China challenges IMF as emergency lender
China is stepping up its role as the lender of last resort to some of
the world's most financially strapped countries.
Chinese officials signaled on the weekend they are willing to expand
a $24 billion currency swap program to help Russia weather the worst
economic crisis since the 1998 default. China has provided $2.3 billion
in funds to Argentina since October as part of a currency swap and last
month it lent $4 billion to Venezuela, whose reserves cover just two
years of debt payments.
By lending to nations shut out of overseas capital markets, Chinese
President Xi Jinping is bolstering the country's influence in the global
economy and cutting into the International Monetary Fund's status as the
go-to financier for governments in financial distress. While the IMF
tends to demand reforms aimed at stabilizing a country's economy in
exchange for loans, analysts speculate that China's terms are more
focused on securing its interests in the resource-rich countries.
"It's always good to have IOUs in the back of your pocket," the chief
investment officer at Kolding, Denmark-based Global Evolution A/S,
Morten Bugge, who helps manage about $2 billion of emerging-market debt,
said.
"These are China's fellow friends and comrades, and to secure
long-term energy could be one of the motivations," he said.
The ruble jumped 4.9 percent to 55.8 per dollar in Moscow on Monday
after Hong Kong-based Phoenix TV cited China's Commerce Minister Gao
Hucheng as saying that expanding the currency swap between the two
nations would help Russia.
The ruble has gained 10 percent over the past two days, paring a sell
off that's made it the world's worst performing currency over the past
six months.
Unlike Ukraine, where the pro-west government received a $17 billion
IMF-led bailout this year, Russia, Argentina and Venezuela are often at
odds with the U.S. and its allies, essentially keeping them out of the
reach of the Washington-based institution. At $3.89 trillion, China
holds the world's largest foreign-exchange reserves, allowing it to fill
the void.
China and Russia signed a three-year currency-swap line of 150
billion yuan ($24 billion) in October, a contract that allows Russia to
borrow the yuan and lend the ruble. While the offer won't relieve the
main sources of pressure on the ruble - which has lost 41 percent this
year amid plunging oil prices and sanctions linked to Russia's
annexation of Crimea - it could bolster investors' confidence in the
country and help stem capital outflows.
Two phone calls to China's central bank seeking comment on the terms
of its currency swaps weren't returned. Russia isn't in talks with China
about any financial aid, Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for President
Vladimir Putin, said recently.
Funding from China has helped raise Argentina's foreign reserves to a
13-month high of $30.9 billion, a boost for a country that has been kept
out of international capital markets since defaulting on foreign
obligations in 2001.
Argentina received $1 billion worth of yuan earlier this month as
part of the three-year currency-swap agreement with China, a central
bank official in the South American country, who asked not to be
identified because he isn't authorised to speak publicly, said recently.
That extended the funds transfered to Argentina to $2.3 billion since
October. The swap is for a maximum of $11 billion over three years.
In Venezuela, President Nicolas Maduro last month added $4 billion he
borrowed from China to the country's reserves after they fell to an
11-year low. The country now has about $21 billion in its coffers, equal
to the amount of debt it has coming due in 2015 and 2016.
Venezuela, which was already plagued by shortages of everything from
toilet paper to toothpaste, is also suffering from the drop in oil, its
biggest export. Traders are betting that there's an 89 percent
probability that Venezuela won't make good on its debts over the next
five years, according to credit-default swaps data compiled by
Bloomberg.
"I don't think this is a broad policy to support any country that
asks for Chinese help," Steffen Reichold, an economist at Stone Harbor
Investment Partners in New York, said in an e-mail. "Several countries
are in a tight spot and the Chinese are offering to help. That buys them
some goodwill and influence, and promotes the use of the yuan."
- Bloomberg
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