Dissolution dilemma

*Opposition wants Ranil ousted

*No move to impeach President Sirisena

*President to attend UNHRC sessions

by Dilrukshi Handunetti

Speaker Chamal Rajapaksa Pic: ANCL Library

There is significant discomfort being a minority government dependent on a majority opposition’s support for survival. The day-to-day affairs of the government has become vexatious, as the ruling United National Party (UNP) is now finding out.

By Friday (5) morning, the writing was on the wall. The UPFA that has been clamouring for a majority-led government, eventually mustered 112 signatures in support of a no confidence motion against Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.

The motion was submitted to the Secretary General of Parliament with a request for early inclusion in the Order Book. The move came, as the shaky government focused all its attention on the last milepost before the dissolution: The passage of the 20th Amendment to the Constitution, which envisages sweeping electoral reforms.

The current impasse within the House clearly does not permit the passage of any laws, without some political bloodshed, unless there is explicit agreement. This was best showcased when the opposition denounced the minority government for what it termed its ‘lack of legitimacy’, launching campaigns against the UNP-led administration, at a time when both President Maithripala Sirisena and the UNP Government remained focused on the enactment of the 19th Amendment.

This oppositional move, which was largely to create a new platform for former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, nearly defeated the collaborative attempt to enact the 19th Amendment, in a bid to demonstrate as to who was at the controls, as opposed to the meaningful utilization of a parliamentary majority.

The majoritarian approach of the UPFA continues to cause difficulties, and now, likely to be guillotined is the rather mysterious 20th Amendment to the Constitution, which is the last presidential priority before the poll. Yet, the attendant difficulties are such that an exasperated Speaker Chamal Rajapaksa last week remarked that the only solution was to dissolve parliament as it seemed impossible to move forward. But the government still thinks otherwise, for the moment.

A confident UNP

The call for a fresh election is much to the UNP’s taste, though not so much to the UPFA’s.

Many in the green camp are of the view “as they bask in the afterglow of a presidential victory, secured through the mobilization of the UNP’s once disgruntled and/or dormant vote base and the party machinery” that victory would be theirs if a snap general election is announced. They also feel, still being the early days, that the UNP is in a strong position to face the electorate.

However, this confidence, is not reflected in the actions of the UPFA, led by the president’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). A month ago, the call was to recognize former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, as the prime ministerial candidate. Attempts were made to arm-twist President Sirisena to acknowledge his predecessor, this time as his prime ministerial candidate, only to be firmly told that it was not an option.

This agitation campaigns and the demand to recognize Rajapaksa as the prime ministerial candidate has dissipated by now, perhaps with the dawning of the realization that their own chances of securing nomination at the forthcoming election would further suffer, if they were to persist on a candidate disliked by the current leadership.

What the electorate is not likely to forget is that in the process of driving a pro-Rajapaksa campaign, in the eyes of the average SLFPer, the dissidents are seen as being adversarial to President Maithripala Sirisena, the current leader of the SLFP. In addition, it is viewed as an oppositional move to the government led by Sirisena, broadly speaking, besides being an endorsement of alleged corruption for which the Rajapaksas became known.

As Deputy Minister of Social Services, Ranjan Ramanayake quipped last Thursday at a UNP media briefing, “That lot (meaning pro-Rajapaksa faction within the SLFP), continue to oppose their own president. They almost defeated the 19th Amendment and were forced to by civil society groups to act in a responsible manner, without supporting corruption.”

However, the UPFA’s call appears quite different. On Friday, when three UPFA frontliners met foreign correspondents in Colombo, the call was for the formation of a majority-led government and by no means, the dissolution of parliament.

Three top leaders UPFA leaders, namely Prof. G.L. Peiris, Dinesh Gunawardene and Dullus Alahapperuma offered their new argument that the UPFA desired the formation of a majority government but not the dissolution of parliament. In fact, Prof. Peiris told journalists that “dissolution should be the last option”.

They also argued, it was to demonstrate their majority, among other reasons, that a no faith against Prime Minister Ranil wickremesinghe was submitted to Parliament.

“We enjoy the majority and therefore have the right to legislate,” they claimed, insisting that Wickremesinghe’s government lacked legitimacy, including the right to introduce a 20th Amendment to the Constitution. “It can be done smoothly and effectively only by a government which enjoys a majority in the House and the SLFP/UPFA has the required majority,” they chorused. On the other hand, though ready to push buttons and attempt to cause instability in the government, the UPFA is also clear about not taking on President Sirisena, who, on occasion, has faced the wrath of his own forces, labeled as a ‘UNP lackey’ and ‘a key actor in an international conspiracy’. Such honorifics are not repeated anymore, as the UPFA members look to their own political future in the splintered rainbow coalition, though barely managing to contain the resentment towards the president’s refusal to create an exclusive platform for his own party, the SLFP.

No faith against PM

However, having tried the prime ministerial candidate card and failed, the UPFA now uses the stalling tactic of a no confidence motion, which some consider a temporary distraction, as the House readies for its dissolution. There are many who feel that, as with the 19th Amendment, the UPFA would not wish to be tainted by the allegation of actively preventing the introduction of vital electoral reforms.

Meanwhile, the UPFA leaders, confident of being able to successfully adopt the no faith in parliament, insists that in such an event, as is customary, the Prime Minister and the Cabinet should resign, paving the way for the president to call upon a person who, in his opinion, commands majority support in parliament, to form the government.

As for the UNP, according to party insiders, the motion would to come to pass as the House is to be dissolved in a matter of days. “We do not fear an election. The government’s scorecard reflects serious achievements achieved within a matter of four months. Much has been achieved though much, as always remains to be done. The achievements based on a reformist agenda and economic relief offered to the people will ensure a UNP victory,” a confident UNP Secretary, Kabir Hashim said.

For the UPFA, the preferred path is the formation of a government using the majority in parliament. Having ganged up against President Sirisena, for all possible failures, who has managed to end the fear psychosis and unrepentant politicization at all levels, the SLFPers will have to bear not one but two crosses: Their failure to demonstrate loyalty to Sirisena at least after he was appointed leader of the SLFP and the legacy of massive corruption by the Rajapaksa administration. These twin reasons would make many to think twice before seeking a mandate, with confidence.

As for President Sirisena, the no faith hanging like the Sword of Damocles is the least of his concerns, as he prepares to announce fresh general elections. Instead, he desires at least the tabling of the 20th amendment before dissolving parliament, a wish he frankly discussed with civil society members last week, at the Presidential Secretariat.

During the meeting, the civil society group called for an early election to overcome the political uncertainty that prevails in the country, a sentiment endorsed by the president. The civil society representatives reminded the president that the government was expected to initiate a 100-day Reform Program after which, the dissolution was expected, in the absence of a clear and functional majority.

To expedite the process of introducing the 20th Amendment, President Sirisena took the imitative last week, meeting leaders of the political parties that supported his candidature. He has also scheduled a special Cabinet meeting on June 8, to try and break the deadlock.

He explained the need to have the amendment swiftly moved “the crucial next step of what he has promised in his reformist agenda” and if it was not possible to have it passed in Parliament, at least it should be tabled, prior to a dissolution.

It is learnt that one of the architects of the Unity Government, Ven. Maduluwawe Sobhitha Thera, among other well-wishers, has advised the president that it would be the best course of action, if there was no possibility to pass the proposed amendment.

While there has been general agreement on a quick dissolution if the amendment does not go through, Ven. Athuraliye Rathana Thera of the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) fame has held a contrary view and urged the government to ensure the passage of the proposed amendment before announcing an election.

“The difficulties must be worked out, as done before with the 19th Amendment,” the Thera has reportedly said, insisting that too was part of the January 8 mandate.

However, there appears to be little appreciation for such thinking, among the rank and file of both the UNP and the SLFP.

The UNP in its overconfidence expect a clear mandate and the UPFA, though much less secure in going before the people amidst massive probes into alleged corruption by its leaders, also show no genuine desire to work within the framework of a national government, post election. Their failure to speak in one voice, add to the confusion and what falls off the table is the combined reformist agenda, the platform on which a new administration was built.

Sirisena to Geneva

However, it is no surprise, despite the domestic confusion, that the international community had come out with words of praise for President Sirisena for his political tight-rope walk.

The UN Secretary General as well as the US State Department, last week lauded Sirisena’s many moves to restore democracy through a transitional program.

One of the biggest political clouds hanging over Sri Lanka had been its human rights record. The Sri Lankan government has already given an undertaking to the United Nations human rights body, the UNHRC, that Sri Lanka would investigate allegations of human rights violations in the final phase of the war through a domestic mechanism, and stalled the tabling of a preliminary report this March.

It is in this backdrop that President Sirisena informed the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, during their conversation that he intends attending the UNHRC sessions in September.It is also by when, the current administration has promised to launch a credible local investigation with expertise drawn from the UN experts, to ensure justice.

Sirisena’s election this January was followed by frenzied lobbying by Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera and the team, which led to the successful postponement of the presentation of a preliminary report on alleged war crimes to September, on the firm understanding that the island would by them have a credible domestic investigative mechanism introduced.At present, there is no such a mechanism, though the Maxwell Paranagama Commission on Disappearances is probing disappearances. However, this presidential undertaking indicates that the president would have, by then established a domestic inquiry and will be ready to respond, with a new government in office.

Meanwhile, this week is bound to be truly politically decisive, with the dissolution of parliament being a strong possibility. It will also pose the greatest test to the political experiment ‘the combined administration’ to the warring political factions within the SLFP and also measure the UNP regained confidence.