Nuclear deal fuels Kim's celebrations
Kim Jong-il is not a leader who has to worry about opinion polls.
He has come to expect adulation bordering on worship from his
subjects and, judging by the celebrations for his 65th birthday, the
personality cult is alive and well.
State television whipped up popular enthusiasm with blanket coverage
of popular euphoria.
There were khaki-clad ladies of the People's Army in near hysteria as
the "Great General" visited their artillery unit, well-drilled citizens
executing a mass folk dance in Pyongyang's main square, and party
leaders singing his praises at a snow-bound log cabin - the leader's
mythical birthplace.
This year there has been an extra kick to the celebrations.
Kim Jong-il is credited with a great diplomatic victory over the US
following this week's agreement of aid in return for a nuclear
shut-down.
'Smart and self-confident'
The North Korean people have been told there will only be a temporary
freeze at the nuclear reactor at Yongbyon - a far cry from the full
dismantlement demanded by the US.
A top communist party official in a congratulatory message on the
leader's birthday described last October's nuclear test as "a thrilling
demonstration of the might of the nation".
He's mixed brinkmanship with good-boy behaviour Han Sung-Joo Former
South Korean foreign minister
"Kim Jong-il is very smart and very self-confident," says Wendy
Sherman, a former US envoy on North Korea, who spent 12 hours with him
during a visit to Pyongyang in the dying days of the Clinton
administration.
"He may live a relatively isolated existence but he knows what's
going on in the outside world." Many analysts share the view that North
Korea has won an important round in its confrontation with the US. It
has succeeded in winning aid and easing diplomatic pressure without
agreeing to destroy its nuclear arsenal - estimated at about eight
atomic bombs.
"He's mixed brinkmanship with good-boy behaviour and he's been very
effective in dealing with the outside world," says Han Sung-Joo, a
former South Korean foreign minister.
"He's skilfully exploited internal divisions in other countries and
has gained a lot without giving up that much."
Hostile world
Despite appearances, this is a regime fighting for survival. Kim
Jong-il's genius has been to project an image of strength and make the
very best of a weak hand. In the end, North Korea's persistence wore
down the Bush administration, which began by refusing negotiations and
promising "no rewards for bad behaviour".
After testing a nuclear device last year, Kim Jong-il is now looking
to extract tribute from nervous neighbours and an exasperated US.
Furious haggling can be expected at each stage of the negotiations.
South Korea is only too eager to push ahead with its policy of
reconciliation and is expected to begin shipping large amounts of food
and fertiliser which were suspended at the height of the nuclear crisis
last year.
That could undercut attempts by the US to keep incentives strictly in
line with steps towards nuclear disarmament. North Korea may feel little
incentive to give up a residual nuclear deterrent that keeps the regime
feeling secure in a hostile world.
BBC
|