Unrest in Nigeria's oil region set to continue through April elections

LAGOS, (AFP)

Unrest in Nigeria's southern oil region the Niger Delta, the theatre of a spate of recent kidnappings, is set to continue through the elections scheduled for April, analysts and security experts say.

"I see violence in the delta staying at the current levels right through these elections", a Lagos-based risk consultant told AFP.

The people of the delta complain that while their region generates 95 percent of Nigeria's foreign currency earnings, they have little to show for this in terms of development or living standards. A leading security contractor cited the country's "North-South sectarian divide between Muslims and Christians", the three biggest ethnic groups vying for power, the "dysfunctional democracy in place," the rampant corruption and the lack of self-determination for, among others, the country's 14 million Ijaw people.

"As long as that situation prevails there is going to be a degree of discontent in the Niger delta", he said.

The region's most prominent armed militant group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), earlier this week released one of the four hostages it was holding but made it very clear that it would hang onto the other three and vowed to intensify its campaign of violence destined to "drive oil companies out of the Niger Delta" and "halt production".

The Nigerian government, which has said it lost some 570 billion naira (around 4.4 billion dollars, 3.5 billion euros) in 2006 oil revenue because of disruptions to production in the Niger delta, appears to be at a loss as to what tactic to adopt next. In August it promised to get tough on hostage-takers. Towards the end of the year the military launched its first "commando operation" to rescue a group of foreign hostages but killed one of them, a Briton, in the attempt. Since then the security forces have become increasingly tight-lipped about events in the Delta.

MEND on Friday said it would take as many hostages as it saw fit and that there was "nothing the Nigerian government can do".

There has been a sharp escalation in violence in the delta since the beginning of 2006 when MEND emerged. In 2006 alone, more than 60 foreigners, mostly oil workers, were kidnapped, and dozens of Nigerians were killed by militants and bandits.

"Because of the success that MEND has achieved what we have seen is a lot of bandwagon jumping, people doing copycat crime. There has been a massive increase in kidnap and ransom", the security contractor noted.

He said that "the army, because of a lack of manpower, a lack of equipment, a lack of leadership, a lack of intelligence, currently lacks the capacity to police the Niger delta. A lot of what they do is reactive and retaliatory".

"All the army can do is escalate violence", agreed the risk consultant.

Geographically the creeks and swamps of the delta are difficult to police, even for the most motivated force. There is therefore a risk, observers say, that Nigeria's aggressive plans to boost capacity by 2010 might just result in creating more opportunities for violent crime.

The country aims to boost reserves to 40 billion barrels from some 35 billion currently and production to 4 million barrels per day, up from 2.7 million bpd currently when all facilities are operating at capacity. It also wants to reduce flaring, the burning of waste gas, by harnessing the gas in question and to be refining some 50 per cent of its total crude production, against some 12 percent currently.

Now that the most security conscious oil majors and their service providers have put in place rigorous security, industry sources say that both militants and mere criminals looking to make ransom money will increasingly target those companies whose security is lax. With the April elections meant to usher in the country's first ever hand over from one civilian administration to another and with the Gulf of Guinea accounting for an ever-greater portion of US oil imports, Washington is following Nigeria closely. US Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte, in his annual threat assessment earlier this month, singled out three African states, Somalia, Sudan and Nigeria, whose government, he said, "has been unable to stem rising lawlessness and insecurity in its oil-producing region".

Some of his compatriots, such as analyst J Peter Pham, go one step further and warn that the Niger Delta could become a potential breeding ground for Islamic militants.