Failed suicide mission and clich‚s of Prabha's address

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On the sunny Friday morning, the Secretary of Defence, Gotabhya Rajapaksa, in his bullet-proof entourage, was heading for the weekly security council meeting at the Temple Trees. His car was flanked by two motorcycles and several other Defender escort vehicles.

The Dharmapala Mawatha, which the convoy was travelling was frequented by several VIPs. This meant the security was generally tight in the area and a lane was reserved for the travel of the VIPs.

As the Defence Secretaries convoy reached the Piththala junction, the commandoes in the Defence Secretary's escort noticed an "unusual movement' of a tri-shaw coming from the opposite direction, according to security forces sources quoting soldiers in the escort.

A pillion rider drove his cycle to block the path of the advancing tri-show. An escort jeep moved forward to cover the Secretary of Defence's vehicle from an impact of a possible blast.

The role of the VIP protection teams is a highly demanding task. These men, most of the time, are the unsung heroes who risk their lives and limb to save the high profile individuals, whom they are entrusted to protect.

Explosion

As the Pillion rider and the escort vehicle blocked the path of the three wheeler, an explosion followed. The three wheeler exploded about 15 foot from the VIP convoy, engulfing a near by vehicle in a ball of fire.

The Defence Secretary survived unscathed.

An hour later he was seen on the TV in an emotional reunion with his brother, President Mahinda Rajapaksa.

Fourteen injured, including eleven security forces personnel in the escort were rushed to the hospital. Two soldiers later succumbed to injuries, one after the admission to the National Hospital and the other in a private hospital.

Later in the day the Secretary Defence in a media statement paid tribute to the security forces men who made supreme sacrifice.

"I wish to express my gratitude to the brave soldiers who sacrificed their lives in the face of this attack... I wish speedy recovery to the members of the security forces who were injured in the attack, and thank my security personnel who faced up to the challenge of the assassins."

He went on to say: "...it will never be possible to defeat this great country through the bloody savagery of the cowardly LTTE terrorists."

Sad enough, the abortive Tiger suicide mission coincided with the visit by the Norwegian peace envoy, Jon Hansen Bauer who arrived in the island on Thursday.

Mr Bauer's visit is crisis diplomacy which comes in the wake of the LTTE Leader's speech last week, where he left many a question unanswered about the future conduct of the LTTE as far as the peace process is concerned. Now like a bad omen, the visiting envoy is greeted with a suicide exposition in the heart of the Capital. This could signal a new shift of the LTTE's strategy.

Perhaps, one could also argue that this is nothing new for the very fact that the Tigers have a history of assassinations during the ceasefire agreement itself.

The victims and targets range from former Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar, Minister Douglas Devanada, The Commander of Army, Lt Gen. Sarath Fonseka to Major Muthalif.

But, the suicide mission which coincided with the visit of the Norwegian envoy could be a sign of fast disappearing interest of the Tiger leadership in the new peace initiative.

Indeed, the Tiger Chieftain, Veluppillai Prabhakaran, crowded his annual address with many a clich‚ and left many a question on the future strategy of the LTTE unanswered.

He declared "we (LTTE) are at cross roads and that the ceasefire agreement is "defunct."

But, he stopped short of calling it the day for the ceasefire agreement. Nor did he elaborate how he would advanced (his) struggle for an independent state, which he said was the only available option.

LTTE leadership

His remarks compelled the Government to request a verification from the LTTE leadership on whether the Tigers still stood by their commitment to the Ceasefire Agreement.

In other words, does the Tiger chieftain's statement amount to a withdrawal from the ceasefire agreement.

On Tuesday - a day after the annual address by the Tiger chief - the Head of the Scandinavian truce monitors flew to Kilinochchi to meet the Tiger political leader S. P. Thamilselvan.

The Head of the Mission queried whether the Prabhakaran's statement amounted to a withdrawal from the truce agreement.

Thamilselvan replied in the negative.

The Head of the Mission then asked what Prabhakaran meant when he called the ceasefire "defunct".

The reply was that LTTE believed the ceasefire was made "defunct by the military actions of the Government."

Then the Tiger political chief went on to stress that the LTTE's position with regard to the ceasefire agreement was unchanged.

But, as far as the conduct of the LTTE is concerned, the lessons from the history is that Prabhakaran should not be taken by his word. Perhaps the best way to judge the man is what he did not say, but rather implied.

Prabhakaran, indeed, signalled a shift in the Tiger strategy, a shift from negotiations to an stepped up military action.

But, the ground situation has prevented him from pursuing an aggressive military campaign given the fact the LTTE suffered heavily due to its miscalculated military action to overrun Muhamalai-Nagar Kovil Forward Defence lines.

The LTTE has admitted loosing 818 cadres during this year in the battle front. This included 568 men and 250 women cadres.

However according to military estimates, the numbers could be higher and added with the large number of cadres seriously wounded in the fighting, the LTTE would have a tough time in recovering from its losses before planing any fresh offensive.

Given these ground realities, Intelligence source believe that the Tigers would opt to high profile targets through suicide missions, which in the cost-benefit analysis are always favourable to the Tigers.

The lull in the LTTE activities in Colombo was basically because the LTTE operatives have gone underground in the face of stepped up counter espionage operations in the town.

This has disrupted the LTTE networks in the town.

This, however is not a reason for compliancy as these groups are capable of re-organising at the slightest available opportunity, said one senior military official.

There are also signs of a stepped up arms smuggling by the Tigers through the ship to trawler transfer in the deep sea..

Hours before the Tiger Leader delivered his speech, the Navy destroyed a trawler suspected to be engaged in arms smuggling in the seas 50 nautical miles off Udappuwa-Chillaw.

This is the latest in a series of suspected arms smuggling tiger logistic crafts. Norwegian Envoy is set to meet Thamilselvan on Tuesday (05).

Given the direction of developments, the Norwegian envoy will have a tough time convincing Thamilselvan and company of the blessings of peace and we could only hope he will succeed.