Democratisation of Iraq and Middle East peace

US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice's recent talks with Middle East political leaders aimed at drumming-up wide-ranging support for Washington's plans to prop-up its military presence in Iraq by some 20,000 more troops, has apparently drawn a positive response from US allies in the region.

Several Gulf Arab states, Syria and Jordan, for instance, have reportedly backed the plan mainly out of fears that a drastic reduction of the US military presence in Iraq could lead to a dramatic crumbling of the law and order situation there and have the effect of destabilizing their own states on account of the spill over effects the Shia-Sunni bloodletting in Iraq could have.

Therefore, contrary to the expectation that the US troop presence in Iraq would register a phased reduction over the next few months, we could only expect to see a further bolstering of the US military muscle in the increasingly lawless state. All in all, the US military presence in the Gulf would be further intensified, resulting in a heightening of politico-military tensions on account of the radicalizing impact of the US troop presence among the more conservative sections of the region's publics.

Concerns of Iran and Syria

A heightened US military presence in Iraq would not help in assuaging the concerns of Iran and Syria, for instance, who have a considerable stake in the Middle East conflict and have been traditionally opposed to a US military presence in the Gulf region. From this point of view, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani's recent talks with the Syrian political leadership could lead to a reduction of regional tensions and pave the way for a sustained diplomatic dialogue between Iraq and Syria.

The development which could have the farthest reaching consequences for a reduction of tensions in the Middle-East, however, is the current US efforts to get a dialogue underway between the Israeli political leadership and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. It is also profoundly important that Washington is constantly focusing on the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, as an answer to the wasting Middle East conflict. Referring to these fresh efforts at re-launching the Israeli-Palestinian dialogue, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was quoted telling newsmen during her recent visit to the Gulf that she hoped her discussions would lead "to further work on a political horizon... that would lead ultimately to the establishment of a Palestinian state."

Ideal formula

The two state recipe is the ideal formula for a Middle-East settlement, but this idea would need to be "sold" to anti-Western opinion in the region, particularly to the Hamas-led administration in the Palestinian areas, which doesn't recognize the existence of Israel, as a nominal state entity. It would also need to be sold to Syria and Iran, which have been taking a hard line on Middle East issues.

Since much of the tension in the Middle East, derives from the Middle East conflict, the major stake holders in the conflict, would need to aim at a comprehensive settlement which would address the concerns of all parties to the conflict, including Syria, whose antagonism to Israel derives from the seizure by Israel of Syria's Golan Heights, decades ago.

The handing back to the relevant Arab states by Israel of land seized from them by the latter would help greatly in laying the basis for an equitable settlement.

Coming back to troop expansion plans in Iraq by the US, the most effective means of achieving some security for Iraq is to encourage the Maliki administration to put in place a truly power-sharing administration which will prevent the perception from building up among disaffected groups, such as the Sunnis, that they are being marginalized and deprived of power. Thus will the grounds for conflict and lawlessness be eliminated. In other words, a further democratisation of Iraq is called for.

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