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by Ranga Jayasuriya

North-Eastern votes, specially of the Tamils, will be crucial if Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe is to have an edge in the Presidential race.

Wickremesinghe has the distinction of being perhaps the only Sinhala politician whose relationship with the North-East electorate has not yet severed, though strains are already there.

He secured a Ceasefire Agreement, (CFA) of which, whatever the LTTE would say to the contrary, Tamils are the main beneficiaries- of course, the CFA could not lead to a fast track rebuilding in the war-ravaged North-East, but the fact that it halted a ruinous war of which Tamils were the main victims is more than sufficient for the North-East Tamil voters to have a soft corner for Wickremesinghe.

Having done his arithmetic, Wickremesinghe is aware that any electoral gains in the North-East could mitigate any losses he would face in the South.

The UNP Presidential hopeful has already diverted a reasonable part of his campaign energy to the North-East. He has concluded a campaign tour in the East, targeting the Muslim vote, in particular, where he pledged a separate Muslim delegation for future peace talks with the LTTE, addressing one main concern of Eastern Muslims.

Muslims, however, have a love-hate relationship with Wickremesinghe, who during the short-lived tenure as Prime Minister, let them down, giving into his LTTE pressure against a separate Muslim delegation.

That was despite the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress being a constituent party of the United National Front Administration and the failure to address Muslim concerns, saw Rauff Hakeem losing his political clout in the East.

In what seems to be a neck and neck Presidential race (not withstanding the daily results of manipulated SMS voting) every vote matters.

Having seen his rival_Wickremesinghe taking the upper hand in the campaign battle in the East - which according to the voter register of 2004 has 952,936 registered voters - Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse could not withstand temptation despite security warnings of an increased LTTE threat on his life.

Rajapakse last week followed suit, visiting the East, addressing a campaign rally in the Muslim majority area of Kinniya.

Rajapakse's election strategy is to present himself as representing the united front of the South; indeed, he has made himself a rallying point of a number of political forces, ranging from the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, Jathika Hela Urumaya, Liberal Party, Dew Gunasekara of the Communist Party, Dr. Tissa Witarana and the Lanka Sama Samaja Party, Ferial Ashraff's National Unity Alliance, Vasudeva Nanayakkara and a breakaway group of Up Country People's Front.

It is that image of him that Rajapakse presents to the minority voters: A common candidate who can rally the majority community, but can still accommodate ethnic minorities.

In Kinniya, he echoed LTTE Theoretician Anton Balasingham, when he said, that the East suffered a double destruction, first by the ethnic conflict, then by the tsunami- It was Balasingham who referred to the Boxing Day tsunami as the "second tsunami, first tsunami being the destruction by the army".

Rajapakse had an impressive development package for the East, which included Express ways linking the East with Colombo and Tangalle, development of Oluvil Harbour, agricultural export zone in Ampara and a new provincial office for Ampara and Batticaloa districts. Rajapakse should be mindful of the concerns of the minority communities about his electoral alliance with the JVP and JHU.

Campaigning in the East, his primary concern should have been to allay fears, portraying himself as the only one who could get the fractured southern polity united for a pluralistic Sri Lanka.

In Kinniya, he sounded a proponent of civil rights. He echoed minority concerns of the discrimination at the hands of majoritarian policies, when he described second class treatment to a citizen because of his ethnic origin, religion or language as "disgraceful and morally repugnant".

These are the troubled waters of the country's ethnic relations, which only a few politicians would dare to brave.

Rajapakse, speaking at Kinniya, portrayed him to be one, perhaps the only one who could campaign and get things done for the well-being of everybody of all communities. Because, he got a sound backing in the south.

"I have strength, commitment and courage to do it," he said

If the term, South, is a reference to the seven Sinhala majority provinces, it is too early to comment on his vote base.

But, Rajapakse has already got a sound footing down south, which holds a considerable sway over public opinion in the country.

Rajapakse should be mindful that his alliance with the JVP and JHU could drive away the minority voters from him, unless he takes extra-precautionary measures to allay the fears of the minority. He needs to concentrate on the minority voters, both on their day to day living as well as their concerns on marginalisation, most of which stem from the bureaucratic failure to ensure equal treatment, even after subsequent legislative decisions rectified the previous mistakes of ethnic relations.

He needs to present his electoral alliance with the Sinhala buddhist nationalist elements as a strength rather than a burden to achieve a political solution to the ethnic conflict and other issues of the troubled ethnic relations.

Rajapakse's electoral alliance itself a rare mix of diverse political ideologies, ranging from the main stream SLFP, ultra-nationalist JVP and JHU, die- hard marxists and proponents of minority rights like Vasudeva Nanayakkara, former Tamil militants of the EPDP, Eastern province based National Unity Alliance - Rajapakse told a rally in Paduwasnuwara that there were 25 political groups backing him.

A unique kind of unity in diversity, his camp would argue.

That is a delicate mixture indeed. But,It will take some time to see, out of the constituent parties of his alliance who will really call the shots.

If, the JVP and JHU to impose their will on Rajapakse, the worst fears of the ethnic minorities would come true.

To the Prime Minister, his electoral alliance itself is a delicate balancing of his loyalty to the principles of his party SLFP and JVP, which now has turned to be a driving force in his election campaign.

Rajapakse's strength lies in the country's rural electorate, which is estimated to be nearly 75 per cent of the total registered voters.

He has cultivated an image of a grass root politician who could move at ease with the rural populace, a vocabulary easily understandable to the villager, understanding of the pulse of the common man and perhaps more than anything else a growing regional support base in the South.

Rajapakse could identify himself with the rural populace. In short, he could portray himself as "I am one of you" and get his message easily across the rural voters.

When set against Ranil Wickremesinghe, all these stand for Rajapakse's favour. The Opposition Leader is also aware of the loopholes of his campaign strategy of the previous Parliamentary election, where his trump card of the peace process could not deliver goods in the face of fierce campaigning by the PA-JVP alliance, which relegated his achievements on the peace front, while highlighting its minuses and successfully marketed its opinion to the electorate.

Voters in general, hit by high cost of living and shocked by allegations of corruption charges levied against some members of the Wickremesinghe Administration were not impressed by Wickremesinghe's achievements on the peace front.

Wickremesinghe seems to be aware of these loopholes. He has redesigned his campaign strategy, striking a balance between the peace front and the day to day life of the ordinary voter; he has offered a price ceiling for some essential food items, minimum price for paddy and dairy farmers, debt relief for farmers, a fertiliser subsidy and a welfare program where by beneficiaries will receive a monthly financial assistance ranging from 1,000 rupees to 4,000.

These are new additions of the public policy of Wickremesinghe's new UNP, which, hitherto, believed in market force to lead the economy. Over emphasis on the market forces was a recipe for disaster for the UNP. The strategy failed, thereby failing the government.

Wickremesinghe addressing a rally at Rambukkana pledged to unite all Sri Lankans. At Redigama, Jayanthipura he said the final solution to the ethnic question will be put for a referendum. At another rally at Kaduwela, he said he was a politician who talked straight forward, which would not impress some people.

On the other side, Rajapakse's one main challenge will be winning the confidence of the private sector.

Wickremesinghe is generally the darling of the business community.

It was Rajapakse who as the Labour Minister of the first Cabinet of Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga strove to bring - but sadly failed under the tremendous pressure by interested groups - a Workers Charter.

Rajapakse's Senior Economic Advisor, Ajith Nivard Cabraal says Rajapakse would set up 12 export processing zones, 325 large industries,i.e. one factory for each AGA division.

Rajapakse pledges to enhance foreign investments, develop SMEs, set up national industries and develop tourism.

Rajapakse remains to be the activist he used to be. Last week, he met a delegation from the People's Committee to protect Eppawala Phosphate Deposit to pledge them that "he would not sell it to foreigners". The Eppawala phosphate deposit was a watershed of the resurgence of political activism of the SLFP and the old left in the early 90s. Rajapakse is revisiting it.

Both Rajapakse and Wickremesinghe have set their economic growth targets sky high - Rajapakse's is 8 per cent and Wickremesinghe's is 10 per cent.

As for Wickermesinghe's target, in recent history, only China and South Korea have maintained a ten percent economic growth. As for Rajapakse's, though most NIC nations have achieved the target, it still remains a distant dream for Sri Lanka.

End piece: The UNP Deputy Secretary General Tissa Attanayake last week renewed calls for a Competent Authority for the State Media. Attanayake says the State media is biassed in favour of Mahinda Rajapakse and engaged in character assassination of the Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. Referring to analysis of election coverage by Rupavahini, Attanayake says the state television from October 14-20 has allocated 43 minutes air time in favour of Rajapakse while another 70 minutes have been allocated to "assassinate Wickremesinghe's character.

He says 27 per cent of news bulletins has been in favour of Rajapakse, whereas only 7.5 percent is in favour of Wickremesinghe.

A pathetic situation indeed. But, if the UNP Deputy General Secretary watches private TV channels, he could see that they are no different, perhaps the only difference being their bias is towards Wickremesinghe. That is understandable, given powerful political and commercial interests of the media ownership.

The Centre for Policy Alternatives has come out with an analysis on election coverage by the print media.

The report says Sunday Observer from October 8th to 15 had provided 23.24 square centimetres in favour of Mahinda Rajapakse and 12.88 per centimetres in favour of Ranil Wickremesinghe. And no unfavourable coverage at all to Rajapakse and mere 00.81 square centimetres against Wickremesinghe. Whereas the Leader publications has all unfavourable coverage (48.68 square centimetres) against Rajapakse and no unfavourable coverage at all to Wickremesinghe; ironically this is a paper which is riding high at the Editor's Guild organised media awards.

Mr Attanayake could see most of the private media arenot impartial.

It seems as one cynic said : press freedom is limited to those who own one.

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