A century in the air

We have been flying for 100 years. “We” in this sentence means ordinary passengers. True, the first powered flight took off 111 years ago, but flying was confined to daredevil aviation pioneers in those early days. The first commercial flight - which involves the carriage of fee-paying passengers - took off only in 1914. Taking off from St. Petersburg, Florida and flying to Tampa, the Benoist flying boat was piloted by Tony Jannus, with the former mayor of St. Petersburg Abram C Pheil as the sole passenger. It was a landmark in aviation and the industry has never looked back since then.

Commercial aviation is easily among the top innovations that have changed our lives and made the world a smaller place. In this sense, only the motor car can claim a similar place. Just look at the statistics: A century after the first commercial flight took off, around US$746 billion is expected to be spent this year on global air travel, a record 3.3 billion passenger journeys will be taken and 1,400 aircraft help will enter the skies this year alone. Aircraft manufacturers forecast there would be demand for more than 35,000 new planes worth US$4.8 trillion over the next 20 years. By 2032 the global fleet will top 40,000. (It is already over 30,000 not counting helicopters).

There are around 90,000 commercial and general aviation civilian flights every day, originating from 9,000 airports around the world. At any given time, there are between 10,000 and 13,000 planes in the air. Commercial jet aviation is an exceptionally safe way to get from A to B. More than three million people around the world fly safely on commercial aircraft every day. In fact, it is much safer to be in the air than on the road. The total number of road deaths since the car came to the mainstream is much higher than the number of fatalities in plane crashes since the dawn of commercial aviation.

The risk of being involved in a commercial jet aircraft accident where there are multiple fatalities is approximately one in three million. To put this in perspective, you would have to fly once every day for more than 8,200 years to accumulate three million flights. Thirty years ago, fatal accidents on commercial jetliners occurred approximately once in every 200 million Km flown. Today, it’s two billion miles flown for every fatal accident - a 10-fold safety improvement. And safety will improve with the lessons learnt from those rare tragedies, such as the disappearance of flight MH370 which has prompted calls for better tracking of aircraft and downloading of black box data in real time.

Invention

Aviation has changed a lot during the past 100 years. The invention of the jet engine was the single biggest advance in aviation in this period, because it enabled faster, more comfortable travel. The first jetliner de Havilland DH 106 Comet changed the face of air travel and the planes that came in its wake, such as the Boeing 757, 747, 767, 777, McDonnell Douglas MD-80, Lockheed Tri-Star and the Airbus family of aircraft have made flying an everyday experience.

But flying is not still exactly cheap. In a famous case study, a computer executive is reported to have said that air tickets would only cost a few dollars if the aviation industry saw the same economies of scale achieved by the computer industry. The airline industry is apparently very profitable, judging by the revelations made at the recent IATA (International Air Transport Association) in Doha, Qatar.

The delegates were told that airlines make a profit of only US$5.42 for each passenger they carry. This could be even less for the low cost carriers (LCC). “With a net profit margin of just 2.4 percent, airlines only retain $5.42 per passenger carried,” said Tony Tyler CEO of IATA at the group's 70th AGM.

The industry is collectively expected to make a post-tax profit of $18 billion this year, up from $10.6 billion last year and a record amount but that does not apparently always translate well to pure profit for individual airlines.

IATA suggests that if fuel prices - one of the biggest costs to airlines - were to fall, then because of the keenly competitive nature of the industry it would be the customer that would be the beneficiary. Even with high fuel prices IATA forecasts that on average fares this year will fall by around 3.5 percent. Indeed, LCCs have made flying much more affordable and many customers are willing to forego meals and certain other amenities for a cheaper flight.

Passengers

The so-called full-service (and full fare) airlines are trying to entice more passengers with better aircraft such as the Airbus A380 and the Boeing Dreamliner 787 and individual countries are also seeking more aircraft and passengers for their airports.

The Business and First Classes often rival hotels on the ground as airlines go the extra mile to pamper their well-heeled guests.

The Asia-Pacific region is fast becoming the hub of world aviation – Singapore and Dubai are among the world’s busiest airports already. Connectivity is the name of the game as airports and airlines seek more destinations against their names.

This has brought previously remote regions closer, such as South America and Asia, which now have direct flights.

Airlines too have formed alliances to leverage their synergies and also to add more destinations in just one click. Accordingly the world’s major airlines have formed three alliances - oneworld (of which SriLankan Airlines is the newest member), Sky Team and Star Alliance, which enables them share resources on a vast network. The passengers also benefit through enhanced seamless connections and easy frequent flier miles accumulation across all airlines in a given group.

There is no doubt that aviation will continue to change the way we see the world.

We might see faster planes, new fuel varieties, better safety and security systems, better airports and more flights to more destinations. But the magic of flying will remain undiminished, just as it was in 1914.