'Knowledge Economy concept gains momentum'
Secretary to the Treasury Dr. P.B. Jayasundera delivered the keynote
speech at the Capital Market Conference 2014 on Thursday.
Excerpts from the speech:
This conference is taking place at a crucial time. The President will
present his 10th consecutive National Budget soon, spelling out the
policy direction of the past 10 consecutive years of transformation of
the economic landscape of our country, in terms of the outlined
direction.
Although there was a reference made last weekend in the media that
the 2015 Budget will be a bag full of Election Goodies, I can assure you
that it will be a development oriented Budget that is in line with the
direction so set, with significant emphasis on the Knowledge Economy
concept which has gained momentum.
The conference is also taking place at an important juncture when
there is a significant worldwide focus on Sri Lanka's economic
prospects. It was only two weeks ago that the Prime Minister of Japan
and the President of China concluded two historic State Visits, creating
a new wave of economic cooperation with the two largest East Asian
economies.
The committed foreign direct investments is well over US$ 2 billion,
on initiatives to promote tourism and aviation as well as trade and
finance, which are of significant importance to the country.
The two leaders of China and Sri Lanka also witnessed the launching
of the Free Trade Agreement between the two countries, which is to be
operationalised by mid 2015.
Sri Lanka's Capital Market also cannot find a better time than this
to host this conference.
The All Share Price Index reflected the recent economic successes by
rising from 1,800 to 7,200 level.
The average daily turnover at Rs. 1,200 Million – three times higher
than what it was five years ago. Foreign investor interest has surged
with 30 percent of the market turnover.
The total net foreign inflows during the past five years was over Rs.
100 billion of which Rs. 10 billion was during this year – so far.
The net value of Unit Trusts has shifted from less than Rs. 7 Billion
to over Rs. 75 Billion and the value of listed debt has increased from
Rs. 12.05 Billion in 2009 to Rs. 68.7 Billion by end 2013.
The market capitalisation is now over Rs. 3 trillion, an appreciation
of 300 percent.
So, all sounds good for the industry participants and investors as
the market has grown well on a diversified basis and underscores
country's economic prospects.
The topic of Asset Markets has attracted global attention in recent
times with assets bubbles in well established markets that have
compelled everyone to take note of underlying risk management
challenges.
Understanding this is difficult when the ‘going is good’ since the
tendency is to forget everything and feel good, but when the ‘going is
bad’, everything becomes amazingly hard. We must not permit good times
of today, to be the sad thoughts of tomorrow.
As William Feather, the famous author and publisher from America once
said, "One of the funny things about Stock Markets is that every time
one person buys, another sells. Both think they are astute.”
Then Warren Buffett, the American business magnate, investor and
philanthropist, constantly ranked as one of the wealthiest people in the
world has a different viewpoint hinting on underlying uncertainties. “I
never attempt to make money on the Stock Market. I buy on the assumption
that they could close the market the next day and not reopen for five
years.”
Then, any ordinary person is bound to get confused from a view
expressed by Suze Orman, the American Financial Advisor, Motivational
Speaker and Television Host who said “I have a million dollars in the
Stock Market, so if I loose a million dollars, I do not personally
care”.
As much as you are engaged in managing this paradox, I am placed no
better, since your ups and downs become invariably my problems as the
Finance Ministry Secretary, particularly when you are not doing well. I
witnessed this a couple of years ago.
Yet, we all need to find a way forward with this paradox. This is the
hard reality at all times when managing Governments. The multi-million
dollar question is ‘How do you keep all stakeholders happy?’ This
dilemma is becoming more and more complex in an emerging globalised
world.
I thought of speaking on ‘Takeoff to a High Altitude – The
Transformation of the Economic Landscape in Sri Lanka’, since it will
help me to articulate the underlying national vision for economic
advancement in Sri Lanka.
This is relevant particularly in the context of country's aspirations
towards the realisation of 20/35 economic millstones, specifically
surpassing US$ 7,000 per capita by 2020 and graduating to a transition
towards an advanced economy by 2035.
There is no doubt that we need a strong financial system and capital
market, among many other building blocks having to get into the proper
context to raise investments of over 40 percent of GDP.
There will also have to be a highly skilled work force within a
strong regulatory and institutional framework if this journey is to be
made unstoppable.
Therefore, at the outset of my speech, let me talk about how the Sri
Lankan economy is evolving at present to relate my topic in the proper
context.
The Sri Lankan economy has been on a high growth path of 7-8 percent
per year since 2005 under the policy framework adopted in terms of
Mahinda Chintana: National Vision For Development.
The economy is increasingly driving globally integrated manufacturing
and high technology industrial activities and breaking ground into new
areas such as IT related services, diversified tourism, shipping,
aviation, banking and professional services that push the service sector
beyond 60 percent of GDP reflecting how well policy reform initiatives,
public investments and the restoration of peace and security pay
dividends.
It appears that any growth below 6 percent is now considered low in
terms of our aspirations, and in terms of the lead Sri Lanka has taken
among emerging Asian economies.
Considering the fact that Sri Lanka has a strong rural base, and
since the Labour Market is well integrated with overseas employment and
youth aspirations are aimed at finding new generation jobs, what we are
compelled to accept an inevitable that no growth rate is workable unless
it is associated with high end economic activities that generate high
income earning employment opportunities, particularly for skilled
workers and professionals, as labour is as mobile as capital in an
increasingly integrated global economy.
Hence there is a compulsion to pursue human capital development as a
priority to push the economy towards a knowledge and skills centric
emphasis.
In terms of Mahinda Chintana: National Vision for Sri Lanka, economic
growth cannot be only for higher income earners who are enjoying above
US$4,000 per capita already but also for those below as well.
Hence, income distribution and welfare aspects also become interwoven
with the process.
The Government also attaches a weight to environment and bio
diversity aspects to differentiate Sri Lanka from many of its
competitors and for the Sri Lankan economy to maintain an edge in terms
of comparative advantage.
These are the multi facetted considerations the Government has placed
emphasis on within the national policy framework.
This year's growth is projected at 7.8 percent, which appears to be a
reality with the first half growth figures at 7.8 percent and the medium
term growth outlook of around 8 percent per annum, which underscores an
increasing trend towards a value chain growth in primary, secondary and
services activities and the structural shift in the economy towards a
service sector led economic drive, although primary agriculture and
manufacturing sectors fuel the engine of growth.
Inflation is low single digit at 4.5 percent at present and the
nominal growth is driven by a high real growth.
What we have seen for years is higher inflation driven nominal growth
rates.
The desire to consolidate with low single digit inflation and bring
the interest rate and exchange rate policy environment, around which
price stability will consolidate, is becoming the monetary policy goal.
This is no doubt the way to move forward, by de-risking the economy
and containing speculative business behaviour in capital and assets
market transactions, to place our country on a long-term sustainable
development path.
In the backdrop of a steady build-up of external reserves surpassing
US$ 9 billion, we could hope to have reserves to give full cover for
market borrowings.
We should now target external reserves equivalent to annual export
earnings, instead of targeting the conventional import need in terms of
number of months. |