MR running out of nomination options?

Sirisena shuts UPFA door :

JHU wants more prep time for polls :

20th A 'a ghost':

by Rasika Jayakody

When President Maithripala Sirisena held a special discussion with party leaders of the UPFA following the weekly Cabinet meeting last week, it was quite clear to everyone that he was hell-bent on shooting down the General Election 'hopes' of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa.

"There is no one who knows more about Mahinda Rajapaksa than I do. There is no way we can work together. My political journey is not with him. So, don't talk about his candidature," President Sirisena told the party leaders of the UPFA at the meeting.

This remark came when they argued that former President Mahinda Rajapaksa should be the Prime Ministerial candidate of the UPFA coalition at the forthcoming Parliamentary election.

Some party leaders stated that the UPFA should join the electoral fray with the sole intention of defeating the UNP which was instrumental in making Maithripala Sirisena, the present leader of the UPFA, the President of the country.

The UPFA party leaders said that they had no issue with Maithripala Sirisena being the President. But, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was at the receiving end of their criticism. They said they were not ready to make way for a government led by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. They called on President Sirisena to nominate Mahinda Rajapaksa as the Prime Ministerial candidate of the UPFA and usher in a 'Maithri-Mahinda' era. But, the body language of the President clearly showed that he was not willing to consider this proposal even as a remote possibility.

"He will use the bullet to achieve what he could not achieve with ballot," President Sirisena said indicating he was not even willing to accommodate the idea. It was clear to everyone that he was even opposed to granting nomination to the former President to contest the election under the SLFP ticket.

Shattered hopes

That shattered the hopes of those who wanted to make Rajapaksa the Prime Ministerial candidate of the UPFA.

Those who want to make Mahinda Rajapaksa the Prime Ministerial candidate of the UPFA now have only one option. They can convene the Executive Committee of the UPFA and present a motion in this regard.

The UPFA Executive Committee comprises representatives of coalition partners of the UPFA and they - to a great extent - support the candidature of former President Rajapaksa. But, President Maithripala Sirisena, who shot down the idea at the last meeting, will chair the Executive Committee meeting of the UPFA, in his capacity as the Chairman of the coalition.

Therefore, he is in a position to flatly refuse any such proposal coming from other political parties of the UPFA.

Leader of the Democratic Left Front, Vasudeva Nanayakkara, told the Sunday Observer that the Executive Committee meeting would be the last resort of the group pushing for former President Rajapaksa's candidature.

However, he admitted that President Maithripala Sirisena, as the Chairman of the coalition, has significant influence over the decision-making process of the UPFA.

"If all our attempts fail to make Mahinda Rajapaksa the Prime Ministerial candidate of the UPFA, we will form a separate front to contest the election with Mahinda Rajapaksa as its leader," Nanayakkara said.

Such a move will turn the next election into a three-cornered fight and the vote-base of the SLFP will be divided among the traditional SLFP and the group supporting former President Rajapaksa. That will play into the hands of the UNP whose election machinery is in full swing following the last presidential election.

President Maithripala Sirisena's firm stance on former President Rajapaksa has compelled the SLFP MPs who were flirting with the pro-Rajapaksa campaign to make a move fast. They now have to decide whether they want to remain in the SLFP or leave the party to contest the Parliamentary election under a different political coalition.

New alignments

Informed sources of the SLFP told the Sunday Observer that a group of MPs who earlier supported the former President are now in the process of aligning themselves with President Maithripala Sirisena. It is at this point that one can assess the 'true strength' of former President Rajapaksa who boasts about the 5.8 million votes he obtained at the last presidential election.

Meanwhile, some seniors of the UPFA, including its General Secretary, Susil Premajayantha, have called on President Maithripala Sirisena to form a caretaker government led by the UPFA before the dissolution of Parliament. They had said the President should take immediate measures to expel the UNP, which only has 46 seats in Parliament, from the Government.

Over the past few days, several seniors of the SLFP have held discussions with President Sirisena in this regard. The President, however, had not encouraged the idea.

Meanwhile, in a great balancing act, President Sirisena appointed four MPs as ministers of the national unity government.

This move came against a backdrop where some seniors of the UPFA were pushing for a caretaker government led by the UPFA before the election. By doing so, President Sirisena ensured that the UPFA gets a fair share in the national unity government, led by the UNP. At the same time, it is an indication that President Sirisena may dissolve Parliament during the second week of June.

The 'No Confidence' motion against Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was another hot topic among political circles over the past few days. Although the no confidence motion was the brainchild of the group supporting former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, a sizable proportion of SLFP Parliamentarians too have extended their support to the motion.

Parliamentarians of the SLFP have extended their support to the no-confidence motion mainly due to political exigencies.

"The Parliamentary election is around the corner and we, the SLFP, need solid slogans to draw the support of our members. Our supporters at the grassroots level will not support us if we show them that we engage in conciliatory politics with the UNP," a senior Parliamentarian of the SLFP, who wished to remain anonymous, told the Sunday Observer on Friday.

"That is why a large number of SLFP MPs, who do not belong to the pro-Rajapaksa camp, have extended their support to the no-confidence motion. If we soft-pedal on this, our traditional supporters will opt to support the pro-Rajapaksa group at the next election and that will weaken the Sri Lanka Freedom Party," he said.

However, this school of thought among the seniors of the SLFP is not in line with that of President Maithripala Sirisena and former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga who firmly believe that the party should form a national government with the UNP after the Parliamentary election.

Political observers say that striking a balance between those two schools of thought is crucial for the Sri Lanka Freedom Party at this juncture.

This difference of opinion within the SLFP was reflected at the Cabinet briefing last week when a journalist posed a question about the no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Wickremesinghe.

Cabinet spokesman Dr. Rajitha Senaratne is a Parliamentarian representing the SLFP and he said the no-confidence motion had nothing to do with his party.

"The no-confidence motion is coming from Abhayaramaya and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party has nothing to do with it," Minister Rajitha Senaratne said.

When the matter was raised at the weekly Cabinet briefing last week, President Maithripala Maithripala responded firmly, expressing his displeasure over the no-confidence motion. "I should ask the UPFA whether it wants to proceed with the no-confidence motion or the electoral reforms," President Sirisena said.

The United National Party's take on the no-confidence motion is interesting. Although its party leader is at the receiving end of the no-confidence motion, the UNP considers it as a blessing in disguise. They are of the belief that the no-confidence motion will only ensure the early dissolution of Parliament.

UNP's sentiments

The UNP, at this point, is desperate for dissolution of Parliament as they think holding a Parliamentary election at this juncture is advantageous to the party.

"The UPFA says it has the majority in Parliament. So, ask them to present the no-confidence motion and get it passed in Parliament," Minister and Leader of the House Lakshman Kiriella told the Sunday Observer on Thursday.

When the Minister made that remark, he echoed the collective sentiment of the Parliamentary group of the UNP with regard to the no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Electoral reforms

"Electoral reforms are like a ghost in an old mansion. Some are intrigued by it. Some fear it. But, no one knows what it really is although they keep talking about it," a senior Minister of the Cabinet said.

"Everyone has agreed that the next Parliamentary election will be held under the present electoral system. The General Elections after that will be held after six years and we have ample time to arrive at a consensus on electoral reforms. What is the logic behind this inordinate haste?" he queried.

At the last Cabinet meeting on Wednesday, a summary was presented by the Cabinet sub-committee on electoral reforms. The summary, according to Cabinet sources, included 15 main points and they encapsulated core views expressed by different political parties with regard to electoral reforms and the 20th Amendment.

However, it was clear that there was no agreement among members of Cabinet with regard to the number of seats in Parliament under the new electoral system. Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) leader Rauff Hakeem was opposed to the proposal to elect 160 MPs from single member constituencies, five from multi-member constituencies, 31 according to the Proportional Representation System and 59 from the National List.

Some members of the Cabinet who represented ethnic minorities were of the view that some of their recommendations have not been included in the summary presented to the Cabinet by the committee.

As a result, there were heated arguments during the Cabinet meeting between SLMC Leader Rauff Hakeem and Power and Energy Minister Patali Champika Ranawaka. During this heated verbal battle, a senior Cabinet minister representing the UNP said some elements were trying to use electoral reforms as a 'Trojan horse' against the government.

It was clear that he was alluding to Minister Patali Champika and JHU Parliamentarian Athuraliye Rathana Thera who were exerting pressure on the Government to adopt electoral reforms hastily. The Minister said the government was not in a position to do so, especially in a context where minority parties had raised their concerns over some recommendations coming under the 20th Amendment.

Missing consensus

A consensus on the 20th Amendment is still not in the picture.

Rathana Thera has claimed that he will not allow President Sirisena to dissolve Parliament without adopting electoral reforms. Rathana Thera pledged to conduct demonstrations pushing for electoral reforms and to prevent dissolution of Parliament. Interestingly, the Jathika Hela Urumaya, of which Rathana Thera and Minister Patali Champika Ranawaka are stalwarts, have only two seats in Parliament.

It is now quite evident that the Jathika Hela Urumaya, a stakeholder of the common opposition during the last presidential election, is now attempting to override the entire process pertaining to electoral reforms.

In reality, the Jathika Hela Urumaya wants more time before the Parliamentary election as the party is exploring options. They will, in all likelihood, contest under the UPFA and the party wants to consolidate its position in the coalition. They consider the 20th Amendment as a valid excuse to get the Parliamentary election postponed.

The JHU too, like other political parties, is engaging in 'petty party politics' and are not in a position to take a moral high ground on this matter.

Over the past 12 years, Parliament could not arrive at an agreement on electoral reforms. The committee headed by Dinesh Gunawardena was appointed in 2003 to look into the matter and they held discussion with a large number of political parties.

The committee recommended reforms to the present system leading towards a mixed system of a combination of first-past-the-post and proportional representation systems.

But, over the past 12 years, the country's legislature failed to adopt the electoral system proposed by the Dinesh Gunawardena committee due to various differences of opinion. For four years, the UPFA had two thirds majority in the House and Dinesh Gunawardena, Patali Champika Ranawaka and Athuraliye Rathana Thera were also stalwarts in the same government. Therefore, it is naïve to believe that political parties will arrive at a consensus on electoral reforms within the next two weeks.