published provisional data that are subject to adjustments. The quarterly GDP data is finalised and published after 15 months. The 2013 first quarter GDP estimates which was subject to criticism was also revised following the normal procedure and this upward revision of the GDP was done based on updated data on agriculture and construction sector growth, he said.