Predicting the unpredictable

Most of us know what happened in the past. So, we do not expect an astrologer to tell us what happened unless we wish to test his knowledge. We also know what we do in the present. For instance, you decide to watch your favourite television program. You switch on the television and settle down to do so. As such even the present does not pose a problem to us. But the problem begins when we wish to know what is in store for us in the near or distant future.

Astrologers and soothsayers have a field day because most people want to know their future. Fortune tellers come in different forms. Some of them claim to have studied the science of astrology locally or in India. They claim to have doctorates from universities. They are ready to cast your horoscope and tell you what will happen to you in 10 or 20 years from now. They predict examination or election results.

Most people in Sri Lanka and India have implicit faith in astrology. Astrologers are consulted when a child is born. Other occasions we consult them are marriage, illness, employment, foreign travel and how we would fare in competitions.

Astrologers

Prior to the recently concluded Presidential election, many leading astrologers predicted the victory of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and the incumbent President Maithripala Sirisena. They were vehemently marketing their predictions to unsuspecting members of the public. However, when the results were announced those who predicted the victory of former President Rajapaksa had to hang their heads in shame. None of them explained why their predictions went haywire.

Now the dust has settled and the so-called astrologers are trotting out lame excuses. A leading astrologer who predicted the victory of former President Rajapaksa confessed that even Homer nods. Most people are likely to forget their unrealistic predictions and consult them again because Sri Lanka is a fertile ground for gullible people.

In the fifth century CE Romans too had the desire to know what was in store for them. As there were no astrologers, they turned to philosophers to know their future. The Roman philosopher Anicius Boethius (c. 480-525) said only God knows what we are going to do in the future. Although he was trained in the Platonist tradition of philosophy, Boethius was a staunch Christian.

Taj Mahal

Like all Christians, Boethius believed that God knows everything, not only the past and the present, but also the future. When you decide to go for a walk in the evening, God knows it. If you plan to visit the Taj Mahal, God knows it. It seems, therefore, that you are not really free to choose to go for a walk because that would conflict with what God already knows.

Boethius, however, solved the problem in a different way. He said what you are planning to do in the future can be known to God in different ways. For instance, most animals have an instinct of what would happen in the immediate future. It is said that most animals fled when the tsunami hit the coastal belt in 2004. A human does not have a well-developed instinct but he has the faculty of reason to sense impending disasters and to take precautions.

Boethius said we live in the flow of time. Therefore, we know what happened in the past. Similarly, we know what is happening now. We do not need anyone else to predict the present events. But do we know what will happen to us tomorrow or 10 years from now? Any rational person will agree that we cannot know the outcome of uncertain future events.

Flow of time

According to Boethius, God is not in the flow of time. He lives in an eternal present and knows the past, present and future in the same way that we know the present. And just as my knowledge that you are reading this column now does not interfere with your freedom to stop, so too God’s knowledge of our future actions does not stop you from being free.

Some modern philosophers, however, are not convinced by Boethius’s argument. They say that since you have not yet decided whether to stop reading this column, there is simply nothing to be known about it. Even God who is all knowing does not and cannot know whether you will stop reading or not.