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| Sunday, 30 January 2005 |
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Polls in Iraq today Globescan by M. P. Muttiah Iraqis go to polls today to elect a 275-member National Assembly, the task of which would be to debate and adopt a new Constitution. They would also elect members of 18 provincial assemblies and the Autonomous Kurdish Parliament. Iraqi expatriates in 14 countries cast their votes on January 28th and 29th. Modern Iraq, which was known to the ancient world as Mesopotamia, was created from the ruins of the Ottoman Empire in 1920 by Britain, under a League of Nations Mandate. Iraq became independent in 1932 and the League's mandate ended. It became a Republic in 1958, when a military coup overthrew the Hashemite king. Saddam Hussein became President in 1979. US-led occupation forces invaded Iraq in March 2003, on the pretext that this country possessed weapons of mass destruction'. However, US President, George W. Bush, defended the occupation and the ousting of Saddam Hussein, the elected President of the Iraqi people. Since the US occupation, violence has become a daily occurrence, and the United States, Britain and other countries that sent troops to Iraq, have lost about 1,500 of their soldiers. A further 9,300 were wounded in battle and another 17,000 non-combatant sick or injured, of whom 80 per cent do not return to their units. About 18,000 civilians have also been killed. According to New York Times, one in six soldiers in Iraq show symptoms of major depression or post-traumatic disorder.It said, quoting an expert, "There is a train coming packed with people who are going to need help for the next 35 years." The United States handed over the administration to an Interim-Government led by a former CIA Agent, Iyad Allawi, with more than 150,000 troops defending his government. The election of the National Assembly today would replace the US-supported puppet regime and appoint a cabinet that would oversee the drafting of a new Constitution, and hold elections to choose a new parliament by the end of this year. There would be some 40,000 polling booths in 9,000 stations, some in about 14 countries, including the United States where some one million had registered. The highest number of registered voters, about 40,000, were in Iran. In all, 256 groups and individuals contest the elections, and most of the parties have formed 33 coalition lists. Ayotollah Sistani's Shiite faction formed a 16-party United Iraqi Alliance, consisting of majority Shiites and a section of Sunnis, Kurds and Turks. In Kurdistan, both the main Jalal Talabani-led Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, and Massoud Barzani-led Kurdistan Democratic Party, with nine other Kurdish parties formed Kurdistan Alliance, which is set to win most seats in Kurdish area, which has one-fifth of Iraqi population. The once all-powerful Sunni Arabs,amounting to about 20 per cent of the population who are also one-fifth of the population would not, or are unwilling to vote in the elections. An alliance of Sunni parties led by the Islamic Party of Iraq. announced that it would not take part in the elections. Militant Sunni groups, such as Ansar al-Sunna, have threatened to kill anyone who votes or helps organise the elections. 17 Sunni parties sought a six-month postponement of elections, and another 15 Sunni groups called for an outright boycott. Sunnis view the elections to be detrimental to them, and a threat to their 80-year old existence. Therefore, the overall results of the election, would be in favour of Shiites and Kurds. As the Shiites are the majority, it is natural that they would dominate the National Assembly, doing away with Sunnis. Therefore, the Constituent Assembly, that would have a Shiite and UIA majority could result in a decisive role in the forming of the constitution. According to analysts, it could get 138 out of 275 seats. Though, Afghanistan President, Hamid Karzai, urged Iraqis to follow his country's example by defying Abu Musab al-Zarakawi's threat, the situation in Iraq is totally different from the one that prevailed in Kabul, where Taliban militia and their al-Qaeda allies failed to mobilise their groups to disrupt the elections, and the turnout was higher than expected. But, in Iraq the daily killings, suicide bombings continue unabated. Under these circumstances, it is said that the four of the 18 provinces, the election might not take place today. These four violence-prone provinces are dominated by Sunnis. But, European Union's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, has predicted a `disaster' with no Sunni representation in the country. The Iraqi political scenario is now dominated by important issues such as the future of the US forces in Iraq, the prospects for an Iraqi Army, the role of the Sunni community in the constitution-making process, the possibility of national reconciliation of Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds and others and in the background of Iraq's future, and the role of Iraq's neighbours, Iran, Syria and others, the extent to which the Kurd's aspiration for self-rule is satisfied within the boundaries of a future Iraqi state. As for the US forces, the United Iraq Alliance led by Shiite religious leader Grand Ali- al-Sistani has urged a timetable for withdrawing the 150,000 troops, the maintenance cost of which is one billion US dollars a week. The US Ambassador, John Negroponte, dismissed the suggestions that parties that would win today's election might force an early withdrawal of US troops. The Iraqi war has already cost $130 billion, and is expected to rise to over $200 billion. The Bush administration seeks the Congress about 480 billion in new funding for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. The new budget request would bring the funding for military operations and equipment close to a record $105 billion. Veteran Middle East analyst, Patrick Seale, says that the question that is being asked is whether the neo-conservatives in Washington, who pressed for war, still believe that they can turn Iraq and its oil resources into a pro-American, Israeli-friendly client state. Will the American administration realise that, the resistance to the American occupation is getting stronger day by day? Seale says, "the US military presence in Iraq is part of the problem rather than of the solution. ``An outside power cannot easily impose a political system on a country against the wishes of its people.``Elections are meaningless in the absence of some form of national reconciliation." Whatever the outcome of the results, it would be the beginning of a process, where the US troops would leave Iraq, or climb into helicopters from the roof of the US embassy, as happened in Saigon. |
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