Mahinda Chinthana:

Vision for the future

Mahinda Chinthana Idiri Dakma (Vision for the future) was launched last week renewing hopes and aspirations among Sri Lankan citizens for a brighter future. President Rajapaksa's national and foreign policies have always been beneficial to the development of the country. It was due to his far-sighted policy planning that the country was able to successfully survive the massive financial crises that hit most of the world economies.

Though huge financial allocations were made on war, the government could yet maintain a decent GDP growth rate during the past four years while implementing mega development projects. The Sunday Observer interviewed Indrajith Aponsu, Senior Lecturer in Economics of the University of Colombo and Dhamma Dissanayake, Senior Lecturer Political Science and Public Policy, University of Colombo who firmly believe that the country will move forward even further during his next tenure.

By Samangie WETTIMUNY

Excerpts:

The financial crisis which hit the world last year was similar or even worse than the crises that affected the world in the 30s. World economies were in shambles. Some of the fast growing economies in Asia such as Singapore and Malaysia experienced negative growth.

Indrajith Aponsu, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Colombo

Dhamma Dissanayake, Senior Lecturer in Political Science and Public Policy, University of Colombo

However, Sri Lanka managed to record a growth rate which was fairly decent and also it was good enough to keep the economy from going into negative growth.

"I would say it is commendable performance when you make a relative comparison to GDP growth in other countries." says Indrajith Aponsu, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Colombo . He attributes it largely to the policies of Mahinda Chinthana . "As I see the main reason is President's decision to create domestic growth through agriculture and other rural sector developments. It is an ingenious move."

Explaining further, he said that earlier more than 50% contribution to GDP was from the Western Province. Also Sri Lankan economy (more than 70%) was based on trade. In particular, our export sector was highly relying on foreign economies such as US and EU. Also we were relying on sectors like tourism. These were the sectors that were very badly affected by the global financial crisis.

"It is at this point that President's decision became so much prominent." "He went into promotion of agriculture in a big way that really compensated for the losses in the areas which were relying on foreign sectors, especially the industrial sector. This in a way had helped keep the GDP growth at a decent level relative to other countries."

As Senior Lecturer in Political Science and Public policy, Dhamma Dissanayake sees 'Mahinda Chinthana Vision for the Future' has almost all the relevant features of a successful manifesto. Though many politicians have the habit of presenting their manifestos before an election , they lack many of the salient features. It seems that they have not paid enough attention to the standard or quality of it.

" In the history we have had only a very few manifestos which were up to the required standard. For example, the manifesto which was presented by Lanka Sama Samaja Party in 1935, manifestos which were presented by former Prime Minister, S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike and by Samagi Peramuna respectively in 1956 and 1970 were much talked of as they were up to the standard. Since then it was President Mahinda Rajapaksa who could come out with a manifesto based on solid background."

As he further noted manifestos which carry mere promises are poor in quality. A manifesto should be always based on solid fundamental, conceptual and theoretical values."A fine example was People's Agenda presented by U.N.P. in 2004. However their present manifesto remains to be a mere set of promises and it is a pity that the rival party could not come out with a sound manifesto."

On the contrary the two manifestos presented by this government have clearly indicated their targets and also the ways and means of achieving them." It clearly states how the country should go forward while attracting other favourable international sources.

Maga Naguma

Indrajith Aponsu too held almost a similar view. He said that there is enormous potential for further development. "Maga Naguma" is a far-sighted program. As he said one of the major bottlenecks Sri Lanka has been facing throughout last several decades was the inability to connect up regions.

"It did not address the major issue of connecting up regions, connecting up provinces with the hub of the economy." If we are to attract more investors and if we want our investors to go out, we have to develop infrastructure-especially the roads. But it is always better to have a proper way to address the peripheral issues that may a rise."

As an economist Aponsu is certain that once the Hambantota Port is completed it will certainly bring immense economic benefits to the country.

"Plantation and garment sectors have always played a major role in our economy and these sectors had been major foreign exchange earners. But now it is time to look into more profitable avenues - it is of utmost necessity to create a mega sector that would pave the way for the emergence of new sectors.

"I think port development will be much bigger than any other sector we had. For the simple reason the geographical location of Sri Lanka. Its location has tremendous advantages both economically and geographically and even politically. It is very strange that none of our successive leaders ever realized the necessity of constructing a harbour. I am sure this will be a major service sector."

Hambantota harbour will pave the way for open-ended development.

Today the country is politically, economically and democratically stable and there is no doubt that the harbour will always be the hub of international attention. As he further noted the sector itself will be a highly value added sector. It will create a whole chain of economic affairs within the country. And also because Sri Lanka is an island nation, the harbour will create the potential for other sub ports to develop centering around mega ports. So this is going to create a major navigational hub. "Perhaps I'd imagine that we'd be a major competitor to one of the major shipping hubs in Asia-Singapore.

When asked about the low interest rates and its impact on investment Aponsu said that low interest rates in banks do not necessarily guarantee higher investment. Higher investment requires other factors such as environment, the future profitability and market opportunities.

"And I think low interest rates supported by political stability, clear economic vision without the major bottleneck, the war, will definitely create a very conducive environment to investments."

Share market reflects the investor confidence in a certain day. People do not walk into a share market if the share market is not going to perform well and the market performance is based on profitability of companies."

That the share market is doing extremely well, may be one of the best markets in the world-reflects the contrary to what some people argue. With the end of war the country will now attract foreign investors for a number of reasons. "Also it is not that investors are just coming here to make a profit and go away, but they will blend themselves into our culture. They will also want to have their people working here.

I am sure this country offers a lot."

As Dr. Aponsu noted with the North East expansion and other potential expansion priorities and linkages - we are establishing links with the rest of the world - investors are really lining up to get into this country.

Infrastructure development programs such as Uthuru Wasanthaya and Nagenahira Navodaya are far sighted projects that would help uplift the living conditions of people in the North and the East. "They of course need a change."

"I can comment on economic development in many perspectives. I think we have had in the first few years one of the finest economic growth performances in the history of Sri Lanka. Second, as stated earlier when the whole world was crumbling, we were able to maintain the economic growth within the ratio of 3-4% which I think is extremely commendable."

Industrial sector is one of the areas that could really pave the way for huge employment generation, high level income value addition, high sustainability and faster growth momentum. So there is no possibility that we can generate something in the short term and the medium term, unless we refocus on industrial sector and look for some viable industry which will complement and supplement the garment and other sectors.

As Aponsu sees in this particular four years, the way we have reached the grass roots level has made the income distribution far more even and widespread.

Foreign policy

As Dhamma Dissanayake says only two Sri Lankan leaders had so far been able to handle Sri Lanka's foreign policy independently without succumbing unnecessarily to international forces . First was former Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike and the second is none other than President Mahinda Rajapaksa. He has always been able to maintain the image and dignity of the country.

As mentioned earlier his emphasis on national economy helped Sri Lanka to face global financial crisis successfully.

Why should we reelect him as President.?

"Is it solely as a gesture of gratitude that we should reelect Mahinda Rajapaksa as president. " I asked Dhamma Dissanayake.

" Not necessarily." "If a person wants to cast his/her vote to Mahinda Rajapaksa as a way of expressing gratitude that is fine, but as I see that is not the reason why we should vote for him.

His capabilities are far ahead of his chief rival candidate. He proved his credentials by ending the LTTE terrorism which was ruining the country for the past thirty years, and also by implementing massive development projects ranging from agriculture to infrastructure development. The way he handled international relations is commendable.

He has proved himself to be a clever leader, a democrat at heart who represents a well-established political party.